Not surprisingly haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen are up today. So are volatility measures such as the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX.)
Surprisingly, the rush to safety hasn’t been as strong as you might expect after a day when U.S.President Donald Trump threatened North Korea with fire and fury and that country responded by threatening to nuke Guam.
As of 11 a.m. New York time this morning gold was up 1.1% to $1274.37 an ounce; the Japanese yen had climbed 0.6% to 109.70 against the U.S. dollar, and the 10-year Treasury had gained in price, driving the yield down to 2.22%. On the other side of the trade, risky assets such as the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) were down with emerging markets falling 0.9%. The U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 was off 0.21% and the NASDAQ Composite was lower by 0.48%. (You got slightly more upside from this move to haven assets this morning from gold mining stocks than from gold itself. The VanEck Vector Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ) was up 1.32% as of 11 a.m.)
Volatility picked up again today with the VIX moving 5.75% higher to 11.59.
Last night on my paid JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com sites I suggested watching the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLF) to see if we’re looking at an orderly pull back after a strong rally or a global sell off on the North Korea news. This morning the Financial ETF was down just 0.24% as of 11 a.m. in New York. Which argues that so far this is is an orderly pull back after a strong rally.