Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week–The Global Debt Bomb Is Ticking
My one-hundred-and-fifty-third YouTube video “Trend of the Week: The Global Debt Bomb is Ticking” went up today. Overly dramatic? I don’t think so. In this week’s video, I look at the few countries that are leading what looks to me like a...
American Airlines up 10% on positive revenue forecast, drags Delta and United higher
Today, July 12, shares of American Airlines (AAL) closed up 9.98%. The company announced that it expects to post a pretax profit of $585 million in the second quarter as vacationers pack planes during the summer peak season. The company expects revenue to be about 12%...
Tune in to my live YouTube Q&A tomorrow, Wednesday July 13, at 5 p.m. New York time
I’ll be answering the (financial and stock market) questions already submitted by readers of this site as well as taking live questions from readers. Go to my YouTube channel (don’t tell me you don’t subscribe!) at 5 p.m. New York time tomorrow,...
Adding Invesco Dollar Bullish Fund ETF to three portfolios
In my July 7 YouTube video: “Quick Pick UUP” I added the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) to my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. (To replace the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) in that portfolio. More on that in another post today.)...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week India’s at a Danger Point
My one-hundred-and-fifty-sixth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: India’s at a Danger Point” went up today. This week’s Trend video is a follow-up to my piece on the “Global Debt Bomb” from last week. Maybe default by Sri Lania or...
Why “When will the recession arrive? isn’t the most important question right now
If the recession isn’t here already, it’s only because of a technicality. In the first-quarter U.S. GDP contracted at a 1.6% annualized rate. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker forwards that in the second-quarter GDP will contract at a 2.1%...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick UUP Dollar ETF
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fifth YouTube video “Quick Pick UUP Dollar ETF” went up today. In my video yesterday (if you missed it, go watch!) I explained why a strong dollar has hit commodity stocks hard, and why I think the dollar will continue to be...
Fed’s June minutes increase odds of a 75 basis point increase at July 27 meeting
In my opinion, this was the most important statement in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting released today: Fed officials “recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: Strong Dollar Hits Stocks–3 Things to Do
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fourth YouTube video “Strong Dollar Hits Stocks–3 Things to Do” went up today. The biggest factor driving falling prices in commodities (ahem, oil) is the rising strength of the dollar. Believe it or not, the US economy is...
Adding Kimberly-Clark to my Dividend Portfolio tomorrow, July 6.
As I said in my recent video “Quick Pick Kimberly-Clark,” I’m adding this stock to my Dividend Portfolio effect tomorrow July 6. The stock pays a dividend of 3.39%. That’s not knock-your-socks-off stuff, but very good for a very defensive...
Today’s stock market consensus: Recession soon, Fed rate cuts accelerated
Stocks sold off heavily this morning with the Standard & Poor’s down 2% and the NASDAQ Composite off 1.9%. They have rallied in the afternoon so that the S&P 500 is up 0.16% % and the NASDAQ is up 1.75% at the close. What we’re seeing is the...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Kimberly-Clark
My one-hundred-and-fifty-second YouTube video “Quick Pick Kimberly Clark” went up today. This week I’m looking at Kimberly-Clark (KMB), a consumer staples producer that I’m sure many of you are familiar with. I think in the coming recession,...
Signs that inflation maybe peaking not enough for stocks today
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at an annual rate of 4.7% in May. That was below economists’ expectations and a slight dip from the 4.9% annual rate in April. If you were so...
Watch My New YouTube Video: Position Your Portfolio for the Recession–But What Kind of Recession?
My one-hundred-and-fifty-first YouTube video “Position Your Portfolio for the Recessioin–But What Kind of Recession”” went up today. I see it like this: How you should position your portfolio for the coming recession depends largely on how bad...
Consumer staples outperform on Wednesday
It’s not surprising given the greater than expected decline in U.S. first quarter GDP reported on Wednesday, which followed on the slump in consumer confidence reported Tuesday, that stocks in the consumer staples sector outperformed both consumer discretionary...
On third thought, U.S. economy slightly weaker than expected in first quarter
The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized pace of 1.6% in the first quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP released Wednesday, June 29, showed a 1.6% annualized drop in economic growth in the first quarter of...
Bad day for consumer stocks; good day for commodity shares
The Conference Board’s latest reading on consumer confidence showed consumer expectations in June fell to their lowest level since 2013. The consumer confidence index for June fell to 98.7 from 103.2 in May, below expectations for a reading of 100. The...
2 July Volatility Events to Watch Out For (or Maybe Profit From)
I see 2 big volatility events ahead of us in July that are powerful enough to move stocks. Get on the right side of these and there’s money to be made. Here’s how I handicap these two events. First, the Consumer Price Index report on inflation for June is...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Trend of the Week You Can’t Trade Random Volatility”
My one-hundred-and-fiftieth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: You Can’t Trade Random Volatility” went up today. I like volatility–much of the time. It’s a source of potential profits. However, when the volatility seems random as it does...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Cheniere Energy
My one-hundred-and-forty-ninth YouTube video “Quick Pick: Cheniere Energy” went up today. My Quick Pick this week is Cheniere Energy (LNG), a liquified natural gas producer that I currently own in my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and plan to add to...
As Fed cools the housing market, Lennar starts cutting home prices, adds incentives to buyers
Home builder Lennar (LEN) has started trimming prices and offering buyer incentives to bolster sales. The bad news here is that a slowing housing market is an early indicator of rising odds of a recession. The good news is that this is supposed to be what...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation”
My one-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation” went up today. In front of the Senate Finance Committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed has all the tools it needs to fight inflation–except,...
Existing home sales hit two-year low in May–as prices see record high and mortgage rates rise
U.S. existing home sales tumbled to a two-year low in May as prices jumped to a record high-topping the $400,000 mark for the first time- and mortgage rates increased further, the National Association of Realtors reported today, June 21. It was the fourth straight...
Consumer savings rate plunges to post-Great Recession low; bad news on recession odds
A deeply troubling look at consumer balances from Statista. Well, deeply troubling if you hope that the United States will avoid a recession. (Frankly, I’m in the “Hope we avoid but I’m afraid we won’t camp.”) In April, Americans saved...
Biting the (Federal Reserve) bullet and selling two yield ETFs out of my Dividend Portfolio
I’ve overstayed my welcome in the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and the VanEck Preferred Securities ex-Financials ETF (PFXF), but with the Federal Reserve accelerating its interest rate increases, I think selling these two members of my Dividend...
Selling Booking Holdings out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio
As I noted in my “Bear Growls Louder for Consumer Stocks” post, consumer spending on services is looking weaker by the day and consumers seem to be trimming plans for summer travel. Bookings are slowing at airlines and hotels, for example. And it looks...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates
My one-hundred-and-forty-seventh YouTube video “Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates” went up today. My Trend of the Week video this week looks at hedge fund gurus who have been yelling that the Federal Reserve needs even bigger interest rate increases...
Bear growls louder for consumer stocks
I’m seeing growing negativity on the U.S. economy and on the timing and depth of a U.S. recession. I think it’s important to note that the stock market and the economy aren’t perfectly correlated. Stocks can go up even as the economy weakens on...
The speculative money is alive and “well” during Bear Market rally days
Friday, June 17, was a modestly up day for most of the indexes. The Standard & Poor’s 500, for example, gained 0.22% and the NASDAQ was up a stronger 1.43%. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13% on the day.) But you’d never know that the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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