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June 14 interest rate increase would be non-event

June 14 interest rate increase would be non-event

The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on June 14. And it’s a strong consensus, to put it mildly with the CME Fed Watch tool calculating that the Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 95.8% chance of an interest rate...
April new home sales disappoint

April new home sales disappoint

New home sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000. That was well below the consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com for annualized sales of 605,000. The April annualized rate was down 11.4% from March. The housing market...
U.S. GDP growth rate a tepid 0.7% in first quarter

U.S. GDP growth rate a tepid 0.7% in first quarter

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 0.7% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported this morning. That’s the slowest pace in three years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for growth of better than 1%. The Atlanta...
Jobs report not too hot, not too cold

Jobs report not too hot, not too cold

So how many lives does this Goldilocks market have, anyway? This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added just 98,000 jobs in March. That was the weakest gain since May 2015 and way under the 180,000 jobs expected by economists...

Inflation continues to climb, CPI says

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index,  rose in January by a larger than forecast 0.6%.  That’s a pickup from the 0.3% rise in December and brings the 12-month inflation rate to 2.5%, the highest since March 2012. The core CPI, which excludes...

Goldilocks returns with January jobs report

The January jobs report showing a net gain of 227,000 jobs (versus the consensus of 170,000 among economists surveyed by Briefing.com) would have been enough to send stock and Treasury bond prices down and the dollar up because the very strong job creation in January...