Please watch my YouTube video: Quick Pick Goldman Sachs
Today’s Quick Pick is Goldman Sachs (GS). This is not a cheap stock. Goldman has had a good run in 2024 and is up 55% year to date. But this is the stock to use play the financial deregulation policies of the Trump administration. We’re moving from...Doubt increases on Wall Street about earnings growth ahead
There’s growing doubt on Wall Street about fourth quarter and 2025 earnings growth. The indicator known as earnings-revision momentum—-the ratio of upward versus downward revisions to analysts’ forecast per-share earnings over the next 12 months for the Standard...
Watch my new YouTube video: Fed one and done in December?
Today’s video is Fed One and Done in December? On November 13, the CPI inflation numbers showed inflation ticking up slightly, but the market still believes the Fed will cut rates again in December. On November 13, the CME FedWatch tool had it at 83% odds...
The Fed faces an impossible task in 2025
There’s no reason to believe that President-elect Donald Trump isn’t serious about pushing three of his biggest policy ideas through in the first 100 days of his administration in 2025. Susie Wiles, his pick for White House chief of staff, has said, “Get it done in...
CPI inflation creeps higher in October; market still forecasts December interest rate cut
Inflation ticked up slightly on an annual basis in October, the latest evidence that further reductions in inflation are getting hard to achieve. The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.6% from a year earlier, up from September’s 2.4% annual rate, the Bureau of Labor...
Pick #8 Qualcomm in my “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally” Special Report
Today I added Qualcomm as Pick #8 for my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for an old rally” on my JubakAM.com subscription site. The stock is already a member of my Volatility Portfolio on that subscription site. Here’s what I wrote Pick #8: Qualcomm QCOM). Qualcomm...
Wall Street and the bond market see fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 from the Fed
Look out for more volatility in the bond market. BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and TCW Group have all warned that the bumpy ride is likely far from over. But also expect that the big overall trend for 2024 of rising bond prices and falling yields on hopes for aggressive...
Watch my new YouTube video: Rally to continue through December; but I’m worried about January
Today’s video is Rally to Continue Through December; I’m Worried About January. While I recorded this video on November 5 (before the election results), I still believed we were looking at a rally through the end of the year. Looking at the patterns of...
Get ready for the Trump tax cuts–in the first 100 days of the new administration
President-elect Donald Trump and Republican Congressional leaders are already promising to push through a new round of tax cuts to replace the 2017 cuts that expire in 2025. New tax cuts, they say, will be the first legislative–as opposed to initiatives by...
Nvidia to replace Intel in Dow Jones industrials Average–another catalyst for shares
AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing chipmaker Intel (INTC), S&P Dow Jones Indices, the owner of the 127-year-old index, said late Friday. Nvidia’s (NVDA) is currently the world’s second-most valuable public company....
Watch my YouTube video: Quick Pick Fortinet
Today’s Quick Pick is Fortinet (FTNT). Fortinet is a cybersecurity company with a concentration in firewalls. They have about 15% of the firewall market. Firewall sales have a four or five year cycle as technology develops and companies need to upgrade their...
Fed sticks with a 25 basis point interest rate cut; but uncertainty seems to be a rising worry
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Thursday by a quarter of a percentage point. The cut was the second this year, following on a larger than usual 50 basis point cut in September. The size of this cut was expected by the financial markets. Wall Street is...
It’s a BIG week for BIG TECH earnings reports
Expect Big Tech earnings reports and more earnings reports this week.. All capped on Friday with the October jobs report, the last one before the November 7 meeting of the Federal Reserve on interest rates. (Which means that the Fed will be in its blackout period...
A new pick–TSM–for my Special Report “10 Trump and 10 Harris winners” on my subscription site
Last night I added a third potential Harris election victory winner to my Special Report “10 trump and 10 Harris winners” on my subscription site, JubakAM.com. Here’s what I wrote about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) in that post. Harris winner #3: Taiwan...
Climb in yield on 2-year Treasury says bond market is rethinking rate-cut trajectory
As of Monday, October 21, Two-year Treasury yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates on September 18 for the first time since 2020. Rising yields “reflect the reduced probability of recession risks,” Steven Zeng, an interest...
Is a guidance cut from Texas Instruments another sign of a top?
Here’s the indicator that I’m watching and my strategy for staying in the market or deciding to step aside. Looking at the aggregate forecast for earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500, I think it’s reasonable to think that third quarter...
Good news: What we now know about this coming earnings season
It’s still very early in third quarter earnings season, but I think we can already see a pattern. First, for the quarter, it looks like a large percentage of companies will report earnings above analyst estimates. Second, CEOs are pushing out their worries about...
Retail sales stronger than expected in September
U.S. retail sales strengthened in September by more than forecast. The U.S. economy continues to show solid growth. And the economic strength continues to say that there’s less need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual 50 basis points...
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing beats on earnings and raises forecast
Shares of global chipmaking powerhouse Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) rose 9.79% today to hit a record high after the chipmaker topped quarterly estimates and raised its target for 2024 revenue growth. The company—-the main chip manufacturer for Nvidia...
Today I added VMC as the third pick to my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for an old rally” on my subscription site
Here’s what I wrote today when I added Vulcan Materials to my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for a old rally” on my subscription JubakAM.com site. Pick #3; Vulcan Materials (VMC). As stock prices have kept climbing, it’s become harder and harder to find good...
CPI core inflation ticks upward; 25 basis point cut in November now consensus
Today, both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the month, with a month to month 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the core.On an annual basis, the headline index...
Wait! No soft landing! No more rate cuts! The market freaks out again!
It’s back! Fear that the economy is so strong that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as sharply or as quickly as expected. In the last few days, following on a surprisingly strong September jobs report, the market has gone from giving 50/50 odds to a second...
Earnings worries on deck
This week brings a transition from a market dominated by speculation about the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to worries about earnings and the growth rate for corporate profits. Don’t worry we’ll still see plenty of economic news with the potential...
Strong September jobs report lowers expectations for 50 basis point cut from the Fed
Odds on a 50 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve at its November 7 meeting plunged to 0% Friday on the CME FedWatch tool after a strong jobs report for September showed a tick down in the unemployment rate. On September 27, the CME FedWatch tool, which calculates...
Micron surge shows why it’s so hard to leave this market
This is why it’s so hard to sell this market in spite of stunningly high valuations. “This” is the 14.7% gain on September 26 in shares of Micron Technology after the company announced results for the fiscal fourth quarter and forecasts for fiscal first quarter...
China fires the big bazooka again–a sign of a panic?
There was a whiff of panic to the big moves by the People’s Bank today. China’s central bank cut a key short-term interest rate and announced plans to reduce the reserve ratio, the amount of money banks must hold in reserve, to the lowest level since at least 2018....
Think about gold and gold miners as two different asset classes right now
I think you want to own gold–through something like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)–right now to profit from decreasing interest rates at most of the world’s central banks, from global macro uncertainty, from the possibility of domestic violence in the...
So what happened to the big market crash?
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again...
The Fed cuts by 50 basis points–don’t make too much of the dip in stocks today
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points Wednesday. The vote for a 50 basis point cut was 11-1 with the only negative vote–for a 25 basis point cut rather than 50–the first dissent in the Jerome Powell era. The Fed’s Dot...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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