Apple’s iPhone to go to T-Mobile and not Verizon in 2010

When AT&T’s (T) exclusive deal expires in 2010, Apple’s (AAPL)  iPhone is most likely to find a second home with T-Mobile and not Verizon (VRZN). That’s the conclusion of a note published by analyst Doug Reid of Thomas Weisel Partners and picked up and amplified by AppleInsider.

Here’s his logic.

Verizon vs. AT&T: The winner is the bravest cannibal

There are many ways to cannibalize a business.

For example, there’s simple cannibalism where a company introduces a new product that eats the old. The hope here is that the new product will grow fast enough and carry high enough profit margins to make up for the demise of all revenue from the old line.

And there’s delayed cannibalism where a company introduces a new product that still eats the old. But the hope here is that the new product will replace enough of the revenue from the cannibalized line that the company can make a transition to a totally different product.

No company faces cannibalism happily. It’s eat your old business or die.

And that’s exactly the situation facing AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) right now.