June 13, 2022 @ 7:53 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fourth YouTube video “China Stocks Soar on End to Tech Crackdown” went up today. In the past few weeks–at least before the inflation/interest rate meltdown in U.S. markets–I’ve seen an uptick in big China stocks...
June 13, 2022 @ 7:44 pm | Breaking News, Buy Hold Sell |
The latest Consumer Expectations survey (that is for May) from the New York Federal Reserve shows U.S. households’ anticipate inflation will rise at a 6.6% annual rate over the next year. That’s up from April expectations for a 6.3% rate. The May...
June 10, 2022 @ 10:04 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, TFC |
My one-hundred-and-forty-third YouTube video “Quick Pick Truist Financial” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Truist Financial Corp (TFC), a “super-regional” bank based in the Southeast. Bank stocks have been down recently on rising...
June 10, 2022 @ 9:57 pm | Breaking News |
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation in May rose to a new annual high rate of 8.6% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, June 10. Headline prices rose 1% from April. The big drivers were, as expected, food (with prices up at a 10.1% annual rate)...
June 9, 2022 @ 9:53 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-second YouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds...
June 9, 2022 @ 1:37 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, TSM |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s largest independent chip producer, expects revenue to grow about 30% in 2022. Sales growth this year should accelerate from 2021’s 24.9% (in dollar terms), Chairman Mark Liu said at the company’s annual...
June 9, 2022 @ 1:34 pm | Breaking News |
On Wednesday, June 8, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fueling rapid inflation and slowing global growth. (The OECD represents 38 countries including most of the world’s advanced economies.) “We are...
June 7, 2022 @ 7:42 pm | Breaking News, COST, Jubak Picks Portfolio, WMT |
Target (TGT) cut its profit outlook for the second time in three weeks. The company will attack oaring inventories in discretionary categories such as home furnishings with price mark downs, cancelling orders from vendors, and “off-loading excess inventory. (To...
June 7, 2022 @ 7:34 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, NTR |
Logic says that demand for fertilizer should be soaring as North American farmers look to increase production at a time when grain prices are near record highs thanks to the severe reduction in exports from the Ukraine and Russia. Logic, however, looks to be wrong. An...
June 6, 2022 @ 7:49 pm | ALB, Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
My one-hundredth-and-forty-first YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Danger of a Lithium Drought” went up today. My Trend of the Week video looks at the effects of Chile’s 15-year drought on global lithium production and prices. In particular, I look...
June 6, 2022 @ 7:40 pm | Breaking News |
As of June 3, FactSet reports, analysts had cut their earnings estimates during the first two months of the quarter for second quarter earnings by companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 by 1.3% to $55.36 from $56.06. How significant is that? And what does...
June 3, 2022 @ 7:56 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-fortieth YouTube video “Quick Pick Wyndham Hotels” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Wyndham Hotels (WH), which owns a large portion (40%) of the U.S. market in branded economy and midscale hotels. This is gearing up to be a...
June 3, 2022 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News, Buy Hold Sell, You May Have Missed |
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists had expected the economy to add 318.000 jobs for the month. In April the economy added a revised 436,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Economists...
June 2, 2022 @ 10:56 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-ninth YouTube video “Beware the Dot Plot” went up today. The next Fed meeting is June 15, and I think there isn’t much to worry about in terms of a coming rate increase (we know it will be 50 basis points, which the market...
June 2, 2022 @ 10:44 pm | Breaking News |
Another Federal Reserve official talked the interest rate increase talk today. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard told CNBC that expectations for half-percentage-point increases in interest rates this month and next were reasonable, and that she saw no case for...
June 2, 2022 @ 10:34 pm | Breaking News, DAL, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
So far it’s unanimous: On Wednesday, June 1, Delta Air Lines (DAL) joined United Airlines (UAL) and Southwest (LUV) in projecting rising demand in the second quarter, higher fuel costs, and staffing shortages severe enough to lead to cuts in flights. Delta said...
June 1, 2022 @ 7:18 pm | Breaking News |
Oil prices went a strong NOWHERE today, June 1, as the oil market struggled with news of the end of lockdowns in China, which would lead to higher demand, and speculation that OPEC would act to increase production. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed up...
May 31, 2022 @ 11:09 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-eighth YouTube video “Trend of the Week:Housing market cools” went up today. We’re seeing some of the first effects of the Fed’s increase in interest rates in the cooling of the housing market. In Austin, for...
May 31, 2022 @ 7:44 pm | Breaking News, COP, Jubak Picks Portfolio, PXD |
The European Union has finally found a way to agree on a partial ban on oil imports from Russia. The group has agreed to an immediate ban on imports arriving by sea. That covers about two-thirds of Russian imports. To get Hungary’s vote for the partial ban, the...
May 30, 2022 @ 10:53 pm | Breaking News |
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said today, May 30, that he wants to keep raising interest rates in half-percentage point steps until inflation is easing back toward the central bank’s goal of 2%. “I support tightening policy by another 50 basis points for...
May 29, 2022 @ 11:07 pm | Breaking News |
I’m looking for a test this week of the new “Fed Call” theory. A few weeks ago, before last week’s rally anyway, the theory starting going around that the “Fed Put” (sometimes called the “Powell Put”) was dead. The Fed...
May 27, 2022 @ 5:38 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh YouTube video “We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
May 27, 2022 @ 5:35 pm | Breaking News |
In today’s YouTube video I argue that the Federal Reserve will have engineer a recession if it is serious about bringing inflation under control. This post gets more into the specific details of why I think that’s true than the video does. (I suggest...
May 27, 2022 @ 5:32 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
On Tuesday, Snap (SNAP) fell 43.08% as the company lowered guidance for the remainder of 2022. On Thursday, the shares were just 4.59%. At today’s close of $14.81 they’re still trading well below the 50-day moving average of $29.86. Should you chase them...
May 25, 2022 @ 4:48 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, WEAT |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick WEAT” went up today. I’m continuing my recent focus on wheat prices as they continue to rise. Higher wheat prices are the result of a perfect storm: the ongoing war in Ukraine, a blockade of...
May 25, 2022 @ 4:26 pm | Breaking News |
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 4 meeting shows central bank officials in agreement on the ned for 50-basis-point interest rate increases at the June and July meetings. And then, the minutes say, the Fed would respond to developments in the economy either...
May 24, 2022 @ 6:39 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
Snap (SNAP), the online company best known for its SnapChat platform, closed down 43.08% today, May 24. On April 21 when the company released its first quarter earnings report, the company had forecast second quarter revenue growth of 20% to 25%. That was already...
May 23, 2022 @ 10:54 pm | Breaking News |
Looking for the bottom on this plunge or bear market (true bear in the NASDAQ and near bear market in the Standard & Poor’s 500)? Despite the pain we’re all feeling in our portfolios, I think we’ve got a way to go. I base that conclusion on both...
May 23, 2022 @ 10:47 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, NVDA |
The most important indicator of market direction and sentiment this week will be Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report for the quarter that ended in April on Wednesday, May 25. Wall Street analysts and expect earnings of $1.09 a share. (That’s the consensus. The...
May 20, 2022 @ 3:13 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, PANW |
I’m actually surprised that shares of cyber-security company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose only 10.7% in after-hours trading after the company reported adjusted fiscal third quarter earnings of $1.79 a share. That was ahead of the adjusted earnings of $1.68 a...