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Getcha predictions here: My scorecard for the fourth quarter

It’s a new quarter. Do we know any more about the trend in the stock market and the economy than we did at the start of last quarter Well, actually a little bit. I don’t think we’re at “Bet the farm” certainty, but figuring out the trend isn’t quite as confounding as...

The pause that tells us where this rally is headed

Now we test this rally. The upward move in the market stalled yesterday, July 28, at technical resistance for the NASDAQ Composite index, which had led the advance. Nothing unexpected there. The NASDAQ Composite is up 10% in just 18 days. That’s enough to convince...

Two weeks of summer rally or three days of bounce?

Maybe we’ll get a summer rally after all—but it doesn’t look like a very strong or long one. Still the hope for any rally at all is an improvement over the pessimism that has taken increasingly strong hold of the market since the April high.. Watch the NASDAQ...

Could the S&P 500 be finding support near today's low?

A drop of 8.8% from its April recovery high isn’t anything to call home about, but, as Briefing.com points out in a very interesting piece of analysis today, that makes the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index one of the best performing in the world. And, as...

More testing ahead for stocks

Not so long ago, November 18 to be precise, I wrote that the rally was still firmly in charge. Right now I’d take out that word “firmly.” I had thought that when the Standard & Poor’s 500 closed above 1110 on November 17 stocks were done consolidating and had...

This rally faces important short-term technical challenges

Last week put this rally at one of those short-term turning points. A number of markets are challenging critical ceilings or testing major support levels. That’s likely to keep investors nervous, and the markets jittery, until the trend resolves into continued...

Rallies after short-term dips making bears cautious

It’s drops like we had at the end of the day on Wednesday followed by rallies like we had on Thursday that are keeping bears from launching a major attack on this rally. Wednesday’s sell off at the end of the day looked like it might lead to a big enough...

Is 1120 the next big test for the S&P 500?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is closing in on 10,000 again and you can expect the financial talking heads to get all breathless as we approach that mark. But for investors the index to watch and the number to watch in the next few weeks is the Standard &...

Stocks test the top of their range

Nice of the stock market to cooperate while I was on vacation. Stocks didn’t move substantially higher and they didn’t move substantially lower while I was away from my desk in the last weeks of August. The market was what I’d call range bound for...