Do Norwegian’s grin? Surely that was a trickle of a smile at Yara International’s (YARIY.PK)  annual update for investors on December 10.
The Norwegian fertilizer company reported that the nitrogen fertilizer market was headed for demand-driven price increases in the first half of 2010. Urea supply, a major form of nitrogen fertilizer, should remain tight in 2010 with only three projects likely to come on line. Supply (ex-China) in 2010 will increase by 3%, according to Deutsche Bank, while demand will climb 5%, the bank projects. Chinese exports are likely to remain limited in 2010 as higher production costs limit the competitiveness of Chinese urea. Yara International plants ran at about 63% of capacity in 2009 and these scenarios should result in a pickup to near 80% of capacity.
Time to up my targt price, I believe.
As of January 10, 2010 I’m raising my target price for Yara International to $53 a share by November 2010 from the prior target of $47.20. (For more on my other fertilizer stock Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) see my post https://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/05/update-potash-of-saskatchewan-pot-5/ )
Full disclosure: I own shares of Yara International in my personal portfolio.
I agree with AndyM – I have been investing in Jim’s suggestions and they have done great in rising markets, not so great in falling markets (think Jim would agree). having worked in China and most of the third and developing world, every country has an incrasingly properous “middle class” (not developed world standards) that is using some of their surplus “new” money to upgrade their diet – in most cases that means meat and that means additional grain to feed the meat and that requires fertlizers to produce the grain from the existing farmland. Jim has a good suggestion that continues to incrase in value.
When I decided to try using Jim’s portfolio, I eased into it gradually over a period of 12-18 months. I took a look at each of the stocks that had been recently selected or updated (like within the last few weeks), read his reasoning, and compared the current share price to the target price. Any stock where I thought the anticipated gain was still worth the risk, I bought. The stocks that had not been updated in a while, I steered clear of.
From then on, I added stocks as he picked them, with some exceptions (for example, I usually stay away from the very volatile stocks).
Anyway, that’s how I went about buying into this portfolio. So far, it’s worked out reasonably well, but I’m really interested in seeing how it does during whatever correction may/may not be coming up in the near future.
Good advice, Ed. Tater, another approach is to buy into a guru’s service, for example, investorsplace.com has a number of people who do the research for you, and give their “picks” and why (for a premium). My rule: 1. It has to make sense to you. 2. They have to have a track record that dates back to the last downturns in the market. (it’s easy to shoot fish in a barrel when all is well). 3. Understand, they, too will pick a dog or two. 4. If you can’t stand to lose (or can’t afford to lose) CDs might suit you better (or maybe mutual funds or ETFs) Invest in stocks…they will go down…and up!
Take the time to make informed decisions…it’s your $$.
Tater, there are plenty of good stock screeners online, if you know the qualities of the stocks you want. Or you can take some of Jim’s picks which have a way to go before hitting their target price, and just research those (you can access all domestically traded stock financial statements at Edgar Online, at the SEC website).
I would say, whatever stock you plan to buy, research it first! If you don’t know what to look for, take a simple accounting class. Buy one of Jim’s books. Buy another guru’s book. Just don’t buy blind!
Time frame for stocks “long.” Time frame for in- depth research “short.”
Time to read blogs today, A Lot!
Bob, I apologize if I offended you.
Ed,
No, we “got the humor”…it just wasn’t widely appreciated. Too, the fertilizer business has less to do with cow manure and more with high tech applications, not to mention seeds.
taterbug820, target stock prices are important as to when to sell. Just as important, though, is the entry or “buy” price. Jim’s book devotes time to this subject. I highly reccomend it and others he lists (on this site I think) as good reading to help with the knowledge curve.
Tater, I don’t blame you. There’s nothing worse than being “late to the party”, and then finding the punch bowl mostly empty.
When you say your time is limited, do you mean you are trying to invest for retirement (or some other major life event) on a short time frame, or are you concerned that the rally has run out of steam? Both are legitimate concerns.
Ed, I did pick up and appreciate the sarcasim from your first post. Thank’s for the feedback.
My problem is I feel like I am late getting into the market and see Jim has recommended some stocks, for the longer term, that are down. I don’t want to jump into a rally on stocks that are up 40,50,200%. My time is limited, and probably my knowledge too, of reading Jim’s and few other’s blogs and picks.
Apparently, you folks missed the humor in my initial comment. Look at the topic of Jim’s post: a fertilizer company.
I wasn’t trying to insult Jim. If anything, by saying he “knows $hit”, within the context of a discussion about a fertilizer company, THAT is a compliment.
As for my comment about “investing without research”, that was directed at Tater’s comment about not having the “time or patience” to do his own research. It wasn’t directed at Jim. I know Jim does his research.
taterbug820
I have bought at times only the picks that are in red but has a good target. A few worked and few did not. I do blame my inability stomach the market’s whims.
Ed,
“Investing without research is like playing poker without knowing the rules.” I could care less about Jim’s (actual) investment prowess or an opinionated lack thereof; however, on a public forum such as this please find an appropriate, socially acceptable way to express opinions. Otherwise, we’re likely to conclude you have stumbled onto this site by accident, that is to say, people and those like you who have no social graces, education and self control over their impulses probably should confine theselves to the poker table.
I doubt everyone who reads Jim’s articles, his book and looks for wisdom in his insight and experience shouldn’t buy everything he does. I don’t agree with some of his conclusions; however, I like his track record! Care to share yours?
Tater, I can’t say I’m overly fond of those stocks. But that and a buck will get you a cup of coffee.
If I were going to invest strictly based on Jim’s advice, I’d still take the time to research the stock. As much as I respect Jim, it’s still my money. You should take the same approach. Do your homework.
Investing without research is like playing poker without knowing the rules.
If I were to buy all of Jubak’s Picks that are in the Red (ORA, RBA, GLF, MIDD, TC) could that be a good plan? Ed, I don’t have time or patience to do my own research. Just looking for input?
Ollie, I’d love to be able to show non-verbal communication in text chat like you do. But I’m just not as skilled as you.
Hey EdMcGon:
Thanks for your welcome comment. I especially liked the smiley face that you and the other middle school kids use from time to time on your post.
Urea — I just bought some shares of Urea — and suddenly the name, will never mean the same, to me….
(with apologies to Sondheim/Bernstein)
Jim knows $hit!
Sorry. It had to be said. 🙂