In the current stock market Enbridge (ENB) is neither fish nor fowl. And since the stock has hit my December 2009 target price of $38 a share, I’m going to sell it out of Jubak’s Picks.
Here’s what I mean by that cryptic neither fish nor fowl characterization.
I bought Enbridge for the Picks portfolio back in December 2007 because I thought its 3.6% yield would make the stock price very stable in a tough stock market and that investors looking for safety would bid up the price of these shares. I got half of what I wished for. The stock was very stable,but I didn’t get any gain in stock price. Enbridge trades today for roughly the same price I paid for it on December 18, 2007.
I am looking at a 6.3% return from the dividends that I collected during the 21 months that I owned the stock. Not terrible but I had hoped for a higher total return package. (By the way, for all those who have asked when I’ll put the dividend portfolio that I ran at MSN Money back up, the answer is Next week. Finally.)
Going forward,though, Enbridge doesn’t have the revenue and earnings recovery story to produce an attractive price gain in a market that is set, over the next eight to 12 months anyway, to believe in and reward recovery. (For my take on the near-term and intermediate term, see my post http://jubakpicks.com/2009/09/30/those-individual-investors-who-left-the-stock-market-in-2008-arent-back-yet-which-will-make-any-near-term-dip-short-and-shallow/ With a yield of 3.6% Enbridge doesn’t pay enough of a dividend to make up for its relatively lackluster prospects for price appreciation.
I think you can find better recovery stories that will earn you a bigger capital gain over the next eight months to a year and I think you can find better yield stories too. (Dividend yield investors should take a look at the Enbridge master limited partnership Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) with its 8.8% yield.)
I’m selling Enbridge out of Jubak’s Picks with a return of 6.3% since I added it to the portfolio. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Enbridge Energy Partners in my personal portfolio.)