Be careful what you compare things to.
If you compare U.S. auto sales in September 2010 to the horrendous sales of September 2009, the industry looks like it’s roaring ahead.
If you compare sales for September 2010 to those from a recovering August, the industry is barely inching ahead.
For example, Ford Motor (F) showed a 46% year-to-year jump in sales.
Super, right?
But Ford showed just a 2% increase in sales from August 2010.
The story was the same for Chrysler Group—up 61% from September 2009 but just 1% ahead of August 2010.
And the effect wasn’t limited to U.S automakers either. Toyota Motor (TM) showed a 17% increase in sales from September 2009 to September 2010. But the company actually showed a 1% decline in sales from August to September.
Toyota lagged other Asian competitors in the North American market. Honda Motor (HMC), for example, recorded 26% year-to-year sales. For Hyundai Motor sales climbed 48% year to year.
General Motors was the laggard among U.S. automakers. The company saw sales grow by 11% year to year. Sales dropped by 7% from August to September.
Hi Taz,
yes, I like TD. I originally had a very small discount broker that got bought by Waterhouse which got bought, etc. I don’t trade much and don’t ever trade options. Just haven’t figured it out.
I have always liked TD’s customer service. When the Reserve fund went belly, TD stepped up and waived margin interest so it was as if I had the cash that was frozen. That impressed me. The per trade cost is slightly less than fidelity’s (a buck) but my primary like is its service. But I’ve never had a different discount broker so don’t have anything to compare it to.
southof8,
sounds like you like TD…..do they give you a good deal on options? I’m not that happy with the rates at schwab.
greedibanks,
I’m with you. Never understood why anyone cared what Ed said since it was usually either dead wrong or inconsistent with previous posts. Just another internet poser hoping for unsophisticated folks to be impressed by what sounds like analysis but is really just nonsense. Stick with Jim…he isn’t always right but at least he has good analysis based in sound economics and finance. I also think several of the “posters” who constantly asked him questions on here were just Ed himself trying to make it look like people gave a darn what he thought!
I still regularly read Jim’s articles. I try not to post unless I have something compelling to say.
For the most part, Q3 has played out much as I predicted, so there’s not much more to add in addition to what I posted before. I don’t want to simply repeat myself — there’s nothing to be gained by that.
My prediction of better than expected earnings reports last quarter was substantiated in the results. We’re also seeing the M&A activity and the increased capital equipment spending which I repeatedly predicted earlier in the year. I also warned in late May / early June not to expect a double-dip and not to get greedy waiting for the market to fall further — if a company you like was well below your “buy target”, to buy. I think that advise was sound, as the market seems to have put in a 2010 bottom.
My recommendation to hold DD (if you bought at a good price, like I did) was solid, as the stock cruised past my $42 price target to $44. I’m raising my target to $46 and will continue to hold. My alternative dividend pick to Jim’s TOT, for those who wished to avoid oil stocks after Deepwater Horizon, was FTE. This also proved advantageous, as FTE is up over 12% (to TOT’s 10%). I erred by buying BAC too early – I’m down over 10% in this stock. Should have bought STD when it hit $9. (Hindsight…)
I’ll make another post in Jim’s latest column where I go out on a limb to make further predictions — but I’ll say right here that, for the most part, the predictions will be a continuation of the trend which is already underway. I’ll be curious to hear other ideas which explore the trend further or illustrate countertrends to consider.
Yes, the number of posters seems to have dwindled. They’re definitely not all over at Ed’s, though there are some regulars there.
I haven’t yet figured out a way to get into JUBAX so can’t say if they’re all over on his new site. I guess I’ll just have to send in a check. Does that mean I’ll be getting yet another monthly statement? I really was hoping it would catch on with TD Ameritrade or Fidelity.
Only the guys who believe Jim will make them more money than Ed are sticking around here. I’m one of them.
elcoate80- try this one instead
http://edstalkingstock.wordpress.com/2010/10/04/eds-daily-review-for-october-4th-coyote-ugly/#respond
elcoate80
They’re over on Ed’s blog. Here’s a link:
http://sz0099.ev.mail.comcast.net/zimbra/mail#5
Just one more example of why short term weekly/monthly economic data should be mostly ignored by investors. If Ford is in the early stages of a recovery it does not really matter whether sales in any given month were up 2% or down 20% from a level influenced by weather, a clunkers program, a competitors promotion or anything else.
I am holding Ford for the medium to long term looking for $16-$20. After that I worry about KIA, Hyundai, Tata, and whatever Chinese company ends up selling here. The UAW still makes US companies uncompetitive in the long run but for the next 12-24 months Ford is still a pretty good bet in my view.
Hi,
Just wondering where all the regular posters have gone (Ed, South of 8, STL etc?) Would I be correct in assuming they have moved to Jims Mutual Fund site? The number of posters has dropped radically since Jim announced the fund.
Cheers
For an auto pick, go with BYDDF. As a long-term investment you will be able to retire on it.