The U.S. government releases its jobs figures tomorrow and Friday, January 7 and 8.
Lucky economists aren’t groundhogs or they’d be scaring themselves back into their burrows for well more than six more weeks of unemployment winter.
I’d call the mood on jobs and unemployment grim.
The consensus among economists calls for initial claims for unemployment for the week that ended on January 2, the number to be released on January 7, to rise slightly to 440,000 from 432,000. That would be enough, according to my rough calculations, to keep the four-week moving average headed lower. (The four-week moving average is a better indicator of the trend than volatile weekly numbers.)
But economists will be scouring the data to see if the drop is due to fewer workers filing claims during a cold and snowy holiday season—as was the case in the previous week—or to actual job creation.
Friday brings December’s read on unemployment. Here economists have managed to stamp out any temporary New Year’s optimism and are calling for unemployment to stay at 10% for the month, identical to November’s rate.
That forecast doesn’t really capture the profession’s real gloom, however. In the last few days more economists have begun predicting that unemployment will stay stubbornly above 10% for the first half of 2010.
That’s in spite of projections from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and other Wall Street powers that the economy grew by 4% in the fourth quarter of 2009. (They’re predicting that growth will slow from that rate in 2010.) The economy grew by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2009.
If the consensus and the Wall Street projections are both right we’re looking at another one of those jobless recoveries that have been common recently. Both the relatively shallow 1990-91 and 2001 recessions were followed by jobless recoveries with below trend economic growth.
Remember how much fun those were?
The government needs to try to create an environment where enterprise can thrive. The problem comes when enterprise method thriving involves sending jobs overseas. The trickle down has become the trickle over seas, and only a small amount of people benifit in this county. This is part of the reason that the middle class shrunk.
I agree with the majority of those posting in that the government provides freedom and a healthy economic environment and the people will create opportunities. Sorry kowloon Dave, you, like many people, will be disappointed in your Obama that he didn’t give everyone a job (hope with no action hurts doesn’t it) and sorry Viwi that noone can tell you where the jobs will come from. Innovation and hard work drive a healthy economy. Hope we have enough left in our overweight lazy country.
Viwi, maybe Walmart is hiring? 😉
I think I am more pessimistic than the others on this forum, but let me express my thoughts on the subject of jobs and recovery.
So far, all the previous recoveries were based on some big ideas, which could be computers, internet, etc. I do not see anything like that coming. Alternative energies (which includes solar/wind/geothermal energy, batteries, distribution lines) could be the one, but somehow gravity forces pull it down. I guess, it is not the right time yet.
Is there anything else offered? Nothing, really. Manufacturing is slowly moving to China, IT business to India, and so are doing all the jobs associated with those.
So, those of you who argue that jobs will come, please (!!!) tell me where those jobs will be coming from? $7/hour jobs agricultural jobs to replace Mexicans? Where else?
“The general welfare” is the culmination of everything that came before it in the Preamble — the whole point of having tranquility, justice, and defense was to promote the general welfare — to allow every state and every citizen of those states to benefit from what “we the people” can provide. When we uphold peace, fairness, and justice, then we have general welfare. Don’t wait on the government to provide it, get out there and do it yourself.
Let’s think about this for a minute… let’s all go get jobs with the government. Ok, who pays for those jobs? We do (the American people, it’s called taxes). Wait, I have a better idea. Let’s all just sit around on our butts because we don’t need to pay the government to turn around and pay me for the job I’m doing for them. How is that profitable? Is there any governmental entity that is making a profit? USPS, welfare, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, social security? The more people that work for the government, the more that will need to be collected (taxes) from everyone. Doesn’t sound like a solution to me. I think you need to grab a dictionary and look up the meaning of the word welfare. And don’t just yank one word out of the Constitution without reading the rest of it.
I also believe the government should provide structure and rules which support the welfare of the country. Unfortunately the tax, trade and other laws generated by the government have a direct relationship to the jobs generated or not. Unless similar rules and laws are generated and used by our trading partners we will continue to loose jobs.
Right at the start of the U.S. Constitution, it says that government is responsible to “promote the general welfare.” In my view, a government that fails to provide or promote adequate jobs for its citizens fails its basic duty to promote the general welfare. I think my understanding of the Constitution is as good as yours. Where we apparently differ is about government’s duty to promote the general welfare.
kowloon dave: “the main responsibility of a nation’s government is to provide sufficient jobs for the nation’s citizens…”
I hope you’re not serious. If so, it is an indication of the flagrantly socialist and self-entitled mentality that has overtaken American culture.
The gov’t should provide structure, laws, freedoms. But jobs for the nations citizens?? What a disastrous misunderstanding of the Constitution.
In my view, the main responsibility of a nation’s government is to provide sufficient jobs for the nation’s citizens. Any government that fails thiat responsibility is of questionable validity and worth. I hope I will live to see the destruction of the worthless politicians who have failed the American citizenry by allowing jobs to be systematically taken out of this country.
ka:
Unemployment is actually more dire than Jim indicates. True unemployment and underemployment is closer to 16%.
1. I don’t think Jim mentioned inflation being caused in his recent previous posts. Because that is not the threat in the US. Deflation is the threat.
2. I don’t know of anyone who is (correctly) worrying that the Fed will increase interest rates. Rates will remain near zero throughout all of 2010.
mk
I think the inflation comes from the government printing more money. When the t-bonds interest starts to rise so will all other interest rates.
If the unemployment situation is as dire as Jim indicates:
1. what is the cause of the inflation that Jim mentioned in his previous posts? People’s unemployment checks?
2. why do people worry that the Fed will increase interest rates or the government will stop stimulating the economy?
unemployment is an lagging indicator
unemployment is an lagging indicator
unemployment is an lagging indicator
We know that Europe over the last 10 plus years for the most part has had a jobless rate in excess of 10%. My thinking is that we are following their path.