Remember back at the beginning of 2018 when bond investors and traders couldn’t agree on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates two times, or three times or four times in the year? (It wound up being four.)

Well, we’re looking at a replay of that argument for 2019. Right now the market–specifically the yield on the two-year Treasury note–has priced in two interest rate increases beyond a December 19, 2018 move. The Federal Reserve is signaling three rate increases. The iconoclasts on Wall Street, a group which includes Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase at the moment, are projecting four interest rate increases in 2019.

The differences are significant. The Federal Reserve is projecting  a peak interest rate for this cycle of 3.4%. The bond market is at 2.8%. That’s enough to upset calculations by portfolio managers.

At a time when the U.S. stock market is showing extraordinarily low volatility, the need to resolve this “disagreement” points to an increase in volatility in the bond marketplace. Yesterday, Wednesday, September 19, the three-month London interbank offered rate jumped by the most since May. The two-year Treasury yield touched 2.81%, the highest since July 2008. The 10-year rate rose to just over 3.09%. Today, September 20, the two-year note closed at a yield of 2.8%. The 10-year Treasury closed with a yield of 3.06%

Part of the reason for the difference in opinion between the Fed and the bond market is that the bond market currently sees the economy slowing significantly, which would remove the fears of inflation that might drive the Fed to raise rates more aggressively. The gap between two-year and ten-year yields shrank to as little as 18 basis points in August (but has widened recently to around 26 basis points.) A flat yield curve, and we’re close to that, is seen as an indicator of a likely recession.

A recession wouldn’t be good for stocks but it would, certainly, lessen pressure on the Fed to aggressively raise interest rates.