I expect technology sector weakness to continue this week with earnings worries still unanswered.
What could put an end to selling in tech stocks? The NASDAQ 100 is down almost 4% in the last week.
Certainly earnings news that showed earnings growth at the companies in this sector robust enough to justify paying a premium for these shares would be a big help
Unfortunately, the coming week isn’t going to bring enough earnings good news among tech shares to make this case. Among big tech stocks only Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) are scheduled to report.
Tesla’s earnings report on July 23 isn’t forecast to be reassuring. Earnings are projected to have dropped in the quarter to 46 cents from 78 cents a share in the second quarter of 2023. (The best thing I can say abut Tesla earnings for the quarter is that I’m not sure anyone who holds the stock will care. The bad news is widely expected and I suspect that investors who own the stock own it for the long-range revenue growth potential rather than for quarterly earnings.)
On July 23 Alphabet is expected to reported very solid earnings growth to $1.85 a share from $1.44 a year ago.
But I doubt that Alphabet alone is enough to turn market sentiment. The rest of big tech doesn’t report until the week after next with Microsoft (MSFT) on July 30 and Meta Platforms (META) on July 31. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) report on August 1.
Those reports could renew optimism that technology earnings growth is worth a premium share price. But, at the moment, I think these earnings could well amplify current worries.
Projections don’t show big growth at most of these sector leaders.
Microsoft, for example, is projected to show earning growth to $2.90 a share from $2.69 in the the comparable quarter in 2023. That’s not a lot of growth for a stock that trades at 38 times trailing 12-month earnings.
The story at Apple is similarly worrying in the short term. Projections on Wall Street call for earnings of $1.33 share versus $1.26 a year ago. Apple shares closed Friday trading at 35 times trailing 12-month earnings.
The picture at Amazon is much more positive with earnings projected to go to $1.02 a share from 63 cents n 2023. Earnings at Meta Platforms are projected to be strong enough to sustain momentum in the shares with Wall Street looking for earnings of $4.68 a share verged versus $3.23 a share in the comparable quarter of 2023.
A couple of points to keep in mind. The second quarter is always among the weakest quarters for tech companies. Strong guidance for the third quarter could bring investors back to the sector. And, if you’re looking to buy the dip in tech stocks, a drop on second quarter earnings results ahead of better news for the third quarter could be just the opportunity you’ve been waiting for.
Thank you