The bottom isn’t in yet for fertilizer sales. On June 25, the big dog in the industry, Potash of Saskatchewan (POT), reduced its guidance for the second quarter of 2009 because customers around the world continue to defer purchases and prices continue to slip. Yara International’s (YARIY) exposure to the Brazilian market damps the effects of this trend on the company but certainly Yara can’t avoid the short-term effects completely. I still expect that fertilizer sales will turn in the second half of 2009 as credit and export markets return to something that I’d call “the new normal.” As of July 3 I’m keeping my target price at $38 a share by December 2009. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Yara International in my personal portfolio.)
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