September 14, 2022 @ 10:07 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-fifth YouTube video: “The Fed’s Real Inflation Problem” went up today. The CPI numbers came out and they were disappointing with inflation running at an 8.3% annual rate in August. But the inflation problem is worst than...
September 12, 2022 @ 12:32 pm | Breaking News, Buy Hold Sell |
All attention on Tuesday morning’s report of Consumer Price Index inflation for August. It is likely to drive stocks higher in a continuation of Friday’s advance. But the report will not change the Federal Reserve’s mind about increasing interest...
September 8, 2022 @ 5:00 pm | Breaking News |
The swings today, September 8, are a good reminder of how volatile this market is. The Standard & Poor’s 500 broke to the upside with a gain of 0.80% as of 11:20 New York time. Then, with Fed chair Jerome Powell emphasizing the central bank’s...
September 7, 2022 @ 6:50 pm | Breaking News |
Yesterday Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin told The Financial Times that interest rates must stay high until inflation improves. 4% interest rates wouldn’t surprise him, he said. And today Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said at the...
August 11, 2022 @ 7:17 pm | Breaking News |
It didn’t take long. The pixels were barely dry on yesterday’s CPI inflation report–headline inflation fell to a year-over-year rate of 8.5% in July from 9.1% in June–before members of the Federal Reserve warned that the stock market rally on...
August 8, 2022 @ 7:05 pm | Breaking News |
All eyes will be on the July CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report due on Wednesday, August 10, before the market open. The market hope is that we’ll see the first signs that inflation has peaked after the headline CPI inflation surged at a 9.1% annual...
August 8, 2022 @ 6:59 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-sixty-fifth YouTube video “Trend of the Week The Fed Talks but the Market’s Not Listening” went up today. The market has strongly rallied in the last month, in good part on the optimistic belief in a “soft landing” from...
July 29, 2022 @ 7:29 pm | Breaking News |
After looking like it was over earlier in the week with a significant pull back on Tuesday, July 26, stocks have rallied in the last two days, gaining 3.85% by the Thursday, July 28 close from that Tuesday low. And right now all the ducks are lined up in a row for a...
July 21, 2022 @ 10:44 pm | Breaking News |
Initial claims for unemployment totaled 251,000 for the week ended July 16, up 7,000 from the week before, the Labor Department reported today, July 21. Economists were looking for 240,000 initial claims. That was the highest weekly number since November 13, 2021 The...
July 14, 2022 @ 7:13 pm | Breaking News |
After Wednesday’s report that CPI inflation hit an annual 9.1% rate in June, a 100-basis-point interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s July 27 meeting is on the table. (Which is literally what Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told reporters...
July 14, 2022 @ 7:09 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-fifty-seventh YouTube video “Inflation isn’t about to get better” went up today. Yesterday, we had new CPI inflation numbers, and the bar keeps pushing higher with annual inflation reaching 9.1% in June. I think if you are making...
July 13, 2022 @ 10:57 pm | Breaking News |
According to new data from foot traffic analytics platform Placer.ai, coffee visits at big coffee chains like Dunkin’ and Starbucks (SBUX) dropped below traffic for quick service restaurants for the first time all year during June. The drop in June is quite a...
July 13, 2022 @ 10:44 pm | Breaking News |
It’s not the kind of historical comparison you want to hear. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI rose at a 9.1% annual rate in June. That was the highest annual rate since November 1981. (Just as the Volcker Fed was raising interest rates to...
June 27, 2022 @ 7:48 pm | Breaking News |
I see 2 big volatility events ahead of us in July that are powerful enough to move stocks. Get on the right side of these and there’s money to be made. Here’s how I handicap these two events. First, the Consumer Price Index report on inflation for June is...
June 22, 2022 @ 7:47 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation” went up today. In front of the Senate Finance Committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed has all the tools it needs to fight inflation–except,...
June 20, 2022 @ 10:30 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, PFXF, VGSH |
I’ve overstayed my welcome in the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and the VanEck Preferred Securities ex-Financials ETF (PFXF), but with the Federal Reserve accelerating its interest rate increases, I think selling these two members of my Dividend...
June 20, 2022 @ 7:34 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-seventh YouTube video “Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates” went up today. My Trend of the Week video this week looks at hedge fund gurus who have been yelling that the Federal Reserve needs even bigger interest rate increases...
June 14, 2022 @ 3:27 pm | Breaking News |
I know this seems bass-ackwards. Stocks have spent two days in a vigorous sell off because of fears of higher interest rates and worries, after Friday’s surprise surge in CPI inflation to an 8.6% annual rate in May, that the Fed might decide to raise interest...
June 13, 2022 @ 7:44 pm | Breaking News, Buy Hold Sell |
The latest Consumer Expectations survey (that is for May) from the New York Federal Reserve shows U.S. households’ anticipate inflation will rise at a 6.6% annual rate over the next year. That’s up from April expectations for a 6.3% rate. The May...
June 10, 2022 @ 9:57 pm | Breaking News |
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation in May rose to a new annual high rate of 8.6% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, June 10. Headline prices rose 1% from April. The big drivers were, as expected, food (with prices up at a 10.1% annual rate)...
June 9, 2022 @ 9:53 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundred-and-forty-second YouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds...
June 2, 2022 @ 10:56 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-ninth YouTube video “Beware the Dot Plot” went up today. The next Fed meeting is June 15, and I think there isn’t much to worry about in terms of a coming rate increase (we know it will be 50 basis points, which the market...
May 31, 2022 @ 11:09 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-eighth YouTube video “Trend of the Week:Housing market cools” went up today. We’re seeing some of the first effects of the Fed’s increase in interest rates in the cooling of the housing market. In Austin, for...
May 27, 2022 @ 5:38 pm | Breaking News |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh YouTube video “We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
May 27, 2022 @ 5:35 pm | Breaking News |
In today’s YouTube video I argue that the Federal Reserve will have engineer a recession if it is serious about bringing inflation under control. This post gets more into the specific details of why I think that’s true than the video does. (I suggest...
May 25, 2022 @ 4:26 pm | Breaking News |
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 4 meeting shows central bank officials in agreement on the ned for 50-basis-point interest rate increases at the June and July meetings. And then, the minutes say, the Fed would respond to developments in the economy either...
May 18, 2022 @ 3:48 pm | Breaking News, COST, Jubak Picks Portfolio, WMT |
As of 3:30 p.m. Wednesday May 18 shares of Target (TGT) were down 25% for the day after the company reported a big earnings miss for the first quarter. Let’s be clear. The sales picture at Target was very positive for the quarter. Same store sales were up 3.3%...
May 12, 2022 @ 7:07 pm | Breaking News |
But did he have to say it? The financial market would prefer not to think about inflation all the time. The markets are indeed pretty good at ignoring the inconvenient. But this morning Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said out loud what Wall...
May 11, 2022 @ 7:13 pm | Breaking News, Buy Hold Sell, You May Have Missed |
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, fell in April to a year over year rate of 8.3%. That was down from an 8.5% rate in March, raising hopes that the economy had seen the inflation peak. But economists had been projecting a drop to 8.0% in April. Which...
May 9, 2022 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News |
Normally, a report of 8% year over year inflation wouldn’t be considered good news for the financial markets. But in case you haven’t noticed, these aren’t normal times. Which means a report of 8% year over year inflation in April in the Consumer...