All the drama is about the size of the Fed interest rate cut
I expect the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate at the Wednesday, September 18, meting of its Open Market Committee. It will be the first in a series of cuts that is likely to include 3 cuts in 2024 (at the September, November and December Fed...
Weak Chinese economy takes toll on copper demand, prices–wait to buy SCCO
China’s copper imports in August dropped by 12.3% from the previous year, preliminary official Chinese customs data showed on Tuesday, September 10. It’s yet another sign that the slowdown in Chinese economy is rippling out into the global economy. Copper...
All-items CPI inflation falls; core inflation above expectations
Definitely a mixed bag in the Consumer Price Index inflation report for August released yesterday. I think the mixed results lower the odds of an aggressive 50 basis point interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. But they keep the odds of a...
Apple loses its appeal of $14 billion EU tax judgment
Apple (AAPL) today lost its court fight over a €13 billion ($14.4 billion) Irish tax bill. The European Union’s Court of Justice in Luxembourg backed a landmark 2016 decision that Ireland broke state-aid law by giving Apple an unfair advantage by awarding the company...
Even long-term China bulls are throwing in the towel on Chinese stocks
With Chinese stocks looking at an unprecedented fourth consecutive losing year, even some of Wall Street’s most conspicuous China bulls are throwing in the towel. Over the past two weeks, long-standing China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management, Nomura Holdings, and...
Could Apple’s new iPhones due Monday disappoint Wall Street?
Could we get an AI “nothing-burger” from Apple (AAPL) on Monday, September 9, when the company rolls out its latest iPhone?. Which are supposed to mark Apple’s advent as a serious smartphone AI player. All indications are that Apple’s AI features on the...
Jobs number weak enough to raise fears for the economy but not weak enough to cement 50 basis point cut on September 18
Today’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the worst of both worlds. The increase in jobs of just 142,000 in August, coupled with downward revisions from June and July was enough to raise fears that the economy is stalling. And that the Federal...
Adding Kenvue (KVUE) to my Dividend Portfolio
To adapt the words of Estelle Constanza upon being served merlot, Kenvue? Never heard of it. Is it new? Kenvue (KVUEO). like merlot, isn’t exactly new. As a stand-alone stock, Kenvue dates back only to May 2023, but the company is a spin off of Johnson &...
August deja vu? Bank of Japan says it will raise rates; U.S. stocks tumble
Coincidence? On Tuesday September 3 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if inflation continues in Japan. And on Tuesday U.S. stocks plunged. Sure seems like a replay of the August rout when U.S....
Nvidia drops another 9.5% on the day
So much for my feeling on Monday that a 7% drop in Nvidia (NVDA) after the company’s August 28 earnings report was about as big a dip as investors would get and that it was time to buy Nvidia shares. The stock dropped another 9.5% on Tuesday. I’d sure like to have...
An increase in the unemployment rate is likely in Friday’s jobs report
The next big jobs report, the Employment Situation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for August will hit the wires before the stock market opens on Friday, September 6. Has the 100% certainty among investors and traders that the Federal Reserve will cut interest...
The argument for adding more gold even now
Gold hit a new all-time high yesterday of $2554 an ounce on the Comex for December delivery. Gold’s 20% or so gain in 2024vto date (as of August 26) is a result of strong central-bank buying plus Asian purchases plus anticipation that the Federal Reserve was about to...
This market has an AI problem–AI companies aren’t making money
Remember the good old days–say, 2023–when all you had to do was slap AI in the name of a company and the stock would soar? I kept waiting for AI Burgers made from AI cows, or AI Shoes, which used AI machine learning algorithms to tell you what size shoe...
The big thing to watch for in today’s Nvidia after-the-close earnings report: Blackwell delays
“Several publications have reported potential delays in the production and shipment of Nvidia’s new Blackwell chips. Nvidia has not commented or confirmed this, but most of our channel checks suggest that the delays should be relatively short-lived, likely due to a...
Big downward revision in jobs locks in September interest rate cut by the Fed, puts November cut in play
Monthly employment reports overstated the number of job created by the U.S. economy by 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March 2024, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday, August 21. That revision, part of the annual process that reconciles job reports...
A soft landing–good for the economy but, I worry, maybe not for stocks
No doubt about it. A soft-landing would be way better for the economy than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. No big spike in unemployment. Decent growth in real personal incomes. Controlled and relatively low inflation. Real interest rates...
Gain in consumer sentiment adds to soft-landing scenario
U.S. consumer sentiment rose in early August for the first time in five months as consumers raised expectations on their finances and on subsiding inflation. The University of Michigan sentiment index climbed to 67.8 from 66.4 in July, according to the preliminary...
So much for those recession fears
What happened to all that selling? And the conviction that the U.S. economy ws headed for a recession? The Standard & Poor’s 500 finished Thursday, August 15, with another up day for a 6-day rally that has pushed the index up 6.6%.Treasury yields surged with the...
Could China be looking at a repeat of Japan’s no growth decades?
A plunge in new corporate borrowing in China combined with Chinese households preferring to repay debt rather than expand borrowing saw bank loans in China shrink last month for the first time since July 2005. That deepened China’s years-long battle with weak credit...
CPI inflation report this week is one last barrier to September interest rate cut
Expect a final inflation test this week before the Federal Reserve meets on September 18. Unless there’s a huge surprise in the Wednesday, August 14, CPI report, the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time at that meeting. The Federal Reserve Bank of...
Next big volatility day? Looks like tomorrow, Thursday
The options market is implying the S&P 500 Index will move 1.2% in either direction Thursday morning on the report on U.S. initial and continuing claims for unemployment. The options market is pointing to about that same level of potential volatility on August...
A 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed in September? I don’t think so
Briefly on Monday’s scary stock market volatility, traders and investors decided that the Federal Reserve would make its first interest rate cut at its September 18 meeting not a “business-as-usual” 25 basis points but a “market emergency” 50 basis points. On...
Japan taketh away and Japan giveth–today’s rally in Tokyo wipes out most of yesterday’s loss
oday, Tuesday August 6, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 10.23% in Tokyo. That erased most of Monday’s 12% loss. And it led to the U.S. futures market opening higher and U.S. stock indexes moving up today. At the close in New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was...
Could the stock correction be all about Japan? And close to an end?
Okay, the correction in the NASDAQ and the near correction in the Standard & Poor’s 500 isn’t all about Japan. U.S. stock valuations are stretched. Air is coming out of the AI bubble. The U.S. economy is slowing But to me those factors don’t explain the stunning...
August is making the stock correction scarier: Is the cure September?
August. Yeah, I know you can read a calendar, but take a moment to think about how the extraordinary August economic news vacuum feeds into the current market plunge. It’s a good environment for downside volatility. No Federal Reserve meeting in August so no interest...
Weak July jobs report, tick up in unemployment rate send stocks tumbling on recession fears
The U.S.economy added only 114,000 jobs in July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected an increase of 175,000 jobs in the month. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3% in July, exceeding all 69 estimates by economists....
September it is: Fed signals September interest rate cut
At Wednesday’s meeting the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest-rate cut could come as soon as September. “The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook,...
McDonald’s sales drop for first time in four years–this is what a McDonald’s economy looks like
Global sales at McDonald’s (MCD) store locations open at least a year fell 1% in the April-June period, the first decline since the final quarter of 2020, the company reported in announcing second quarter earnings. In the United States, sales fell nearly 1%....
The latest report on the ISM manufacturing index came in at 46.8 for July, lower than expected and down 1.7 points from the 48.5 recorded in June. (In this index ny reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.) That sign of contraction fueled fears that the Federal Reserve may have waited too long to cut interest rates–a rate cut seems to be in the cards for the central bank’s September meeting–and that the U.S. economy is in danger of slipping into recession. The stock market tumbled Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 500 points, or about 1.2%. The S&P 500 dropped about 75 points, or almost 1.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index was down more than 400 points, or about 2.3%. Money flowed into bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time February.
The latest report on the ISM manufacturing index came in at 46.8 for July, lower than expected and down 1.7 points from the 48.5 recorded in June. (In this index ny reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.) That sign of contraction fueled fears that the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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