Fed presidents sing higher interest rates song ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday
This week Fed presidents have set the table for Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s Friday morning speech at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference. But it’s not clear that the financial markets are eating off the same menu. (I bought a box...
It’s not all bad news for tech stocks: Palo Alto Networks beats, announces 3/1 split, and gains 12%
After the close on Monday, August 22, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported fiscal fourth-quarter (adjusted) earnings of $2.39 a share. Analysts had projected $2.28 a share. Revenue climbed 27% to $1.6 billion. On a GAP basis (generally accepted accounting principles),...
Please watch my newest YouTube video: Quick Pick Wolfspeed
My one-hundred-and-sixty-seventh YouTube video “Quick Pick Wolfspeed” went up today. My latest Quick Pick is Wolfspeed (WOLF), a cutting-edge chipmaker developing semiconductors beyond silicon. It’s not profitable yet and that gives me pause in the...
It doesn’t look good in America’s corn fields
Acres that U.S. farmers were unable to plant have more than tripled from the same period last year as extreme weather wreaks havoc on fields, according to the August report from the Farm Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prevented planting acres–or...
Watch my new YouTube video: It’s All About Water
My one-hundred-and-sixty-sixth YouTube video “It’s All About Water” went up today. We’re back after a hiatus! In this video, I look at how global water scarcity could impact the chip industry, using Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) as...
I think there’s a longer term trend (more than a day and maybe even beyond next week) in today’s big selling
The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.29% at the close today, August 19. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.01%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.17%. The drop in the S&P was the biggest daily decline since June and it took that index to its first weekly loss...
Circle Apple’s September 7 product(s) launch for next big positive for embattled tech sector
If you’re looking for a catalyst to move slumping technology shares higher, circle September 7. That’s the date for Apple’s (AAPL) launch event to unveil the new iPhone 14 line. It’s just one–but the biggest–of Apple’s product...
I got these two key China trends wrong: Selling BABA and TCEHY
When I added Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on April 29, 2022, and Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) to my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription site JubakAM.com on January 3, 2022, I thought two things were about to happen in China. First, I thought that...
Chip makers say tough days ahead–I’m selling TSM and NXPI out of Jubak Picks
The chip boom is over–or at least coming to an end. Gartner has cut its outlook for revenue growth in 2022 to just 7.4%. That’s down from a forecast of 14% growth for chip revenue three months ago. Garner sees chip revenue falling 2.5% in 2023. And you...
Walmart beats lowered revenue and earnings forecasts and reaffirms guidance for the second half of 2022
Walmart shares were up 5.11% today, August 16, at the close. I think it’s fair to call that a relief rally as the company beat lowered earnings and sales forecasts for fiscal second-quarter earnings today. And then confirmed its guidance for the second half of...
A strategy for investing during the FOMO rally
Let me be clear where I’m coming from. I think we’re still in a Bear Market and that the rally that has been in place since July is a Bear Market rally. In that context, what I’m falling the FOMO rally, the Fear Of Missing Out rally that has driven...
This Bear Market rally has some legs: Stocks don’t want to fall–even on really bad economic news from China
Overnight China reported really negative growth numbers with industrial production, fixed asset investment, and consumer spending all growing at rates well below projections. Economists on Wall Street (and its equivalent in Tokyo, etc.) issued new forecasts for...
China’s economy in worse shape than we thought
China’s factory output and consumer spending both slowed in July, new numbers released today by the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Industrial production rose 3.8% from a year ago. That’s lower than June’s 3.9% year-over-year rate and below...
FOMO looks likely to extend Bear Market rally
Welcome back FOMO. That’s Fear of Missing Out. We’ve seen this one before. With stocks up, and showing signs of moving higher, investors who sought safety on the sidelines find they can’t take the pain anymore of watching other investors and traders...
Buy/sell/hold: Tesla’s near-term pivot points
The long-term case for buying Tesla (TSLA) is easy to make (or easy to argue.) The company has created electric vehicle technology that delivers faster speeds, longer range, and greater efficiency than any of its emerging competitors. The company has done a...
Fed members push back on market’s inflation has peaked rally
It didn’t take long. The pixels were barely dry on yesterday’s CPI inflation report–headline inflation fell to a year-over-year rate of 8.5% in July from 9.1% in June–before members of the Federal Reserve warned that the stock market rally on...
3 sells for today’s CPI bounce–my goal is still to sell into this Bear Market rally
Despite today’s CPI inflation bounce and the continuation (flagging but still in business) of July’s Bear Market rally, my goal is still to sell into rallies. I don’t think this Bear Market is over and done with. I see another down leg when investors...
I think the markets are getting carried away with today’s CPI numbers–looking to make a sell or two today
As of 2 p.m. New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is up 2.01% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is ahead 1.53%. The NASDAQ Composite is higher by 2.71% and the NASDAQ 100 has gained 2.64%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index is higher by 2.77%. And all...
CPI headline inflation falls more than expected; core inflation remains steady
The annual rate of inflation as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped in July to 8.5%. That was down from June’s annual rate of 9.1%. Economists had expected the inflation rate to drop to 8.7% However, the news wasn’t as positive on...
Unsold homes start to stack up
The U.S. supply of new homes relative to sales in June was the highest since the middle of the last crash in 2010. In early July, buyer traffic to homebuilder websites and sales offices had plunged to the lowest level for the month since 2012, according to a survey of...
Another chip maker–this time is Micron–warns and chip stock take a hit
First, it was Nvidia (NVDA) cutting its guidance for revenue and earnings due on August 24. Today, August 9, it was Micron Technology (MU) warning that its revenue for the fourth-quarter revenue may come in at or below the bottom end of a forecast range provided in...
Tesla finally announces date of 3/1 stock split
Oooh! What a tease. Back in the spring Tesla (TSLA) sorta announced a likely stock split on Twitter. Without a date. Then two weeks ago, company shareholders approved the anticipated 3/1 split. Without a date. Finally, on Friday, August 5, in documents filed with the...
The big event of the week is Wednesday’s CPI inflation report–expect some nerves before the news and waves after it
All eyes will be on the July CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report due on Wednesday, August 10, before the market open. The market hope is that we’ll see the first signs that inflation has peaked after the headline CPI inflation surged at a 9.1% annual...
Watch my new YouTube video: The Fed Talks but the Market’s Not Listening
My one-hundred-and-sixty-fifth YouTube video “Trend of the Week The Fed Talks but the Market’s Not Listening” went up today. The market has strongly rallied in the last month, in good part on the optimistic belief in a “soft landing” from...
The wrinkles in the July jobs surprise that argue maybe the economy isn’t “super
Today’s surprise in the July jobs number–the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs rather than the 270,000 or so economists expected is indeed a big deal. It certainly argues that any “official” recession call from economists is still a way off. And...
Surprise! Economy added 528,000 jobs in July–what’s it all mean (especially for the Fed)?
The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July. The increase crushed all estimates. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for about half that gain. The Labor Department also revised June job gains upward to 398,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, matching...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Jobs: the Recession Barrier Erodes
My one-hundred-and-sixty-third YouTube video “Jobs: the Recession Barrier Erodes” went up today. Are we in a recession or not? Many economists argue that because there’s strength in the labor market, we can’t be in a recession. But what...
Just when it looks certain that the economy is headed toward recession, services post a big pickup in July
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey for non-manufacturing (AKA services) from the Institute for Supply Management showed a surprise pickup in July. The services index rebounded to 56.7 in July from 55.3 in June, the ISM reported on Wednesday, August 3. This put...
The consumer is getting stretched: credit card debt rises by $46 billion in the second quarter
Credit card debt rose in the United States from April through June by $46 billion, a 5.5% increase over the first quarter, as Americans borrowed billions of dollars to continue spending, according to a report on Tuesday, August 2, from the Federal Reserve Bank of New...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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