For August the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, showed an increase in core inflation of just 0.1%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected an increase of 0.2% for the month. Year over year the core PCE Price Index is up 1.3%, well short of the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2%.
Despite this news, financial markets today remain convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 25 basis points at its December 13 meeting as promised.
The CME Fed Watch calculation of the odds of a December interest rate increase, calculated from prices in the Fed Funds Futures market, stood at 76.47% today. That’s just a tad lower than the 77.5% of yesterday and significantly above the 32.5% odds back on August 29.