In the U.S. this looks like just a 5% pullback
I think we’re looking at a pullback in U.S. stocks. A pullback in my book is about 5%. It’s less than a correction, which is a drop of 10%. (Please note I’m talking about U.S. stocks only in this post.) The reasons for this are numerous: An overbought market that’s...10 stocks picks for profiting in a volatile 2011
2011 is shaping up to be a volatile year. The euro debt crisis threatens to expand to include Spain—before Greece and Ireland have moved out of danger. The U.S. economy seems to be on a path of moderate growth but the end of spending from the 2009 stimulus package in...Will higher stock prices lead the economy upward? Latest Fed numbers on family net wealth say it could be happening
The Federal Reserve may not be having much luck using its $600 billion quantitative easing program to reduce interest rates in order to stimulate the economy—the yields on 10-year Treasuries are climbing–but it looks like the wealth effect might be ready to ride...Why 2010 was so volatile–and why 2011 will be just as wild a ride
Take the long view and look at 2010 as a whole now that we’re near the year’s end, and it looks just slightly better than average for the stock market. In 2010, in fact, investors earned a return that clearly but not hugely above the stock market average...Has Santa Claus settled in on Wall Street? Certainly today optimism from Goldman Sachs outweighed the euro crisis
For the day Goldman Sachs and strong U.S. retail sales and housing numbers trumped disappointment over a tepid response to the euro debt crisis from the European Central Bank. This morning Goldman Sachs raised its rating on U.S. financial stocks to overweight and...The U.S. is the champion stock market in the world–at the moment–although its reign is likely to be rather short
When you’re being chased by a bear, you don’t have to run faster than the bear; you just have to run faster than the other guy. Good advice when you’re camping in bear country. Good advice, too, when you’re thinking about how to allocate your money in the current very...2011 is going to be different than investors thought even a few weeks ago
Time to re-think 2011. The news of the last three weeks plus the market reaction to that news demands a rethink of investment strategy for 2011. 2011is going to be a lot less linear, a lot more volatile—if not necessary more or less profitable– than I thought it...With no strong trend out of today's market, stocks hang on tomorrow's news flow
Bounce or rally? We still don’t know. The U.S. stock markets started with a strong bounce this morning. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index moved up 1.1% off the starting line. Key was “news” from Europe that suggested Ireland might be closer to a rescue deal. That...Stocks take a lickin' and keep on tickin'
Cue the plague of locusts and the rain of frogs. The market has had just about everything else thrown at it today. And at the close the Standard & Poor’s 500 has held at its 20-day moving average of 1195 or so. Want a list of what hit the fan today? The leaders of...So who won the elections?–which stocks? I mean
The U.S Chamber of Commerce had spent $35 million on the mid-term elections as of November 2, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. American Crossroads, another independent organization, spent $22 million. The Club for Growth $8 million. The National...Financials come alive–raising the odds for a fourth quarter rally
I’ve posted repeatedly in the last few weeks that it would be hard for this rally to extend a lot further unless we got leadership from financial stocks. Financials jumped yesterday, November 4—and that may mark the leadership I’ve been looking for. The Financial...Cash flows reverse and money finally starts to go back into stock mutual funds
Does this make you nervous or confident? Individual investors have finally decided to stop withdrawing money from equity mutual funds in order to buy bond mutual funds. Since the start of September $13.3 billion has flowed into U.S stock funds and $1.2 billion back...It's the return of "Sell on the news"–nothing better, nothing worse
We’re starting to see stocks drop after companies report good earnings. That’s not surprising. In fact it’s over due after a rally like this one. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 13% since August 26 as of October 25. Inevitably after stocks have climbed so...How to profit today when you think the financial zombies will walk tomorrow
Woody Harrelson never stops killing zombies to ask, Should I buy more inflation protected Treasuries? With the zombies at the door, at the windows, in the car … it would be a silly question. But it’s exactly the kind of question investors have to ask. We may think the...Two big positive surprises for stocks this morning but the market is having trouble, so far, in building on them
There’s good news that’s good news for stocks: Like this morning’s (October 25) surprise jump in sales of existing homes. Sales grew by 10% to a 4.53 million annual rate in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s up from a 4.12 million...Testing time for the current rally over the next two weeks
The next two weeks are shaping up as a critical test for the U.S. stock market. Last week a number of key technical indicators stalled in the last few days if they’re waiting for something. Today, October 25, started out with a bang but the markets have pulled off...The trading day starts off DOWN in China
So far on China’s stock markets it’s still the same old story: Anytime the central bank raises interest rates, as it did yesterday October 19, or does anything that might slow growth or hinder asset speculation, stocks drop like a stone. Except for real estate...The odds go up for an earnings season stock-market dip
Disturbing background for the third quarter earnings season that starts this week raises the odds for a dip on earnings news over the next few weeks. Wall Street analysts cut their estimates for 2011 earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 in...Movement without direction: That was the stock market story last week but it's about to change
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed on Friday September 24 at 1149. The index closed on Friday October 1 at 1146. That’s a net move of 3 points in five trading sessions. For the past week stocks have been stuck in a rut. Spinning their wheels. As stagnant...Getcha predictions here: My scorecard for the fourth quarter
It’s a new quarter. Do we know any more about the trend in the stock market and the economy than we did at the start of last quarter Well, actually a little bit. I don’t think we’re at “Bet the farm” certainty, but figuring out the trend isn’t quite as confounding as...One unexpected thing that could stop this rally
So what could stop this rally? Now that it has broken through resistance at 1127 and 1130 on the Standard & Poor’s 500–and even briefly traded at the May high of 1150—what could prevent this rally from running straight through September (historically the...So where is this rally headed now? And how long will it run?
Why have stocks rallied so strongly in September? I don’t think it has anything to do with currently observable improvement in the economy. I think what we have seen so far is investors—mostly hedge funds—who had bet that the economy was going to sour reversing that...Stocks take out the top of the trading range today
(On normal market days, I publish everything first–usually by three days or so–on my subscription newsletter Jubak Asset Management (Jubakam.com). But on days when the market moves big–up or down–or when there’s some breaking news that...Is the economy stronger than the numbers say?
There’s good reason to suspect that the early September rally that began on September 1 is going to peter out. From 1049 at the close on August 31, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index had climbed 7% by September 13. That’s 7% in just seven trading sessions. It’s...Want to know what to own for the next rally? Use this market as a dry run
Think of the huge jump in stocks on Wednesday, September 1, as a dry run for the eventual stock market rally. I don’t think that rally is here yet. I think the move that began on September 1 was a bounce, a very welcome bounce but still a bounce, as the extreme...Finally–the launch of my new subscription newsletter
It took a little longer than I expected (what with the simultaneous launch of the Jubak Global Equity Fund) but it’s finally here… Ta da!! The Jubak Asset Management newsletter and website. As promised, as my thanks for a year of your loyalty to JubakPicks.com (Yep, I...Announcing a mutual fund from Jim Jubak
It’s named the Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX). It’s available now. Today. This minute. Follow this link to find out more about how to invest. Or read more here. So why am I starting a mutual fund? Three reasons, really. First, a lot of readers have asked over...Here's how the tide is running in earnings season–and some ways to profit from the flow
We’re just a little bit more than a week into earnings season and already some themes have started to emerge from the numbers. Nothing definite. Call them “tendencies.” But I’m finding connections among the results—and the investor reaction to the results that will be...Scorecard, get your scorecard here as the market moves into earnings season
The rally last week—a gain of 5.4% on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index—puts the stock market in a very interesting position as earnings season starts. (Alcoa ((AA) traditionally kicks off the week and the aluminum maker reported Monday July 12.) Instead of...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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