Update Deere (DE)
Valuing a cyclical stock such as Deere (DE)—which reports fourth quarter fiscal 2010 earnings on Wednesday, November 24–is always difficult. You have to figure out where the company is in the revenue cycle from peak to trough and back again. And you have to...Buy Cosan (CZZ)
Sugar prices, which had been at a 30-year high at the beginning of this week, went through their biggest sell-off in 30 years on Thursday, November 11. That gives us a chance to pick up shares of Cosan (CZZ), Brazil’s big sugar processor and ethanol producer on...Update Silver Wheaton (SLW)
You really need a time line to figure out why Silver Wheaton (SLW) dropped by 7.9% yesterday, November 9. Start here overnight: Silver Wheaton announced third quarter earnings on November 8 after the New York markets had closed. The company beat Wall Street earnings...Buy Silver Wheaton (SLW)
Silver is cheap. Well, it is when compared to gold anyway. On Friday morning gold hit $1397.70 an ounce, an all time high. (If you don’t correct for inflation.) Silver, on the other hand, moved up to $26.90 an ounce. That’s just a 30-year high. See, cheaper. You...Better than TIPS? 3 stocks with inflation protection and a positive yield too
This week investors bought $10 billion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)—and paid for the privilege of lending the Federal government money. Investors paid $105 for each $100 in face value. That reduced the yield on these bonds to a negative 0.55%....Worried about a bubble in industrial metals? It's Wall Street's new ETFs to the rescue
If you own shares of any miner of copper, lead, tin, nickel, zinc, or aluminum, think about sending a thank you note to investment companies such as ETF Securities, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, and Credit Suisse. They’re about to make you...Update Fortescue Metals (FSUMY)
Some movement this week in simplifying the complicated balance sheet of Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMY), the third largest iron ore mining company in Australia. The company’s stock climbed 7.8% on October 11 after Fortescue announced that it had signed a $2.04 billion...Where corn prices go (and that’s UP), meat prices will follow
The fall out continues from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s shocking turnaround on the size of this year’s corn crop. On Friday October 8 the USDA completely reversed its optimistic September 30 projection of corn production for the year and slashed its estimate...Whoops! USDA has to eat its optimistic projections from September 30 on corn crop and sets off commodity surge
It looks like the U.S. Department of Agriculture has been completely wrong-footed by the U.S. corn crop. And that has sent agriculture stocks soaring today, October 8. Just a few months ago the USDA was projecting a record crop. Just a couple of weeks ago on September...Watch the dollar! While the medium and longer-term trend is still down, the U.S. currency is looking like it wants to bounce
When the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the U.S. dollar go head to head, the dollar wins. On October 6, in the second of its “World Economic Outlook” reports for 2010 the IMF was bullish on commodities, especially on base metals such as copper and tin....Copper glitters even more than gold
Copper, that other shiny golden metal, is just as hot as gold right now. And I think the fundamentals for copper are better. After an extraordinary run, Copper pulled back a bit yesterday. If I see a few days of profit taking, I’d look to buy copper stocks. Which...The only thing rarer than rare earths from anywhere other than China is a rare earth stock from anywhere other than China–which is why they're hot (again)
It was something more than a threat but less than an actual embargo. But China seems to be putting the clamps on exports of rare earth minerals to Japan. The New York Times reported on September 23 that China had put an embargo on all exports of rare earth minerals to...Is a new, Chinese bid for Potash of Saskatchewan about to arrive?
This week or next will see a bid from China for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), Canada’s Globe and Mail is reporting. The newspaper’s sources say Beijing is now deciding which of the proposed bids from China’s state-owned companies it should back. Pending Chinese...Update Joy Global (JOYG)
Investors who bid up the price of construction machinery and mining equipment stocks in anticipation of Joy Global (JOYG) earnings announcement before the New York stock market opened on September 1 should be very happy with the company’s earnings report. (For more on...Buy Newmont Mining (NEM)
At some point in every gold rally, the market flips a switch and gold mining stocks start to outperform gold itself. I think we’re at that inflection point now. Analysts on Wall Street are calling for gold to hit $1500 an ounce by December 2011. That would be roughly...Iron ore prices retreat by 12% and iron ore mining stocks say, So what?, and move higher
It’s hard to imagine this happening with any other “product.” The price of the product drops 12% for the next quarter. And the stock market essentially shrugs it off. On a bad day for the market, August 30, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index drops by...Acquisition fever burns hot–here are three stocks to profit from the frenzy
Acquisition frenzy is upon us. August is on a path to be the second best August ever for acquisitions. Making a profit from one of these deals ought to be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. Except it’s not. Many of the barrels as completely void of deals: fire away...Platinum gets center stage in South Africa's politics
Turmoil in South Africa’s mining industry. The most immediate and obvious impact will be on global supply of the platinum group of metals. But since the big mining companies involved produce copper, gold, and other metals in their mining of platinum and palladium, the...A smaller but better fertilizer deal?
It doesn’t have the splash of BHP Billiton’s (BHP) $40 billion bid for Potash of Saskatchewan (POT), but Agrium (AGU)’s attempt to snatch AWB, Australia’s largest wheat exporter away from GrainCorp (GRCLF) is actually a more important deal for the acquirer. It looks...Sell McDonald's (MCD)
McDonald’s (MCD) has put together an extraordinary 2010—so far. But I’m not as excited about the second half of the year, especially not at current share prices. On Monday August 9 McDonald’s announced that global comparable store sales climbed 7% in July from July...Russia's ban on wheat exports sets the commodity markets on fire
On August 5, Russia banned grain exports for the rest of the year. Drought has destroyed about 20% of the wheat crop of one of the world’s top wheat exporters. The ban will run from August 15 until December 31. At a minimum. Wheat prices, already up 70% this summer,...Peabody's the name if Asian coal is the game
(I am on vacation until August 24. During that time Jubak Picks will operate on a reduced schedule of one or two posts a day.) If China is the story in coal—and I think it is since China is now the No. 1 energy consumer and uses about three times as much coal as the...Update Thompson Creek Metals (TC)
Thompson Creek Metals (TC), a Canadian molybdenum producer, has been saying it would do an acquisition if it found a deal the company liked. Well, I guess Thompson Creek found that deal. On July 15 the company announced that it will acquire Terrane Metals (TRX.V in...For commodites stocks, it's wait until next year
No secret that commodity prices have plunged on fears that global economic growth is fading. Or in the case of China slowing from near 12% annually to something like 8% or 9%. And no secret that the prices of commodity stocks have plunged as well. Shares of copper,...Sell Impala Platinum (IMPUY.PK)
I’m going to use the current bounce, World-Cup-rally, summer rally, whatever to sell my position in Impala Platinum (IMPUY.PK). The South African stock looks like it’s in a steady downtrend despite its 13.8% gain off the June 4 low. Platinum was bid up heavily by...Projections for an active hurricane season helped drive yesterday's commodities rally
Who says you can’t do anything about the weather? When the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced yesterday, May 27, that it was projecting one of the most active hurricane seasons on record for the June 1 to November 30, 2010 season,...Update Thompson Creek Metals (TC)
They don’t call these stocks cyclical for no reason. Shares of Thompson Creek Metals (TC), the world’s largest publicly-traded, pure-play molybdenum producer, are down almost 40% from their April 5 high on fears that the world economy, and especially China’s part of...Sell Yara International (YARIY.PK)
I love fertilizer stocks as a long term play on rising global demand for food and Yara International (YARIY), the world’s largest publicly traded fertilizer company, is one of my favorites in the sector. But that’s the long term picture. In the short term Yara...It's hard to find water plays–but here are three from Singapore (Yes, Singapore)
The coming global water shortage. It dwarfs all other potential global shortages. Peak oil? A piker compared to no water. Push comes to shove and we will find replacements for oil. Water? Drink or die. The biology is that simple. In my December 2008 book The Jubak...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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