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How long will consumers dip into savings to keep spending?

How long will consumers dip into savings to keep spending?

Yesterday I wrote >http://jubakpicks.com/what-me-worry/ that the combination of slower GDP growth (1.2%) in the second quarter plus declining consumer sentiment worried me. Continued strong consumer spending–household consumption grew at a 4.2% rate–in...
What me worry?

What me worry?

Am I the only one who finds Friday’s GDP report of 1.2% annualized growth worrying? Especially when combined with a drop in consumer sentiment? What’s bothering me? The deeply disappointing second quarter GDP number was only as good as it was because...

Update Coach (COH)

Coach (COH) has successfully gone global. I think that’s the message in the September quarter results reported on October 26. The company ended its June fiscal 2010 year with 20% of the U.S. handbag market and a 16% market share in Japan. Sales doubled to $100 million...

Update Ctrip.com (CTRP)

It’s tempting to say that the 6% drop in Ctrip.com’s (CTRP) shares on August 10 after the company’s August 9 earnings report was just the usual selling on the news by momentum investors who are unhappy that the company only beat Wall Street estimates by 2 cents a...

Sell McDonald's (MCD)

McDonald’s (MCD) has put together an extraordinary 2010—so far. But I’m not as excited about the second half of the year, especially not at current share prices. On Monday August 9 McDonald’s announced that global comparable store sales climbed 7% in July from July...

May core retail sales growth stays positive–barely

Bad news in this morning’s U.S. retail sales number but not as bad as it seems. The all-in, headline number showed retail sales plunging by 1.2% in May from April’s levels. If you discount the downturn that resulted when the cash for clunkers program ended, this is...

Update Middleby (MIDD)

Given the mood of the market right now, Middleby’s (MIDD) May 12 earnings report was a perfect storm of bad news. The company missed Wall Street earnings estimates for the first quarter by 8 cents a share and revenue fell by 11.5% from the first quarter of 2009. And...

Buy Whirlpool (WHR)

For investors interested in buying shares of Whirlpool (WHR) the recent market rout amounts to a giant rewind. On April 26 Whirlpool (WHR) blew away Wall Street earnings estimates for the first quarter of 2010. Earnings of $2.13 a share came in a full 80 cents above...

Update Coach (COH)

Looking for signs that the global consumer is back? You’ll find them in the third quarter fiscal 2010 earnings that Coach (COH) reported before the stock market opened on April 20. The company announced earnings of 50 cents a share, 4 cents a share above Wall Street...

Update Coach (COH)

I’m filing this update from the beach. I’m on vacation the week of March 29 April 2. Unless the sun stops shining here in the Bahamas (or the kids decide to hire themselves out on a fishing boat), I don’t anticipate filing more than once a day for this week....

Credit card charge offs fell in February–at most banks

If the economy is getting better, you’d expect defaults and delinquencies on credit cards to be falling, right? So are they? Is the credit card picture getting better or worse? It’s an important question for the direction of the economy: You can’t expect consumers to...

Update PepsiCo (PEP)

On Monday, March 15, 2010, the board of directors at PepsiCo (PEP) announced that the company would raise its dividend by 7% to an annual $1.92 a share from the current $1.80. At the 11:30 price of $65.75 that comes to a yield of 2.9%. The company’s next quarterly...

Is China about to start exporting inflation?

Shouldn’t we be seeing more inflation than we are? The anecdotes add up to rising inflation. But you can’t see it in the official numbers. Are the anecdotes misleading? Are the official numbers wrong? Or are we simply looking at a lag between anecdote and official...

Consumers lag but business confidence builds on recovery

Hmmm. Is that a trend I see in today’s economic numbers? It sure looks like we’re seeing a recovery led by business and manufacturing, and where consumers still lag. Today’s (February 26) revised numbers for U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) show the economy grew at a...