Update: March 22, 2016. When I added Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Real Estate ETF (DXJR) to my Jubak Picks portfolio back in December 2014, my idea was that investment flows from China into cheaper (and safer from government eyes) Tokyo real estate plus development for the 2020 Olympics would push prices in the Tokyo real estate market higher. Well, I got the direction right. Land prices in Japan rose for the first time in eight years in 2015. But I could sure use a bit more magnitude to that upward trend. Nationwide land prices gained all of 0.1% in 2015. That’s better than the 0.3% drop in 2014, but its not exactly the number I was hoping for. I think 2016 has the potential to be a better year than 2015. Prices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have stabilized after a volatile 2015–that should give Chinese investors enough confidence to put money to work in Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, Japan’s three largest metropolitan areas. Land prices in those three cities outpaced the very small national gain by accelerating to growth of 2.9% in 2015 from 1.8% in 2014. The yen looks like it’s got another year ahead of it as a safe haven currency–which makes the yen more expensive but also more attractive as a stable store of value. And, of course, the 2020 Olympics is a year closer than it was in 2015. Back in July 2015 when I last updated this pick, I set a $32 a unit price for this ETF by October 2015. I don’t see any reason to change that target now–either higher or lower–but I am extending the time table for that target to October 2016. That target represents a potential 22% gain from the closing price of $26.15 on March 22. At that closing price I’ve got a 3.15% loss on this position in Jubak Picks. The trailing 12-month yield on this ETF as of the end of February was 1.85%.
Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Get Even More Jim!
- • More profiles of hot (and cold) sectors
- • More strategies for profiting from volatility
- • More about macro trends driving the market
- • More on where the market is heading – short-, medium- and long-term – including a Saturday Night Quarterback look at the week ahead!
Subscribe now for a year for just $199