Hello 3,800 my old friend, the S&P 500 has come to visit with you again–we still don’t have a trend yet
At the moment 3,800 on the Standard & Poor’s 500 is the place the market wants to be. Tumble toward 3,600 and the June low, and the market rallies as it did on Monday. Threaten to dip much below that 3,800 level as the market did today and stocks move back...
Micron’s revenue warning is shot across the bow of chip equipment makers
Yesterday, September 29, after the close of trading DRAM chipmaker Micron Technology (MU) reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $1.35 a share and adjusted earnings of $1.45 a share. That was down from $2.42 a share in adjusted earnings in the fiscal fourth...
Sticky inflation in today’s PCE report rests short-term market trend on October 13 CPI inflation numbers
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose in August. The index climbed 0.3% from July. Year over year the PCE is up 6.2%. Excluding food and energy, the core PC index rose 0.6% in August from July and at...
It’s deja vu all over again: Why the UK crisis is so scary
Yesterday, September 28, for a day, global stocks and bonds rallied after the Bank of England stepped in and said it was setting aside £65bn ($72 billion) to buy bonds over the next 13 working days. (It’s a limited-time offer that expires on October 14.) Today,...
September is the cruelest month–again?
With all due apologies to T.S. Eliot, when it comes to stocks, April isn’t the cruelest month. That title goes, hands down, to September. Which my calendar says starts tomorrow. September is, on average, the worst-performing month for stocks. From 1950 through...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Investing to beat the coming recession
My one-hundred-and-sixtieth YouTube video “Investing to beat the coming recession” went up today. I’m back, after a week’s hiatus. This week I’m sharing some thoughts about the market trials and tribulations of Snap (SNAP) and Alphabet...
It’s a war of two narratives–today “recession” narrative replaces “rate cut” narrative and stocks fall heavily
Yesterday, the stock market was up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 gaining 1.46% on the day and the NASDAQ Composite up 2.49%. Listening to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement after the June 15 meeting of its Open Market Committee, Wall Street chose...
Snap shocks market, plunges 43%, closes below 2017 IPO price
Snap (SNAP), the online company best known for its SnapChat platform, closed down 43.08% today, May 24. On April 21 when the company released its first quarter earnings report, the company had forecast second quarter revenue growth of 20% to 25%. That was already...
We’re a long way from a capitulation
Looking for the bottom on this plunge or bear market (true bear in the NASDAQ and near bear market in the Standard & Poor’s 500)? Despite the pain we’re all feeling in our portfolios, I think we’ve got a way to go. I base that conclusion on both...
Don’t forget those Bear Trap Rallies
Very timely research out of Bank of America yesterday warning that Bear Trap Rallies of 10% or more are very common during the run of a Bear market. (These rallies are dubbed Bear Traps because the gains in stocks encourage investors and traders to buy at higher...
The limits of stock market history: it’s not a great guide right now
I’m a big fan of history. I study it. I love reading it. I find the patterns of the past fascinating. Both in themselves and for what they tell us about our own time and the likely future. But…I just don’t think stock market history is a very...
What do you do when the market is insane and you’re not?
In the short run rationality is not an especially adaptive trait for an investor. Remember that. Take today’s market for example. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) delivered very sobering news on how the coronavirus and the coronavirus shutdown of big...
Market rallies big this morning on lower new infection rates in Italy, Spain
A rally in European stocks that took the  STOXX 600 index up 3% in morning trading has extended to New York. At noon New York Time today, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 5.65% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 5.66%. The NASDAQ Composite had...
Selling Emerson Electric out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio today
I’m using today’s bounce to sell Emerson Electric (EMR) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio today. The shares are up 3.54% today. I think Emerson Electric is a stock that I’d like to own for the long-term if the short-term didn’t look so negative...
Sellers batten down the hatches today ahead of tomorrow’s report on new claims for unemployment
Not much mystery to today’s selling. Investors and traders were trimming positions–or more–ahead of tomorrow’s report on initial claims for unemployment. Last week brought a record 3.28 million new claims for unemployment as the coronavirus and...
Bulls almost pull the S&P 500 even today, but then late selling kicks in
For a while it looked like bullish investors and traders would manage to pull the market even into the close. That would have been quite a positive feat after a huge 3-ay rally and going into a weekend. At 3:27 p.m.New York time today the Standard & Poor’s...
This is the best 3-day rally since–ready for it–1931
Okay, you knew the punchline was coming. After dropping 11.9% in 1929 as the Crash and Great Depression got rolling, the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 28.5% in 1930. And then, in 1931, it staged that big short-term rally that we’ve just surpassed. After...
Selling ServiceMaster out of my 50 Stocks Portfolio
I wish I hadn’t bought ServiceMaster Global Holdings (SERV) in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio back on December 17. But I did. It was a bargain then. It’s not now. And now I think it’s time to cut my losses after some relatively minor gains on March...
Selling First Quantum Minerals today in bear market rally
I still like my long-term thesis for copper miner First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF)–that copper prices will rise with a pick up in global economic growth and that when growth resumes the world will be looking at a shortage of copper. First Quantum has a lot of new...
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news in this bear market
As I write this at 1:20 p.m. New York time on Wednesday, March 25, the Senate is debating the $2 billion (or is it even more now?) coronavirus rescue bill. The consensus is that the chamber will vote and pass the bill sometime this afternoon and then send it to the...
Is this the first “bottoming” in the coronavirus bear?
Bear markets typically require multiple bottoms–with rallies often of considerable dimension in between–before they set a final bottom. It wouldn’t be surprising, for example, to see a 30% drop with signs of a bottom followed by even a 10% to 20%...
In a bear market panic, it’s really, really hard to figure which way stocks will jump on any particular day.
Yesterday, Â I sold my Put options on Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) with gains of around 100% in each since I added them to my Volatility Portfolio (on my subscription JugglingwithKnives.com and JubakAM.com sites) on March 10. I’d bought those Puts in order to...
Stocks fall again as WHO declares coronavirus pandemic, White House fails to deliver stimulus plan–no place to hide outside of Treasuries and the yen
As of 1:45 p.m. in New York the Standard & Poor’s 500 is down 4.62% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 5.13%. The NASDAQ Composite is lower by 4.40% and the Russell 2000 small cap index, with its heavy load of smaller U.S. oil producers, has lost...
Dow Industrials sink into bear market territory at close; S&P 500 touches bear before closing down 19%; more debt worries
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in bear market territory, down 20% from its February high. The Standard & Poor’s 500 touched bear territory during the day before closing down 19% from its February high. (A bear market is usually defined as a...
Selling Nvidia today out of Jubak Picks Portfolio on belief that the downturn isn’t done
I’m taking advantage of the “Hope the White House has a plan” rally today to sell Nvidia (NVDA) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio. Nvidia shares are up 3.05% as of 2:35 p.m. today, March 10, for a gain of $7.44 a share to $252.92. The shares are up...
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries #4: Consumer sentiment is becoming more negative
Most of the recent sentiment surveys show the same result: While sentiment about current conditions–AKA the present–remains strong, sentiment about conditions 6 to 12 months out is sliding in a pessimistic direction. The recent Bloomberg Consumer Comfort...
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries #3: Money flows that look like a bounce and not like a rally
Rallies share one very important pattern. In a rally more investors and traders want to jump in as prices rise. They’re convinced that rising prices mean that prices will climb even more in the future and so they buy, driving prices higher. Bounces follow a...
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries #2: Financials to tech earnings transition
The big banks have delivered to start off earnings season. And the financial sector has been a key source of strength for the uptrend in stocks since January 3. Over the last month, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is up 5.4% as of the close on January 17....
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries: #1 Hong Kong overnight
Did you see what happened in Hong Kong overnight? The major Hong Kong Index, the Hang Seng was down slightly, dropping 0.54% on the session. But a smaller group of stocks in the Hong Kong market got slaughtered. Jiayuan International Group, Sunshine 100 China Holdings...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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