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Trump talks down dollar–and U.S. stocks

Trump talks down dollar–and U.S. stocks

The U.S. dollar fell today after President-elect Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. currency was too high–in part because China holds down the price of the yuan. On the comments the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 1.1% as of noon New...
China’s export engine falters again

China’s export engine falters again

Calculated in yuan, China’s exports rose a tepid year-over-year 0.6% in December. Unfortunately, China’s export companies don’t pay for raw materials such as oil and copper or for subassemblies from Malaysia or Indonesia in yuan but in most cases in...
Mixed fallout from higher revision to U.S. GDP growth

Mixed fallout from higher revision to U.S. GDP growth

The news that U.S. economic growth in the third quarter had been revised upward to 3.5% from an earlier 3.2% has been a mixed blessing for the financial markets. Higher growth has helped stocks resume their post-election rally. But it hasn’t helped the bond...
Sales growth without profits for the holidays?

Sales growth without profits for the holidays?

Solid growth in retail sales for the November and December holiday shopping season. Retail profits not so much. For November, advance estimates show retail and food services sales climbing 3.7% from November 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. For December,...
Pre-holiday move to safety starts a little early

Pre-holiday move to safety starts a little early

With trading volumes already starting to slip–trading in Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks was running about 25% below its average for this time of day at noon today–traders and investors are locking in some gains and seeking safety for the week...
Will it be two or three interest rate increases in 2017?

Will it be two or three interest rate increases in 2017?

At its December 14 meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled that it was thinking about three more interest rate increases in 2017 instead of two. (The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 14. That was the Fed’s first interest rate increase in...
Did the Trump-China trade war heat up overnight?

Did the Trump-China trade war heat up overnight?

Maybe it’s just coincidence. Random noise. Sound and fury signifying nothing. I hope so. But I fear not. Yesterday the director of Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission’s price supervision bureau told the state-run China Daily that its...
So much for the post-Trump-victory drug stock rally

So much for the post-Trump-victory drug stock rally

“I’m going to bring down drug prices. I don’t like what’s happened with drug prices,” President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview with Time posted on the magazine’s website today. So much, the stock market has concluded today, for the idea that a President...