High dividend yields are showing up in some unexpected places. Like Asia.
If you think anything like I did just a scant few months ago, you wouldn’t dream of looking to Asian stocks for high dividend yields. Most likely, you think of them like I did, as resembling the technology sector: Lots of growth but no yield.
Well, I was wrong and if you think like that you’re missing an increasingly important source of high dividend yields. (By the way, technology stocks pay dividends too these days. Check out Intel (INTC) to see what I mean.)
Here’s the data from the Matthews Asia Dividend fund (MAPIX) that opened my eyes. “Based on consensus estimates, the projected dividend yield for 2010 of the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index of 2.5% exceeds the 2.0% expected of the MSCI U.S. Index,” the fund’s managers wrote in their December 31, 2009 report. In other words Asian stocks out-yield their U.S. counterparts.
And the Asian yield story looks like it’s got a way to run. In China, for example, total dividend payments grew to $73 billion in 2008 from just $8 billion in 1998, according to the December 31 report from another Matthews fund, the Matthews China Dividend Fund (MCDFX). And $57 billion of the $73 billion in dividends paid out in 2008 came from companies that went public after 1998. Even recently public companies in China, it seems from the data, are paying good dividends.
Why haven’t dividend investors stocked up on these higher Asia yields? (In the process driving yields down, of course.)
Couple of reasons, I think.
First, investors are fixated on China and other Asian economies as growth stories. We’re focused on buying growth of 20%, 30%, 40% or more a year. Who’s even looking at dividends?
Second, it’s just awfully hard to figure out many of these dividend stories. Information on the companies is hard to get; the corporate structures are often so convoluted that it’s difficult to tell what the information you can get means; and Asian companies often pay out dividends on schedules and in formats that seem very well, foreign, to developed market investors who are used to regular and regularly announced quarterly dividend payments.
There’s good reason that the Matthews Asia Funds have launched Asia (2006) and China (2009) dividend funds recently. A professional manager with the ability to buy and sell on local markets effectively closed to individual investors more than earns his keep in this part of the global stock market.
But that doesn’t mean you can’t add some Asian dividend stocks to your income portfolio—either instead of buying a mutual fund or in addition to owning fund shares as a way to overweight a particular Asian country or sector in your dividend portfolio.
As I wrote in my Friday April 9 post, https://jubakpicks.com/2010/04/09/taking-the-hybt-for-bigger-dividends-beyond-the-usual-suspects/ , it’s getting harder and harder to find a stock that pays a decent dividend. At least if you look in the usual places. So look in the un-usual places. Every one of them.
In today’s post I’m going to tell you about three Asian dividend stocks. Two of them are intriguing but ultimately frustrating examples of why it’s so hard to figure out what to buy in this sector. The third, I think, is just transparent enough to add to Jim’s Watch List. I think the global equity markets are swinging back from hope to fear and that we’ll get a chance to add this stock to one of my portfolios at a lower price not too many weeks down the road.
My first Asian dividend stock is Singapore’s Keppel Corporation Limited (KPELY.PK). The company’s biggest business is building offshore oil rigs. So far in 2010 the company has announced $1.65 billion in orders that include a wellhead platform for Brazilian oil company Petrobras (PBR) and a jackup rig for Saudi Aramco.
Keppel’s infrastructure and property segments will account for about 26% and 14% of revenue, respectively, in 2010, according to OCBC Investment Research. Keppel’s infrastructure business includes a fast-growing cooling systems business with contracts in China, the Middle East and the United Kingdom. A wholly-owned subsidiary Keppel Integrated Engineering is targeting what it calls the green infrastructure business with assets that include two waste to energy incinerator plants and a water processing plant.
And then there’s the property business. The company is building a development called Reflections at Keppel Bay and another called Resorts World at Sentosa. And then there’s the Marina Bay Financial Center project that’s just nearing completion of Phase 1.
All this is complex enough but things really get too complicated for me when it comes to dividend time. In 2008, according to the Matthews Asia Funds, Keppel was among the most generous payers of dividends in Singapore paying out paying out $385 million in dividends. The company hadn’t yet set a dividend payout for 2009 when it announced this wrinkle: The company’s Keppel Integrated Engineer subsidiary is contributing much of its environment assets to a trust called K-Green Trust that will list in Singapore. The company will pay a “dividend in specie” of approximately 50.5% of the total number of trust units held directly by Keppel. This dividend will be distributed to shareholders.
Any idea what that dividend is worth? I’d love to be able to figure it out but from here I can’t tell. And it’s hard for me to recommend a dividend stock when I can’t tell what the dividend is. (I’ll keep working on it, though.)
On to example two, Minth Group (MNTHF.PK.) The company manufactures and supplies trim and decorative parts to domestic and international auto companies building cars in China. China is now the largest auto market in the world and demand will grow by 15% a year over the next three years, according to Citic Securities. In this growing market Minth shows net profit margins of 20%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.3% and should be able to up that without showing any strain.
Oh, and did I mention that while the average auto stock traded in Hong Kong trades at a PE to Growth rate (PEG) ratio of 1.6, Minth Group trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.9? (Growth investors commonly call any growth stock with a PEG ratio of 1 or less reasonably priced.)
So why not snap up the shares—if not for the Dividend Income Portfolio then for Jubak’s Picks?
Well, in Hong Kong Minth is a very liquid stock trading 105 million shares on average daily. In the United States it’s an OTC stock priced at just $1.70 a share. And volume—it doesn’t even show up on MSN Money or Yahoo Finance. Not exactly the kind of liquidity that makes me feel like I’d be able to sell if I needed to. And I’d sure be sorry about the volatility of the shares if someone else decided to sell.
And example three? Jiangsu Expressway Company (JEXYY.PK) isn’t exactly liquid but at least it does trade in the United States as a sponsored ADR (meaning a bank is committed, however strongly or weakly, to making a market in the shares). Daily average volume is just 1,467. But at least the stock’s volume does register. And at $18.87 a share it’s not exactly a penny stock.
The company is certainly easier to understand than Keppel and the business model is a familiar one to developed market investors.
The company builds, buys and operates toll bridges and toll roads in China including a section of the Shanghai- Nanjing Expressway and other toll highways within Jiangsu Province. (It also develops highway-related services such as repair shops, gas stations, motels and restaurants.
Earnings grew by 29% in 2009 and will grow by 12% annually through 2011, according to projections by DBS Group. Revenue climbed by 9% in 2009, according to Daiwa Capital Markets. The stock pays a dividend of 6%.
So why put it on my watch list instead of buying it now?
First, the stock is generating what is a rash of short-term enthusiasm because of May’s big Shanghai trade expo. The feeling is that the event will generate lots of traffic that will turn into toll revenue for Jiangsu Expressway. I hate to buy into this kind of short-term thinking—and the elevated price that goes with it. There’s almost always a reaction that sends the stock price down after the event is over.
Second, the company has started to move into the property market. I think that exposes the stock to a price shock if the Beijing government moves to rein in the money supply to control growth and inflation. I think that’s likely over the next two to three months.
In short I’d like to own this one once some of the short-term risk is out of the stock price. Right now, I’m adding it to my watch list.
Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any company or fund mentioned in this post.
As an asian investor looking in. i would love to invest in ADRs such as telefonica that yields 8%. but i am not sure if i will be doubly taxed (by spain withholding) then (by Us withholding). can anyone adviced on that?
Duvelfan, Marsdon
NOW we are getting somewhere.
Wow- and just when you are certain you know it all…! [No- I guess I admitted I did not know much of this.] I’ll call the transfer agent for TOT today. Thanks much to you both- and I hope this has been of interest and usefulness to other Jim fans.
Not to put too fine a point on it, that 35% div gouge from the State of Brazil is an excellent piece of information, these days, as is the note about MLPs in IRAs. I’ll keep working on the China rake…will post it here when it comes to me.
cheers cjc
cjxland,
no foreign tax credit for tax deferred accounts.
As to the witholding of France is indeed 15%.
As to why you are paying 25% see http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/galakoutis/2009/0129.html.
The only country that I know without is the UK.
Almost all other countries the rate is 15%.
Exception Brazil (35%). Don’t know China. If you find out let me know.
TY again- and I will. Also will view the Pub. 514.
Don’t think I will have to worry about it for awhile tho. But certainly something for us to keep in mind.
Follow up ?? for the CPA- if you receive the divs in a tax-deferred account, can you take the FTC?
I’d ask my own CPA, but she is a bit busy at the mo.
cjxland,
The way the article explains it, it would be the $1000 total distribs. from all MLPs in an IRA: AAII Journal, Mar. 2010. ck. it out.
I guess the last question would be:
Is that $1000 total distribs. from all MLPs in an IRA, or $1000 per MLP?
Yahhh- MY CPA can whip yer CPA!
Must not have had +$1000 in distribs. Always a simple explanation!
I do understand that foreign companies withhold their div taxes at source, have not seen that so far on my US dividends- at source.
France clips my TOT divs for 25%- before I get anything, yes, in my brokerage sweep account. Canada only nips 15%.
But I am wondering about Australia and Britain and China…what their rates are. Guess I can find that on google somewhere.
Thanks for the tip on the Foreign Tax credit tho- I’ll ask my CPA [but I don’t think I’ll switch.]
All my MLPs are owned in my IRAs, so I guess MSN will have to send around their journalists to bust me [“You dity rats- you’ll never get my mlps alive”].
I appreciate the feedback folks.
YX
I read in an article in AAII Journal recently. Said MLP distributions to an IRA acct. over $1000. per yr. are taxable.
cjxland, Duvelfan:
I saw an article on MSN sometime ago saying you can not own MLP in IRA.
cjxland,
Foreign dividends are taxed in their home countries, just as they are in the US of A. Most countries (including France and the USA) take a 15% tax before the dividend arrives in your brokerage sweep account. This 15 % can reduce your federal taxes $ for $, either as a foreign tax deduction ( sch A line 8) or as a foreign tax credit ( a little more complicated).
See IRS pub. 514 for more details.
Regarding the magical disappearance of MLP distributions in an IRA, please do yourself a favor and add all the MLP distributions you receive in your IRA to be absolutely certain that they are less then $1000.00. If your CPA “forgot” to point that out consider switching to a tax preparer that actually knows taxes.
Jim,
The complications of foreign investing perhaps make ETF’s a better bet. DGS is a small cap emerging market dividend payer. No one company is more then a few percentage of total.
Frank
Jim- one other problem with foreign dividend investing is knowing what you will REALLY be getting for a dividend, after whichever country takes out their share [usually in w/holdings that cannot be recovered under any circumstnaces].
I know for a fact that Canada reserves 15% unto itself, and France rakes off 25%. If this is factored in before buying, it is no big deal- but it may come as quite a shock when one takes a look at that first dividend check.
It would always be interesting, and helpful, to know what the real dividend and yield is- after tax w/holding- for all your off-shore div reccommendations.
Thanks- and thanks for all your fine work.
btw all- those form K-1 tax problems disappear if a partnership asset is held in an IRA…at least according to my CPA.
trader,
I wasn’t judging OZM’s ability to appreciate capital. I was merely pointing out the dividend is most likely not 13.25.
Jim
Thanks for the info on dividend stocks “outside the box” internationally. As a dividend income investor, I’m always looking for new areas. This is why I invested in MAPIX recently. With a basic lack of clearity, higher volitivity, investing in Asian stocks vs. investing in a MF in Asia with a 3.8% DY along with Morningstars 5 stars with low risk and high return, this seems the way to benefit in that area of the world
Ed, DY is only one part of the equation. I also look for capital appreciation. Looks like it has more room to go. Obviously, every one should do their own research and form their own opinion.
trader,
That DY for OZM is only good IF they continue to pay out 58 cents/share on a quarterly basis, which I doubt. If you look at their dividend history, they normally pay out a larger dividend at the end of the year, and then pay single digit dividends quarterly. Their “true” DY is a little over 4%.
Might want to check out OZM. Current dividend is 13.25
Jim,
Just speaking for myself, I’d rather pay a premium on a CEF with a 10% DY, than look for a 6% DY in China. If I’m in a Chinese stock, I’m looking for significant price growth.