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Odds of a December interest rate increase soaring

Odds of a December interest rate increase soaring

The financial markets are taking Janet Yellen seriously. In a speech yesterday the Fed chair strongly supported an interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s December 13 meeting. Coming along with comments from other Fed governors, the markets have decided...
Quiet day so far but trends intact under surface

Quiet day so far but trends intact under surface

A very subdued market so far (at 2 p.m. New York time) today. Maybe its the solar eclipse. After all who wants to put on a long position when the sun is about to be eaten by dragons? As of 2 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up just 0.06%. But...

Goldilocks returns with January jobs report

The January jobs report showing a net gain of 227,000 jobs (versus the consensus of 170,000 among economists surveyed by Briefing.com) would have been enough to send stock and Treasury bond prices down and the dollar up because the very strong job creation in January...
Trump talks down dollar–and U.S. stocks

Trump talks down dollar–and U.S. stocks

The U.S. dollar fell today after President-elect Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. currency was too high–in part because China holds down the price of the yuan. On the comments the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 1.1% as of noon New...
China’s export engine falters again

China’s export engine falters again

Calculated in yuan, China’s exports rose a tepid year-over-year 0.6% in December. Unfortunately, China’s export companies don’t pay for raw materials such as oil and copper or for subassemblies from Malaysia or Indonesia in yuan but in most cases in...
Mixed fallout from higher revision to U.S. GDP growth

Mixed fallout from higher revision to U.S. GDP growth

The news that U.S. economic growth in the third quarter had been revised upward to 3.5% from an earlier 3.2% has been a mixed blessing for the financial markets. Higher growth has helped stocks resume their post-election rally. But it hasn’t helped the bond...
Pre-holiday move to safety starts a little early

Pre-holiday move to safety starts a little early

With trading volumes already starting to slip–trading in Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks was running about 25% below its average for this time of day at noon today–traders and investors are locking in some gains and seeking safety for the week...