BHP offers 65% premium for Petrohawk–take the money and find another energy acquisition play

Big news on Petrohawk (HK) since I posted http://jubakpicks.com/2011/07/15/let-the-ma-boom-show-you-where-to-put-your-money-in-this-crazy-market/ on how to use the mergers and acquisitions boom to develop an investing strategy for this crazy market.

After Thursday’s close BHP Billiton (BHP) announced a $12.1 billion cash bid for Petrohawk. The price is about 65% higher than the closing share price for Petrohawk on Thursday at $23.49.

BHP, which earlier this year, paid $4.8 billion to acquire shale oil and gas assets from Chesapeake Energy (CHK), is clearly still in the hunt for more shale acreage. Petrohawk owns about 1 million net acres of shale in the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and Permian basins of Texas and Louisiana. (Eagle Ford is one of my two favorite shale plays—the other is the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana.)

If you own shares of Petrohawk, I’d sell today. At a recent price of $38.20 a share, the stock has captured almost all of BHP Billiton’s $38.75 a share offer.

Where might you put that cash to work? Read more

Update BHP Billiton (BHP)

As tea leaves go, those presented to investors in BHP Billiton’s (BHP) February 16 post-earnings-report conference call could have been a bit clearer. I think the way to decide buy/sell/hold on BHP and on the mining sector as a whole is to look past the very confusing top down strategic message to the nitty gritty of the key commodities of iron ore and copper. (BHP Billiton is a member of my long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio http://jubakpicks.com/jubak-picks-50/ )

Let’s start with the murky top-down stuff first, okay?

CEO Marius Kloppers said the company would increase its dividend for the first half of 2011 to 46 cents (U.S.) from 42 cents. I’m not clear what that is a sign of since the increase barely keeps pace with appreciation in the Australian dollar—for Australian shareholders, in other words, the increase is no increase at all.

Kloppers also announced an expansion of the company’s current $4.2 billion share buy-back to $10 billion. That amounts to about 4% of the company’s outstanding shares.

And he said that the company wasn’t actively looking at any acquisitions right now although the company has plenty of cash and cash flow: BHP Billiton reported six month profits of $10.7 billion on February 16.

So was BHP Billiton saying that it thinks mining stocks are expensive now, so no acquisitions? Hard to tell because Kloppers may be feeling a bit burned on the acquisition front after a failed bid for Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) in 2010.

And are the increases in the dividend and in the share buy-back plan a signal that the company thinks the commodities boom is getting near an end and it’s time to pull back on investments in its business? Read more

This week or next will see a bid from China for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), Canada’s Globe and Mail is reporting.

The newspaper’s sources say Beijing is now deciding which of the proposed bids from China’s state-owned companies it should back. Pending Chinese national holidays beginning on October 1 argue for a decision this week or next.

Among the Chinese companies interested in topping the $38.6 billion bid by Australia’s BHP Billiton (BHP) for the Canadian fertilizer company are, according to the Globe and Mail, the state-owned chemical group Sinochem, which has proposed paying as much as $60 billion, and China Blue Chemical, a division of China National Offshore Oil Corp.

A Chinese bid has become more likely in recent weeks, in my opinion, as news reports have confirmed China’s swing this year to a corn importer from previous self-sufficiency in corn, and as the price of corn has climbed to $5 a bushel on forecasts of a slightly smaller harvest in the United States. Read more

Iron ore prices retreat by 12% and iron ore mining stocks say, So what?, and move higher

It’s hard to imagine this happening with any other “product.”

The price of the product drops 12% for the next quarter.

And the stock market essentially shrugs it off. On a bad day for the market, August 30, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index drops by 1.47%, the shares of the world’s biggest producer of this product fall by 1.29%. Shares of the second largest producer fall by 2.49%, it’s true, but that’s not unexpected since the beta of that stock (the measure of the stock’s volatility in comparison to the entire stock market) says that these shares are on average two-thirds more volatile that the stock market as a whole. (The drop in the shares is almost exactly what beta projects.)

And on a good day for the market, September 1, when the S&P 500 jumps by 3%, shares of the largest producer rocket upward by 5.5% and shares of No. 2 go up 6.1%

Guess when it comes to iron ore—and that’s the “product” in question—investors just don’t expect any price drop to last for very long.

Even after the drop iron ore prices would be120% higher than they were a year ago. So this disappointment would leave these miners still incredibly profitable. Read more

Update BHP Billiton

 On January 20 BHP Billiton (BHP) announced that second-quarter iron ore output rose 11% to a new record on heavy demand from China. The company also reported increased production of petroleum, zinc, diamonds, and nickel. Production of coking coal, uranium, and copper declined.

 Continuing the shift in how prices are set on the global iron ore market, BHP Billiton said that 46% of its iron ore shipments from Western Australia were sold at market rates. Read more