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Wells Fargo is relatively upbeat about mortgages and margins in today’s post-earnings conference call

posted on July 12, 2013 at 2:55 pm
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It was never about last quarter’s earnings. So while it was swell that Wells Fargo (WFC) beat Wall Street earnings estimates for the second quarter by 5 cents (at 98 cents a share) in results reported after the close yesterday, July 11, the real good news came in today’s relatively upbeat conference call in remarks about next quarter and the remainder of 2013.

The bank, a bellwether for the mortgage and housing sectors, said that looking forward it remained optimistic on the economy. Higher interest rates would indeed cut into mortgage originations and mortgage lending volumes would be down in the third quarter—directionally that is what investors expected to hear—but the deterioration described by the company didn’t sound too scary. Mortgage originations in the third quarter would decline, the bank guessed, to the vicinity of $100 billion versus $112 billion in the second quarter. (The $112 billion for the second quarter was up from $109 billion in the first quarter of 2013.)

Other metrics that had worried Wall Street going into the earnings report and the conference call got the same combo treatment of downward trend but not at a scary pace. For example, the bank said that net interest margins would probably be under pressure in the third quarter but that over a longer period it would be able to grow net interest income. (Net interest margins fell 2 basis points to 3.46% in the second quarter.) Absent deterioration in the U.S. economy, Wells Fargo said, it would be able to continue to release reserves against bad loans (adding to the bottom line in the process.) In the second quarter provision for credit losses fell by $306 million and the quarter included a $35 million release from reserves. (When a bank adds to its loan loss reserves, it comes out of earnings. When it releases money from its loan loss reserves that flows through to earnings.)

This isn’t to say that everything was hunky dory in the quarter to June 30. Growth in commercial loans slowed to just 1.7% from the first quarter of 2013 and the runoff in the home equity loan portfolio continued with a drop of 3.4%. One worry that the quarter didn’t put to bed: The margins on gain on sale for mortgages fell 35 basis points. (A bank books a gain on sale when it sells a mortgage asset at a profit to investors. Selling mortgages that a bank has originated is essential to free up capital for new mortgage lending.) Wells Fargo did say in the conference call that it expected gain on sale margins to fell from current levels in the second half of 2013.

In short, nothing here to suggest a speedy run to the exits, but it is clear that a environment of rising rates will be tough on bank profits.

Shares of Wells Fargo were up 2.1% as of 2 p.m. New York time today. Shares of homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and Pulte Group (PHM) were down 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. When in 2010 I started the mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund http://jubakfund.com/ , I liquidated all my individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund did not own shares of any stock mentioned in this post as of the end of March. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of March see the fund’s portfolio at http://jubakfund.com/about-the-fund/holdings/


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One comment

  • nkaufman on 12 July 2013

    Hello Jim,

    Thank you for responding to my initial query on PCP and TM.

    PCP – With the recent Boeing incident, it does seem a bit risky to stick with PCP. Having bought at $185, I do think some profit taking might be in order and purchase it again once the dust settles down on Boeing. I do not see how PCP can move higher with this Boeing cloud hovering over it when the company’s performance is so much dependent on Boeing.

    TM – Even if yen does not reach 110 but reaches 105, I stil think that TM by having projections at much lower rates should benefit further. But am thinking of selling some (bought at 103) and take some profit off the table.

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