The odds of another government shutdown “crisis” in 45 days will rise or fall with Representative Matt Gaetz’s (R-Florida) efforts to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Gaetz and a small harder core of the hard core Republican right in the House has threatened to “move to vacate” the Speaker if McCarthy called on Democratic votes in order to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open past the midnight Saturday deadline. That’s exactly what McCarthy chose to do yesterday, surprising almost every observer (including me), to pass the measure to keep the government funded by 335 to 91 with 90 of those No votes coming from the “burn-it-down” wing of the Republican party.

Now the question is whether Gaetz will follow through on his threat to file a motion to vacate on Monday. That motion would force a vote on whether to remove McCathy from the Speaker’s chair.

Kicking the shutdown 45 days down the road doesn’t change a single vote in Congress. The question remains exactly what it was before Saturday’s vote–Will McCarthy–or whoever is Speaker–use Democratic votes to pass legislation to fund the operations of the Federal government?

Anything that increases the chances the Congress will return to its pre-vote chaos–or worse–will be a negative for financial markets. Anything that points to a full fiscal year budget based on a willingness to use Democratic votes in the House to pass a full fiscal year budget will be a positive for financial markets.

What Gaetz does on Monday will be the first indicator of the post-vote dynamics. Gaetz could chicken out and decide not to introduce a motion to vacate. My read of Gaetz, who looks to be running for governor of Florida, is that he’s likely to file the motion. It’s the move–win or lose–that wins him the most attention.

I don’t see any Republican emerging in a new election for Speaker–remember the last one took an exhausting 14 rounds of voting–able to win a majority in the House with just Republican votes. I don’t know what concessions any candidate could make to the 90 House Republicans who voted no on the continuing resolution that wouldn’t alienate enough more moderate Republican House members to prevent that candidate from winning a Republican only majority.

Which means it will be up to Democrats to decide, first, on how to vote on the motion to vacate, and then, second, if there is a new vote for Speaker, how to play the contest.

Democrats will be looking for some concessions before backing any Republican for Speaker with the full knowledge that asking for too much (however that might be defined) would risk losing Republican votes.

So the second indicator to watch, after whatever Gaetz decides to do tomorrow, is the shope of any deal that might emerge between Democrats and McCarthy or some other Republican candidate for Speaker. Any deal would be likely to increase the chances of passing a budget before those 45 days run out. And would therefore be a positive for market sentiment.

One wild card in all this is how what happens in Congress fits together with thinking over at the Federal Reserve. The logic of a potential shutdown said that the Fed would hold off on any November 1 increase in interest rates while the funding battle made economic conditions so uncertain. Does this 45-day extension change that thinking and make an interest rate increase on November 1, just before the 45-day deadline expires, more likely? I don’t think so. What might change the Fed’s thinking though is a clear resolution of the budget uncertainties well before the 45-day extension expires.

So many moving parts.

My general observation is that while keeping the government open for 45 days is a positive for the financial markets, the general uncertainty hasn’t diminished significantly.

Look to see how the VIX volatility index and the CME FedWatch Tool on odds of a Fed interest rate change move on Monday.