Another crack in the jobs market
Job openings in the United States fell in June to a nine-month low. The number of available positions decreased to 10.7 million in the month from an upwardly revised 11.3 million in May, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed...
What to sell in a Bear Market rally–and two sells for Monday, Omnicom and Alcoa
I ended my recent post “This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for” on my subscription JubakAM.com site by saying “Enjoy the ride but look to sell shares of companies that look most exposed to the return of recession/high...
I expect a test of the Bear Market rally this week–and maybe an extension of the move upwards
In July the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 9.1%. The index went up 4.3% in the last week alone. The obvious question is how much longer does this rally have to run? The big test comes on Friday, August 5, with the jobs report for July. If it’s too...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Earnings Not as Bad as They Could Be
My one-hundred-and-sixty-second YouTube video “Earnings Not as Bad as They Could Be” went up today. Microsoft (MSFT) serves as my example. We’re seeing some companies that, despite very meager earnings growth, give investors the impression that...
Inflation, wage numbers today are bad news for “soft landing” believers
Inflation, measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 6.8% in the twelve months that ended in June. That’s the fastest rate of growth since 1982. Core PCE inflation (that is after removing food and energy...
This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for
After looking like it was over earlier in the week with a significant pull back on Tuesday, July 26, stocks have rallied in the last two days, gaining 3.85% by the Thursday, July 28 close from that Tuesday low. And right now all the ducks are lined up in a row for a...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick First Majestic Silver
My one-hundred-and-sixty-first YouTube video “Quick Pick First Majestic Silver” went up today. This hasn’t been a great year for precious metals hedges. However, allow me to make the case for First Majestic Silver (AG), given the coming recession and...
GDP dips at 0.9% annual rate–it’s an unofficial recession
U.S. GDP dropped by 0.2% in the second quarter (quarter over quarter) to a 0.9% annual rate of contraction. We won’t get an official call of “recession” at the earliest until economists see the labor market head south and the economic cycle guys...
I’m selling Chipotle Mexican Grill out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio
In yesterday’s YouTube video ( Beat the coming recession) I explained that a recession works by peeling the sock market onion. With each step down in the economy, more stocks report negative surprises or issue negative guidance. Investors and traders sell those...
Fed raises interest rates by 75 basis points and stocks soar–how come?
This afternoon the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. It was the second straight 75 basis don’t increase and the fourth increase in interest rates this year. Stocks soared. The Standard &...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Investing to beat the coming recession
My one-hundred-and-sixtieth YouTube video “Investing to beat the coming recession” went up today. I’m back, after a week’s hiatus. This week I’m sharing some thoughts about the market trials and tribulations of Snap (SNAP) and Alphabet...
Walmart’s warning shrinks pool of safe stocks–Coke and McDonald’s benefit on strong earnings today
With Walmart (WMT) shares down 7.74% as of noon New York time today, July 26, on the company’s warning yesterday about falling revenue, the pool of safe consumer stocks continues to shrink. Which is bad if you owned Walmart or Dollar General (DG), also down...
Natural gas, corn, and wheat lead commodities higher today
At the close today, July 26, the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) was up 2.55% and the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) was ahead 4.11% Both of those commodity plays outgained the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) with its 1.38% move higher. But for consistent gains–and the...Walmart’s cut to profit forecast signals death of hopes for soft landing for the economy
Walmart (WMT) cut its profit outlook after the market close on Monday, July 25. The company isn’t scheduled to report July quarter earnings until August 16. Walmart shares dropped 9.94% in after-hours trading. Adjusted earnings per share will fall as much as 13%...
Pfizer and Moderna to see higher profits from Covid vaccines
The federal government has agreed to purchase 105 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech’s rebooted vaccine for $3.2 billion, the Washington Post reported on Friday. At $30.50 a dose, that’s a premium over the initial contracts the government made for the original...
A very busy week ahead–Ukraine and commodities, tech stock earnings, and, of course, the Fed on interest rates
What a week ahead. I’d expect speculation about what the Federal Reserve will say on Wednesday to dominate a very lengthy slate of market news. No real suspense about whether or not the Fed will raise rates at its July 27 meeting. The central bank has made it...
Initial claims for unemployment edge upwards ahead of surge in announced layoffs
Initial claims for unemployment totaled 251,000 for the week ended July 16, up 7,000 from the week before, the Labor Department reported today, July 21. Economists were looking for 240,000 initial claims. That was the highest weekly number since November 13, 2021 The...
Rally or rotation? I vote for rotation
In the last week Technology stocks, and chip stocks in particular, have staged a very impressive rally off of a really low base. Nvidia (NVDA), for example, is up 17.43% in the week that ended on July 21. That still leaves the stock down 39.43% for the year. Advanced...
Chips bills moves closer to passing; and the winners are…
The Chips for America Act looks headed to a cloture vote in the Senate on Thursday. As the $52 billion bill now stands, it includes $39 billion for semiconductor companies to “build, expand, or modernize domestic facilities.” This funding is targeted at new...
Remember, natural gas isn’t just for heating; air conditioning demand sends natural gas for August delivery up 10.2% today
There are the base-load power plants that run all the time and meet the bulk of normal electricity demand. And then there are the power plants that are only intermittently called into service when demand spikes. In the United States the majority of the plants used to...
Coming to a server near you: A redesigned JubakPicks.com
It’s been months in the works, but I finally feel confident enough to say that sometime this month, you’ll start seeing a redesigned JubakPicks.com This is the first head-to-toe redesign of the site since its launch in 2010. Besides looking spiffier, with...
Today chip stocks climbed on prospect for Senate vote on $50 billion subsidy bill
The bill, known as the Chips for America Act, is a pared-down version of a broader set of competition measures and would authorize $52 billion in grants and loans for chip manufacturers, as well as a new, four-year 25% investment tax credit for chip making. Senate...The problem with the economy in one number
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released figures for weekly earnings for full-time workers in the second quarter. Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 118.9 million full-time wage and salary workers were $1,041 in the second quarter of 2022. That...
The big news in bank earnings for stocks as a whole: JPM and Citi are suspending stock buybacks
Given the big role that stock buybacks play in sustaining rallies and driving stock prices higher, news in earnings reports this past week that both Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are suspending their stock buyback programs is a big deal. Not just for these...
Selling Citigroup out of my Dividend Portfolio after Friday’s 13% pop
Shares of Citigroup climbed by 13.23% on Friday, July 15, after the company reported earnings of $2.19 a share. Revenue came in at $19.6 billion. Wall Street had projected earnings of $1.689 a share and revenue of $18.4 billion. So it’s not surprising that the...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Hedging With Commodities Lives
My one-hundred-and-fifty-ninth YouTube video “Trend of the Week Hedging with Commodities Lives” went up today. The strong dollar has knocked commodity plays around. But the reasons for buying these hedges still hold. Inflation. Supply shortages (especially...
Apple’s plan to slow hiring sends stocks into reverse
The Standard & Poor’s 500 was on track for a decent day–the index was up 0.79% at 12:43 p.m. New York time–and then Bloomberg broke a story, picked up everywhere, reporting that Apple (AAPL) intended to slow hiring and reduce spending growth...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: “Two Ideas for Shorting Emerging Markets”
My one-hundred-and-eighth YouTube video “Two Ideas for Shorting Emerging Markets” went up today. I’m firmly in the negative camp on emerging markets. If you want to profit from the downward move in these markets, I see two options: one is investing...
Please Watch My July 13 Q&A on YouTube Here
What a great Q&A. You had so many questions; we discussed Fed policy/inflation/recession (of course), but also GME, UUP, PXD…the list goes on. Here’s the full YouTube conversation if you missed it. Follow this link: And subscribe to my YouTube channel...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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