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Odds of a December interest rate increase soaring

Odds of a December interest rate increase soaring

The financial markets are taking Janet Yellen seriously. In a speech yesterday the Fed chair strongly supported an interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s December 13 meeting. Coming along with comments from other Fed governors, the markets have decided...
No surprises from the Fed–for 2017 anyway

No surprises from the Fed–for 2017 anyway

At today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market committee, the central bank kept its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at 1% to 1.25%, and announced that it would implement its plan to shrink its $4.5 trillion balance sheet by $10...
All eyes on the Fed’s Dot Plot after Wednesday’s meeting

All eyes on the Fed’s Dot Plot after Wednesday’s meeting

The Dot Plot is a feature of every quarterly meeting of the Federal Reserve. It tracks changes in the consensus (and range) of opinion at the Fed on core macro economic issues such as inflation and interest rates. And, most importantly, it tracks changes in opinion at...
Inflation holds steady at annual 1.7% rate

Inflation holds steady at annual 1.7% rate

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July from June. CPI headline inflation is now running at a 1.7% annual rate, below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% inflation. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in July and is also...
Inflation at the wholesale level edges up slightly

Inflation at the wholesale level edges up slightly

A day after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen boosted markets with her worries about slow inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released numbers on inflation at the producer level–otherwise known as wholesale inflation–that showed inflation is weak...
On Monday Manufacturing ISM blew out projections for June

On Monday Manufacturing ISM blew out projections for June

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for June released Monday morning climbed to 57.8 from 54.9 in May. That was the highest level of the index, where anything above 50 signals expansion, since 2014. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had...
June 14 interest rate increase would be non-event

June 14 interest rate increase would be non-event

The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on June 14. And it’s a strong consensus, to put it mildly with the CME Fed Watch tool calculating that the Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 95.8% chance of an interest rate...
April new home sales disappoint

April new home sales disappoint

New home sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000. That was well below the consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com for annualized sales of 605,000. The April annualized rate was down 11.4% from March. The housing market...