Is a guidance cut from Texas Instruments another sign of a top?
Here’s the indicator that I’m watching and my strategy for staying in the market or deciding to step aside. Looking at the aggregate forecast for earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500, I think it’s reasonable to think that third quarter...
Good news: What we now know about this coming earnings season
It’s still very early in third quarter earnings season, but I think we can already see a pattern. First, for the quarter, it looks like a large percentage of companies will report earnings above analyst estimates. Second, CEOs are pushing out their worries about...
Retail sales stronger than expected in September
U.S. retail sales strengthened in September by more than forecast. The U.S. economy continues to show solid growth. And the economic strength continues to say that there’s less need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual 50 basis points...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing beats on earnings and raises forecast
Shares of global chipmaking powerhouse Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) rose 9.79% today to hit a record high after the chipmaker topped quarterly estimates and raised its target for 2024 revenue growth. The company—-the main chip manufacturer for Nvidia...
Today I added VMC as the third pick to my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for an old rally” on my subscription site
Here’s what I wrote today when I added Vulcan Materials to my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for a old rally” on my subscription JubakAM.com site. Pick #3; Vulcan Materials (VMC). As stock prices have kept climbing, it’s become harder and harder to find good...
CPI core inflation ticks upward; 25 basis point cut in November now consensus
Today, both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the month, with a month to month 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the core.On an annual basis, the headline index...
Wait! No soft landing! No more rate cuts! The market freaks out again!
It’s back! Fear that the economy is so strong that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as sharply or as quickly as expected. In the last few days, following on a surprisingly strong September jobs report, the market has gone from giving 50/50 odds to a second...
Earnings worries on deck
This week brings a transition from a market dominated by speculation about the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to worries about earnings and the growth rate for corporate profits. Don’t worry we’ll still see plenty of economic news with the potential...
Strong September jobs report lowers expectations for 50 basis point cut from the Fed
Odds on a 50 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve at its November 7 meeting plunged to 0% Friday on the CME FedWatch tool after a strong jobs report for September showed a tick down in the unemployment rate. On September 27, the CME FedWatch tool, which calculates...
Micron surge shows why it’s so hard to leave this market
This is why it’s so hard to sell this market in spite of stunningly high valuations. “This” is the 14.7% gain on September 26 in shares of Micron Technology after the company announced results for the fiscal fourth quarter and forecasts for fiscal first quarter...
China fires the big bazooka again–a sign of a panic?
There was a whiff of panic to the big moves by the People’s Bank today. China’s central bank cut a key short-term interest rate and announced plans to reduce the reserve ratio, the amount of money banks must hold in reserve, to the lowest level since at least 2018....
Think about gold and gold miners as two different asset classes right now
I think you want to own gold–through something like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)–right now to profit from decreasing interest rates at most of the world’s central banks, from global macro uncertainty, from the possibility of domestic violence in the...
So what happened to the big market crash?
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again...
The Fed cuts by 50 basis points–don’t make too much of the dip in stocks today
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points Wednesday. The vote for a 50 basis point cut was 11-1 with the only negative vote–for a 25 basis point cut rather than 50–the first dissent in the Jerome Powell era. The Fed’s Dot...
Apple’s Meh! iPhone 16 update begins to bite pre-orders and stock
Apple (AAPL) shares were down 2.78% today, Monday September 16, as pre-order sales to the iPhone 16 showed lower than expected demand for the new phones after a lackluster update that included fewer AI features than competitive smartphones. Pre-order sales, which...
All the drama is about the size of the Fed interest rate cut
I expect the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate at the Wednesday, September 18, meting of its Open Market Committee. It will be the first in a series of cuts that is likely to include 3 cuts in 2024 (at the September, November and December Fed...
Weak Chinese economy takes toll on copper demand, prices–wait to buy SCCO
China’s copper imports in August dropped by 12.3% from the previous year, preliminary official Chinese customs data showed on Tuesday, September 10. It’s yet another sign that the slowdown in Chinese economy is rippling out into the global economy. Copper...
All-items CPI inflation falls; core inflation above expectations
Definitely a mixed bag in the Consumer Price Index inflation report for August released yesterday. I think the mixed results lower the odds of an aggressive 50 basis point interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. But they keep the odds of a...
Apple loses its appeal of $14 billion EU tax judgment
Apple (AAPL) today lost its court fight over a €13 billion ($14.4 billion) Irish tax bill. The European Union’s Court of Justice in Luxembourg backed a landmark 2016 decision that Ireland broke state-aid law by giving Apple an unfair advantage by awarding the company...
Even long-term China bulls are throwing in the towel on Chinese stocks
With Chinese stocks looking at an unprecedented fourth consecutive losing year, even some of Wall Street’s most conspicuous China bulls are throwing in the towel. Over the past two weeks, long-standing China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management, Nomura Holdings, and...
Could Apple’s new iPhones due Monday disappoint Wall Street?
Could we get an AI “nothing-burger” from Apple (AAPL) on Monday, September 9, when the company rolls out its latest iPhone?. Which are supposed to mark Apple’s advent as a serious smartphone AI player. All indications are that Apple’s AI features on the...
Jobs number weak enough to raise fears for the economy but not weak enough to cement 50 basis point cut on September 18
Today’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the worst of both worlds. The increase in jobs of just 142,000 in August, coupled with downward revisions from June and July was enough to raise fears that the economy is stalling. And that the Federal...
Adding Kenvue (KVUE) to my Dividend Portfolio
To adapt the words of Estelle Constanza upon being served merlot, Kenvue? Never heard of it. Is it new? Kenvue (KVUEO). like merlot, isn’t exactly new. As a stand-alone stock, Kenvue dates back only to May 2023, but the company is a spin off of Johnson &...
August deja vu? Bank of Japan says it will raise rates; U.S. stocks tumble
Coincidence? On Tuesday September 3 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if inflation continues in Japan. And on Tuesday U.S. stocks plunged. Sure seems like a replay of the August rout when U.S....
Nvidia drops another 9.5% on the day
So much for my feeling on Monday that a 7% drop in Nvidia (NVDA) after the company’s August 28 earnings report was about as big a dip as investors would get and that it was time to buy Nvidia shares. The stock dropped another 9.5% on Tuesday. I’d sure like to have...
An increase in the unemployment rate is likely in Friday’s jobs report
The next big jobs report, the Employment Situation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for August will hit the wires before the stock market opens on Friday, September 6. Has the 100% certainty among investors and traders that the Federal Reserve will cut interest...
The argument for adding more gold even now
Gold hit a new all-time high yesterday of $2554 an ounce on the Comex for December delivery. Gold’s 20% or so gain in 2024vto date (as of August 26) is a result of strong central-bank buying plus Asian purchases plus anticipation that the Federal Reserve was about to...
This market has an AI problem–AI companies aren’t making money
Remember the good old days–say, 2023–when all you had to do was slap AI in the name of a company and the stock would soar? I kept waiting for AI Burgers made from AI cows, or AI Shoes, which used AI machine learning algorithms to tell you what size shoe...
The big thing to watch for in today’s Nvidia after-the-close earnings report: Blackwell delays
“Several publications have reported potential delays in the production and shipment of Nvidia’s new Blackwell chips. Nvidia has not commented or confirmed this, but most of our channel checks suggest that the delays should be relatively short-lived, likely due to a...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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