Is today (or maybe tomorrow?) the moment of maximum short-term fear? On my subscription JubakAM site, I’m selling one of my Call Options on the VIX fear index today
Back on March 6, I bought Call Options on the CBEO S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) at a strike of 23 for the May 17 and June 21 expirations for my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JubakAM.com site. My logic was that at 18 or so, the VIX was trading at a...
Is this stock market too directionless to be tradable in the short-term?
On Monday consumer discretionary stocks gained as investors decided risk was again “buyable.” The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gained 2.25% on the day while the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETFdipped 0.31%. Tuesday,April 5...
More hedges against Russia/Ukraine conflict and higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAM.Com and JugglingWithKnives.com. Over the weekend I recommended using natural gas stocks as a way to hedge the risk of a Russia/Ukraine conflict and ensuing sanctions against Russia. I recommended shares of...
How much of a hedge do you need–and how much can you afford
I try to use big up and (especially) down days in the stock market to stress test my portfolio. One of the things I look to learn from a high volatility down days is how the hedges that I’ve put on to protect my portfolio work under big stress. So, for example,...
Market looks to be setting up for next week’s tech earnings parade
The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.20% today, July 22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average squeezed out a 0.07% gain. But if you were looking for bigger upside moves, turn your eyes to the technology sector. The NASDAQ Composite was up 0.36% and the NASDAQ...
Buying AMD shares and options tomorrow as my play on a second quarter earnings season surprise
Yesterday in my video “3 Picks for an Earnings Blowout” I argued the case that even the 61% second quarter year to year jump in earnings in the Wall Street analyst consensus was unerstated. For example, I noted that the current estimate of $44.91 a share...
On the market’s risk complacency, I’m adding another VIX call to my Volatility Portfolio–this one for October
The CBOE S&P Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 8.9% on Friday, June 4, to 16.44. It’ up just slightly today to 16.73 (up 1.89%) as of 2 p.m. New York time. That’s, in my opinion, an extremely low reading on the fear index considering how many potentially...
Take what the market is giving you: Three short-term moves for short-and mid-term gains
The one certainty in the stock market right now, I’d say, is volatility. Both to the upside and to the downside. So I think we should take what the market is giving us. Using these three moves in the short term. 1. Buy a few buy on the dip candidates from my...
Don’t forget the “animal spirits”
I left my keyboard at 11:30 this morning to go for a walk in my neighborhood. The temperature was near 60 degrees in New York City. The sun was out. Restaurants with outdoor space were full. Columbia and Barnard students were out in skirts and even a few tank tops....
Watch out for tomorrow’s very misleading GDP report for the third quarter
I was going to add more downside protection today but I’m putting any Put or short ETF buying off for a day or so–until I see how disruptive to the current downward trend tomorrow the first read on third quarter GDP, to be released tomorrow before the...
Dow plunges 800 points; S&P 500 down 4.25% at its low for the day–but what happened today?
I love this headline today on Yahoo Finance: “Stocks post worst day since June.” Since June!! What else were you expecting in a rally that has become completely unmoored from any fundamentals in the real world. Remember that when some talking head ties to...
In a bear market panic, it’s really, really hard to figure which way stocks will jump on any particular day.
Yesterday, Â I sold my Put options on Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) with gains of around 100% in each since I added them to my Volatility Portfolio (on my subscription JugglingwithKnives.com and JubakAM.com sites) on March 10. I’d bought those Puts in order to...
Here’s how on my paid sites I’m using Put Options in AMZN, NFLX, and BA to hedge against the bear
I don’t use options on this site or in any of the Jubak Picks portfolios. But I do in the Volatility Portfolio on my paid JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com paid sites. This week I’ve bought Put Options–which go up in price when the underlying...
Oil sells off as Hurricane Michael goes from “rumor” to “fact”
Today’s drop in oil prices looks to me to be a classic buy on the rumor sell on the fact trade. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.81% today to $72.85. International benchmark Brent crude fell 2.68% to $82.72 a barrel. Yesterday oil moved up as...
Nektar up 6.32% today on opioid data presentation
Frankly, my holdings of shares and options on Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) are driving me nuts. The stock is just so volatile that I can barely stand it even though I’m comfortable with the long-term trajectory of the company’s new non-addictive opioid and...
Nektar’s 40% drop yesterday was an extreme over-reaction: What I’m doing now
It’s never good to turn in disappointing results in a drug trial–as Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) did over the weekend–but to whack 40% off the stock price on this news is an extreme over-reaction. To justify a 40% drop you have to assume 1) that the...
Book keeping changes: Statoil (STO) changes its name and ticker to Equinor (EQNR)
A change in the name and ticker of portfolio holding Statoil (STO). The explanation offered by the company is that it wanted to remove “oil” from its name to better reflect the company’s increasing emphasis on other forms of energy including wind...
Ignore the short-term oil volatility and continue to hold Pioneer Natural Resources for the long-term story
So much near-term noise. Â Since Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) reported earnings on May 2–the company beat Wall Street estimates on earnings by 16 cents a share and reported revenue in-line with projections and up 56.5% year over year–there’s been...
Positive catalysts are intact for Nektar Therapeutics
Shares of biotech rocket Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) are down 23.25% since they traded at $106.91 on March 21, 2018. I can’t find evidence that the positive catalysts that led me to recommend the stock for my Jubak Picks portfolio and the options for my...
Statoil drops after 33% jump in profit falls short of Wall Street hopes
There’s no pleasing the market these days. Shares of Statoil (STO) fell 1.54% to $24.96 today after the company reported first quarter earnings of $4.4 billion, its highest quarterly profit in three years and 33% higher than in the first quarter of 2017. But the...
Nektar blows away revenue projections, gives very positive guidance on drug pipeline
Shares of Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) finished up 21.67% today to $102.87 after the biotech company announced after the close yesterday a smaller than expected fourth quarter 2017 loss of 21 cents a share (versus the Wall Street consensus projection of a 36 cents a...
Nektar soars today on J.P. Morgan healthcare conference
Anybody still think that conferences, especially biotech conferences, don’t move stock prices? Shares of Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) are up 7.65% today to $61.79 as of noon New York time on the company’s appearance at this week’s J.P. Morgan biotech...
On the second day of Christmas my stock pick for 2018 is Nektar Therapeutics–and two-turtle doves
No point in hoping that Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) will match this year’s gain of 364% as of the close on December 18. But I think the stock could easily climb another 30% or more in 2018 as the company de-risks its very promising drug candidates in the opioid...
Nektar soared today on cancer drug data–but remember that new opioid? That’s why I say “Buy” in Jubak Picks even after this run
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) shares finished the day up 14.15% on fairly preliminary, but very important data from the trials of the company’s lead cancer drug. Those results go a long way to validating the company’s entire pipeline of drug candidates to...
Tech slide continues, casting doubt on “buy on the dip” strength
Anyone who bought technology stocks on the dip last Friday and Monday is feeling unhappy today. And that spells a worried market. Especially since key stocks in the sector such as Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are showing signs of breaking through important support....
How dangerous was Friday’s tech sell off? And what should you do about it? Get the scoop by signing up for your 30-days of free access to my paid JubakAM site. Hurry, though, there are only 6 days left to my 20th anniversary offer
What are you waiting for? You’ve only got 6 days left to take shameless advantage of me. To celebrate the 20th anniversary of JubakPicks.com I’m giving away 30-days of free access to my subscription site JubakAM.comm but that offer is only good until the...
2 new volatility stock picks on my paid JubakAM.com site: Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and sign up for your 30-days of free access to read all about them
What are you waiting for? If you haven’t signed up for my free offer of 30-day of access to my JubakAM.com site, why not? You don’t want to read about new stock picks for my Volatility Portfolio? Ordinarily I’d write a teaser here to let you know...
Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and use your 30-days of free access to my $199 paid JubakAM.com site to read my take on tomorrow’s market volatility
Usually I’d be teasing my post on my paid JubakAM.site here and telling you to subscribe if you want to read all of what I think tomorrow will bring after today’s extraordinary volatility. The Dow Industrials fell 372 points and the VIX volatility index...
Oil back down this morning as “hedgies” reposition
So much for Monday’s oil rally. This morning, a day after Russia and Saudi Arabia succeeded in talking up oil prices with promises that OPEC and allied non-OPEC producers would extend the current production cuts past their June expiration until the end of 2017,...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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