Here’s what I’ve been writing about lately on my two paid sites JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com.
I’ve been watching the long LEAPS options on Facebook (FB) since back in January. On March 30 I finally added the January 18, 2018 calls with a strike price of $150 to my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription sites JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com. In my posts on these options I’ve argued that long-dated options are a good way to play the volatility of a technology stock such as Facebook and to capture the long-term upward trend in the stock without having to get the timing of the option exactly right. My post on March 30 explains why I think this is a good price at which to buy these call options.
I’ve been watching volatility in this market–or more precisely the lack of volatility–even longer. Volatility measured by the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has been stuck, surprisingly, near historical lows for the index. On March 29, for example, the VIX closed at 11.49. The long-term average on the index from 1990 to October 2008 was 19.04. I think there are reasons for this low level on the VIX–the recent correlation in asset classes, for example, and the rise of ETFs that let a trader short a wide variety of asset classes has made the VIX and the S&P 500 less indispensable as a way to hedge risk–but I think that given the economic, monetary, and geopolitical challenges for the next six months or more, I think volatility as measured by the VIX will come back. (And when it does, you should trade the VIX.) The piece I posted today looks at recent evidence of an emerging upward trend in the VIX in terms of higher highs and higher lows. I think this post is important enough for all my readers that I’ve made it a free Post of the Month on my JugglingWithKnives.com site. (So you can read it without having to pay me anything. Free. No credit card required. Although if you decide you want to subscribe, I certainly won’t chase you away with a big stick. I hope, though, that you’ll consider subscribing if you find this kind of content valuable.)
Anyway that’s what I’m working on at my subscription sites, JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com. In the next day or two I’ll update the trend–or lack thereof–on the VIX on both these subscription sites.
I hope there’s some value to you in passing on the direction of my thinking about the market on those sites.
If you decide that you’d like more of my thoughts on the market in my JugglingWithKnives.com or JubakAM.com posts, I’m hoping that you’ll subscribe to my sites for either $79 or $199.