Enbridge (ENB) is really two stories. There’s the company that owns the conventional oil and gas pipeline network that gathers natural gas from the Gulf of Mexico and then distributes it across the United States. And there’s the company that has built one of the leading pipeline networks to transport oil from Alberta’s oil sands to the United States and Canada, and especially to the refineries of the Gulf Coast that have the technology to handle the extremely heavy oil produced from Alberta’s sands. That network, though, constitutes a huge bet on the future development of these oil sands in the face of rising costs and increasing opposition on environmental groups. The company’s spending program has been so heavy that it has generated negative free cash flow in three of the past seven years. As of July 1, I’m cutting my target price for shares of Enbridge to $38 a share by December 2009.
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