Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Will China Send the Global Economy Surging?
Today’s topic is Will China Send the Global Economy Surging? We’ll really know the answer to this starting on Sunday, when the National People’s Congress of China meets. The leaders of China will make some important decisions for the Congress to...
Bad news for 2023 from the IMF
Happy new year from the International Monetary Fund! The new year is going to be “tougher than the year we leave behind,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on CBS on Sunday morning. “We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession. Even...
IMF slashes global economic growth projections again
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth in today’s regular update of its World Economic Outlook. The IMF is now projecting global economic growth of 3.6% in 2022. That’s down from a forecast of 4.4% growth in January...
Watch my new YouTube video: Time to Worry About China Too
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-seventh YouTube video “Time to Worry About China Too” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Watch my new YouTube video: Will China sink global stocks?
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My thirty-ninth YouTube video “Will China sink global stocks?”-went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
China reports first quarter GDP growth of 18.3% from first quarter of 2020
China’s Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s gross domestic product climbed 18.3% in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2020. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 18.5% year over year growth. The growth rate broke all records...
China’s economic recovery slowed by weak domestic demand
In July China’s industrial output climbed by 4.8% year over year, Beijing announced today. That’s the same rate as in June. This good news in that it shows the post-coronavirus recovery continues in the industrial sector. But it’s bad news in that...
Double whammy: IMF downgrades growth forecast, states report surging coronavirus cases
As of 1 p.m. today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down 2.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 2.29%. The tech-heavy NASDAQn Composite, a recent market bulwark, dropped 1.80% and the Russell 2000 small cap index resumed its...
Oil inventories prove stubbornly high
Inventories of gasoline and distillates fell last week, as they should even in a coronavirus-impacted summer driving season, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported today. But crude inventories remained stubbornly high, an indication that the rise in...
PMI survey shows U.S. manufacturing remains barely above contraction in February; still better than China’s deep drop
The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing fell to 50.1 in February, down from 50.9 in January. In this survey anything above 50 signals an expansion. The report was good news of a sort since U.S. manufacturing in...
Jim’s Extra!! China after the coronavirus: President Xi will be under intense pressure to stimulate the economy–will that mean a wave of stimulus?
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
Oil and oil stocks take double hit today
The combination of a big build in U.S. crude inventories this week and fears that the escalating U.S.-China trade war will slow global economic growth (and global oil demand) took a big whack out of oil prices and oil stocks today. The U.S. Energy Information...
Copper meeting bullish on projected supply deficit
The big Cesco copper conference in Santiago, Chile, has been remarkably bullish considering worries about global economic growth and the Chinese economy. That’s because there looks like a significant gap in the development of new supplies in 2019 and 2020 that...
Global trade growth continues to slow in three months through January
The figures are short-term and tentative but the trend isn’t good. Global trade volume fell 1.8% in the three months through January from the previous three months, according to the World Trade Monitor from the statistics office of the Netherlands. That’s...
China data nudge to global growth fears
Overnight, China reported as larger than expected December trade surplus ($57.06 billion against an expected $51.53 billion) but a December year over year 7.6% drop in imports that argued for a slowdown in China’s domestic economy. Economists had expected a 5%...
Asian manufacturing data spur stock tumble
It’s not just China anymore. Unfortunately. The Caixin Media and IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index for China’s manufacturing sector fell to 49.7 in December from 50.2, its lowest reading since May 2017. That confirms a trend seen in the official...
The key to this bear market–it’s global; and any turn about will have to be global too
If you’re trying to figure out this market–and who isn’t?–down 700 points on the Dow on Monday; up 1000 on Wednesday, down 400 points on Thursday before finishing up 250 points, I’d suggest starting with the observation that this bear...
Rally shifts into reverse as Trump administration announces more U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports likely on the way
Monday, October 29, started off with a technology-led rally. As of 10:04 a.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 1.81% and the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite was higher by 1.75%. And then Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was...
International Monetary Fund cuts global growth estimates
Just what we need: More worries about global growth. Last night the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 2019. In its last forecast three months ago the IMF had projected that the global economy would grow...
China slows a “wee bit”–but that’s too much for an already nervous market
Growth in China’s economy has slipped to the lowest rate since 2016. Which isn’t huge negative news except that Chinese financial markets are already nervous enough to have pushed Chinese stocks into a bear market. In the second quarter of 2018 annual...
Selling copper pick Freeport McMoran on fears of U.S./China tariff war
Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX) was the third and last copper stock I added to my portfolios back in January 12, 2018–after Southern Copper (SCCO) and First Quantum Minerals (FQMLF). I added so much copper since copper prices were soaring in 2017–up...
Rethinking 2018: Growth looks marginally slower, risk higher even in first half
It’s only March but I’m rethinking my take on 2018. When the calendar pages turned over into 2018, my take on the year was that for stocks the first half would be much like 2017: Despite rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve, there was enough...
China plans for slightly slower growth in 2018
Meeting in Beijing today, the National People’s Congress approved plans laid out by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to set the target for economic growth at 6.5% for the next year and to reduce the government deficit to 2.6% of GDP from the 3% of the...
Trump’s announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs sink U.S. stocks
This morning President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum “for a long period of time.” The President said he will sign a formal order next week. The timing...
Possibly meaningless Chinese economic data lead global markets down
Overnight numbers showed that China’s purchasing managers index for manufacturing fell to 50.3 in February. That was down from 51.3 in January and the biggest drop in five years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a reading of 51.1 in the index. The...
Global manufacturing continues its strong run
The global economy just keeps on running in high gear. For the United States, today the ISM Manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management) climbed to 59.7 for December, well above the 58.2 in November. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a reading of...
Market reacts to Fed meeting–and then over-reacts as it hears Fed say rates will stay really low for really longer
In the run up to Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee bond markets over-reacted. The worry for those few days was that the Fed was going to very aggressively raise interest rates. Maybe as many as four interest rates were on...
How bad will the effects of Brexit be? Pick your time frame
German investor confidence fell in July on worries over the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union. Released today the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, which looks six months ahead ( in other words into early 2017), fell to -6.8 from...Rethinking emerging markets after Libya? Who isn't? Here's how that violence has changed my thinking.
Is the violence in Libya the last straw for the world’s emerging economies? Or at least for investors in those markets? I certainly think that the big drops in emerging market stock markets are leading some investors to abandon markets that they never felt all that...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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