Brazil is winning its inflation battle faster than expected
Surprise!
Brazil’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil, raised its benchmark Selic interest rate by only 0.5 percentage points yesterday to 10.75%. Expectations had been for a 0.75 point increase.
The consensus is that the smaller than expected increase in rates is a signal from the bank that the bank will stop raising interest rates earlier than expected and short of the 12% rate previously forecast.
The surprise is a result of a surprisingly fast drop in Brazil’s inflation rate in response to higher domestic interest rates—and to slower growth in the European economies as a result of the euro debt crisis. In the 30 days that ended in mid-July consumer prices fell to 0.09%. The drop small as it was, was the first drop in inflation in four years.
Investors who have been waiting for an end to Brazil’s round of interest rate increases have, as of 3 p.m. ET, bid Brazil’s Bovespa stock index to its biggest gain in six weeks.
I’d agree that the bank’s 0.5 percentage points rate increase is a signal that the Banco Central intends to end rate increases sooner rather than late. If you’ve been waiting to buy Brazilian bonds until the bank was done, I think it’s now reasonably safe to get into the water. (Buying Brazilian bonds though, isn’t exactly easy, if you aren’t a resident of Brazil. As soon as I figure out how and have some method and agent to recommend I’ll write a new post.)
The signal also removes some risk from Brazilian stocks. I’m not in a rush to buy because Brazil’s stock market is currently closely correlated with China’s stock market and China’s market is still at sixes and sevens over the direction of government monetary policy. A few more weeks could resolve the Chinese quandary. Having waiting this long, I’m willing to wait a little longer.
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Jim:
What’s your opinion on today’s rally? Shall we be happy ever after or another down day ahead? Is this just a bounce or we finally get over the correction?
Jim:
Thanks for the advice on buying Brazil and China stocks. I wanted to know “Is it time yet”? You answered it right there.
I am waiting for your buy signal on emerging market.
Thanks Jim for the post. You are thorough and timely!
Hi Jim,
I managed to buy a real-denominated (“real” as in the Brazilian currency) bond with a 10% coupon yielding 9.15% to maturity a few weeks ago through TD Waterhouse, a Canadian discount broker.
I only bought 10K (real) face value, so it really wasn’t very much. I was also able to put in it in my tax-free retirement account.
The bond was not issued by the gvt of Brazil but rather by Kommunalbanken of Norway, wholly owned by the kingdom of Norway. (Not much credit risk there.)
The only thing I have to deal with with is currency risk.
Forgot to mention, KommunalBanken is rated AAA by S&P. You can’t beat that!
Can someone recommend a good ETF for buying into the Brazilian stock market?
On a side note, I returned from a trip to India recently. The Indian economy is booming and there has been tremendous development. The biggest risks for India are geopolitical (Islamic terror, Maoist insurgency) and internal corruption, but the economy keeps chugging forward nevertheless. People need to go about their lives, and everyone seemed to be optimistic in general. Infrastructure is lacking, but the private sector is starting to address that.
I ate at a Dominos while in India, and it was packed. There were quite a few familes with young children there. (Read: future repeat customers). The pizza had been changed to suit the Indian palate. Apart from that, I did not see very much of foreign brands besides computers and phones.
There were lots of rolling blackouts. On my flight back, I picked up the WSJ and funny enough – there was an article about Reliance Power and Tata Power seeking to meet the demand for electricity.
My emerging markets preference #1 Brazil. China and India are tied after Brazil. Russia is ruled out because of rule of law issues – I don’t want to risk my money there.
CallOfDutyFan,
Jim has recommended BRF in the past.
I would like to see some suggestions on infrastructure plays for India. Any ideas?
Jim – Thanks for the update on Brazil. I’ll stay tuned to your ongoing commentary on emerging markets and an all-clear, green light to invest … and some specific investing ideas too, if you would. Thanks.
Ed,
What is your take on the earnings season so far? Looks like companies are reporting strong earnings and guidance. Do you expect a pullback after earning season is over and into the fall?
CallOfDutyFan, I was professionally involved with India in the 1970s. At that time India was considered as the up and coming nation, with of course a few problems to solve: “(Islamic terror, Maoist insurgency) and internal corruption”, nothing changed!
java12jack,
Actually, I am starting to become rather bullish, although selectively so, and only for the rest of this year. Generally speaking, the emerging markets are looking good, and some large cap American stocks look good. Avoid Europe (notice how high the euro has gone up?). Avoid American small caps, and be selective with the American mid caps.
Within the next month, I will be moving towards an approximate portfolio balance of 50% emerging markets, 20% gold/cash mix, with the remaining 30% in American stocks. In the emerging markets, I’ll be weighted more heavily towards China, with the rest in Brazil and Latin America (AMX will be my exposure there, assuming it doesn’t hit my target price before then), possibly with LYSDY (a bit of Australia/rare earth metals exposure).
elnormo:
Brazil Infrastructure Index Fund (NYSEArca: BRXX – News), an ETF focusing on the country’s rapidly-developing infrastructure
allstes321:
Thanks for mentioning BRXX and will check it. That’s why I think this site is great and I have always said more is better, as long as it’s civil.
Ed:
MSN had article yesterday saying Mid cap will do well in 2nd half. The only European stock that I like is SI, but it’s too expensive for me.
Off topic.
georic:
Did you say India was considered an up and coming nation even in the 1970′s and still nothing changed? That’s exactly what I think. I posted very extensively several weeks ago on this site. I did not mention then that I started to pay attention to India in early 1990′s triggered by some westerner’s saying then that India “has world’s largest mid-class”. I immediately had different feeling about it and I checked India. I found out that the India’s “mid-class” is by India’s standard which you know what it means. I studied India even more about two years ago because, as you know, someone had put India in the league of China and Brazil in the name of BRIC. This time I studied even more, conclusion is same.
India is like a marathon runner with two grinding stones chained to his ankles. One is its already huge and still fast expanding population. Another is the thousand years old unchangeable tradition. (Remember the NYT article about India’s honor killings and caste system I posted here just few days ago?). Despite such heavy burden, this marathon runner keeps going. He MAY eventually get to the finish line, but none knows when. Hundred years or another thousand year later? Who knows! Meanwhile spectators of this marathon race impressed by the runner with two grinding stones and could not help to send him applause. (How could you not applause such courage?) and the runner enjoys the applause. (It’s quite obvious in the last several years that India got a lot of applause and enjoyed it.) However, while he enjoys the applause, other runners quickly PASSED him and left him in dust! First, China. Then Brazil. Next will be S. Africa or Indonesia or Turkey or Malaysia or Chile or even Kazakhstan.
I posted a list of my favored emerging countries here few weeks ago. Noticed that India was not on that list. Because all countries on that list have solvable problems no matter how hard it may be. India’s problems are unsolvable. You can not get rid of the POPULATION and that population is literately stacking on each other! And it’s still multiplying. A young and growing population usually is good for a country’s development, as Jim pointed before. However there is tipping point from which the ever expanding population becomes a huge burden. India passed that tipping point long time ago. That explains why India does not seem changed a lot after all these years being called an “up and coming country”. Because, as I said before, the fast expanding population quickly OFFSETS any growth India may have. Then, there is TRADITION which is no less a burden. Caste has been outlawed about 60 years ago, but it’s live and well and deeply rooted in the society. According to the NYT article, honor killings and burning brides who have no or few money happen every day. Listen to the family which is accused of honor killing because their daughter engaged to a lower caste saying. “The constitution has been around only 60 years, but the tradition has been around thousand years. We got to follow the TRADITION!” (What a wisdom!) The same NYT article further said that India’s newspapers are full of ad placed by PARENTS seeking potential grooms or brides for their children with desired caste and even professions stated! The article further said that despite the constitution and supreme court demands, India’s politicians are very hesitated to enforce it because of fears of loosing votes. Democracy at work.
India actually has a third grinding stone which is chained to its neck. The nuttiness. Muslim terror and Maoists are just part of it. India’ own nuttiness which is very much overlooked by westerners. Westerners forgot that India fought three wars with Pakistan in the past 60 years! That’s quite a records. How many countries fought so many wars in so short time? One of the war cut Pakistan into two pieces. (Birth of Bangladesh.) That’s very aggressive. The two countries are locked in permanent fight. Even less people know that India “swallowed” a small, but independent Himalayan kingdom named Sikkim not long time ago in 1975. (BTW, the king’s wife is a an American.) After that another small but independent Himalayan Kingdom named Bhutan got so scared and surrendered its defense to India. It’s my strong belief that if China was weaker than India, India would have invaded China long time ago and would have done so many times just like it did to Pakistan. Lucky China. It had always been stronger than India even at its worst time. China defeated India in the 1962 border war when China was at its most difficult time since the Communist took over. It’s almost 50 years since that war. Most countries in similar situation would have moved on, but not India. (Think Russia and many other countries in similar situations.)
During the first half of 2008, I read India’s English news sites very regularly and extensively for many months. I detected two psychic among India’s elites. One is an extreme ambition about India’s role in the world to the point of delusion. Some Indian are calling themselves “world super power” and even thinking themselves exercising such power! Another is extremely deep self-insecurity to the point of paranoid. India seems in a permanent war preparation mode with China! That’s why I call it nut.
Why is it important to know this nuttiness? Very simple. (1) Business risk. Whenever I hear western companies went to India (and think India is the next China), I think nuts. Don’t you know that only few years ago in late 1990‘s India was in a nuclear standoff with Pakistan? (Needless to say all other problems that India has.) Few company would put their factories in Pakistan, why would you do it in India? India’s own crown jewel company Tata Motor had hard time just to open one. The best thing that western companies can do in India it selling consumer goods including Pizzas as CALLOFDUTY posted about his recent trip to India. (2) Geopolitical risk. America’s nuclear cooperation with India is adding fuel to an already very large fuel tank in that part of the world. We all know these days that even a small country like Greece could effect the whole planet, imagine a conflict between two nuclear armed countries and each has a super power behind it. Do we want that to the world and to ourselves? Think about this. Anything that America gives to India WILL BE and MUST BE matched by Pakistan. (If Pakistan can not afford it, China would give it.) None would let the other side having the upper hand! It’s a huge mistake for America to pop up India’s nuclear capacity or any other military capacity. That part of the world is just too volatile.
YX: I often read your’s and Ed’s comments. Quite insightful. But some of the stuff regarding India; you have got it so wrong. Let me just clarify a little bit so you can atleast keep your prejudices away for some topics about this country, India.
1) In the last 1000 or so years India has not attacked a single country.
2) India actually helped Bangladesh to stay away from Pakistan. India actually helped Bangladesh to build its own country. It is still doing it now. If you look at the map. Pakistan and Bangladesh are located far apart and in between there is India. Strategically,economically, politically it would have been a nightmare for Pakistan and Bangaldesh to work together as one country anyways, that’s my viewpoint.
3) Following is a list of people who have attacked, looted, raped, murdered people in India…Moguls (the muslims kings in old days) for almost 400+ years, then came British, Spaniards, Dutch, Potugese for almost 300+ years. Only one small group of people (the parsis as they call them in India) has come to India and actually helped India silently without creating any oppression, dominance or even recognition. The Tata group is Parsi or Farsi. The parsis came from Persia and are the followers of Zarthushtra (Zorastrians) now-a-days. I have a deep respect for this people who helped India.
4) The last 3 wars in 60 years fought with Pakistan were started by Pakistan. India was just defending its boundary. Pakistan has been sending militants in Kashmir, India (sep 2008 massacre by Ajmal Kasab) for god knows since when………
5) China has been encroaching the land of India slowly for a long time. You don’t have any idea. Look at Tibet. It has trying to fight it off for so long. It has even accepted that they are part of China but only want a autonomous region. Other thing about China is you don’t know that it betrayed India in WWII and took away some of its land.
6) About USA….it has used nuclear weapons, it has used agen orange (vietnam) and it is funny that it is policing other countries…It is coontinously on wars and establishing military bases wherever and whenever possible (no wonder, otherwise who would buy and use weapons produced).Look up internet and find some quotes by people like Einstien and Max Muller, etc. what they have to say about India. Instead of just bashing without even thinking what India is about. Humanity as such is edging towards a global suicide. All countries are preparing for a war in someway or the other.
I agree with you on all the 3 grinding stones India is running the marathon with. And it aches me that with such a huge potential the country has; it has done nothing and stays wretched and poor.
But let me tell you this not a single other country in the whole world has produced the beauty of the religion that India has. It has produced a Krishna, A Buddha, A Mahavir, A Kabir, A Farid, A Dadu, A Meera, A Nanak and the list goes on and on. Even Jesus cam to India in search of religion, even Pythagors came to India to learn something of the heart. So as Osho says, A mystic is India’s monopoly at least upto now it has been so. And a mystic is not simply a genius, he is an invitation to divine.
Back to about making money….one cannot eat money…you have heart too.
Saurin:
Your rebuttal reminds me of India’s spin on its slums in Mumbai. (India and Indians are indeed very good at spin. Another reason to say “delusion”.) Some of the slums in Mumbai are just plastic sheet and cardboard and Indian government calls it “informal housing”. (What a innovative term! BTW, this was reported when the Slumlord movie came out.)
You called the war with Pakistan a “help” for Bangladesh. Didn’t Hitler call his war “saving the human race”? (In fact he almost wiped out the human race.) The Japanese called its war in the far east as “defending Asia”. (From whom? In fact Japan was the only aggressor there back then.) It seems to me that both Japanese and Indian have appointed themselves “the defender” of others. That’s rather typical. Look back the whole world history. Every war aggressor had very “good” sometime even convincing “reasons”.
I am not bashing India or Indians (though I do have a problem with Indian government.) I have no gain from bashing India or Indians. Everyone with fair mind should find out from my India related posts that I am simply saying what I learned and what I believe. And I just simply counter the RUSH of praising India that has been going on in the western media and even in business world for some time. I believe it’s misguided and unrealistic. Every thing I said on this blog about India is just simply to prove it. That’s all.
The problem that I have with India government is that it spends billions and billions of dollar on its space and weapon programs while its people live in extreme poverty. In recent years, Indian government spent a lot of money on building roads and airport in northern India next to China border, so it’s troop can “move easily” in case of war with China while its poor farmers could not get their crops out of the field due to lack of transportation! One more reason to say “nuts”. Jim wrote couple of times before that one third of India’s crops spoiled in the field before farmers can get it to the market due to lack of transportation.
Your opinion is not a surprise. We have to agree the disagree.
Just in case anyone missed it, the following is MSN’s report of NYT article “India Fighting Surging Honor Killing”. It was only few days ago.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38178101/
georic:
Yx is a confirmed India basher, so take his comments for they are worth. What he said about wars with pakistan are lies Pakistan attaked India twice for kashmir & lost both times.
It is easy to understand frustration of pakistanis from India, and I have seen people of pakistand spreading lies against India on similar boards & these clowns think china is their friend….
If you want to make investment decision about a country on few murders in population of fes billion its your call BTW google gang wars in sao paulo.
Investment point of view I put india way ahead of both China & Brazil.
China is facing confirmed headwinds due to overheating real estate & whatever is the outcome real estate bubble will take stock market down with it. Only question is when & by how much chinese stocks will drop. Beijing is trying desperately to avoid repeat of USA like real estate crash..
Brazil is tied with china, if China grows brazil will grow, if chinese economy faces headwinds brazil faces the impact.
On the other hand India does not have these issues, if big money decide to move out of china, India is probably only realistic alternative.
As one of the few nuclear countries in the world, India deserves and must be closely scrutinized.
Voicing an opinion that a country is not a good investment risk and giving his very specific reasons why is not a bigoted attack. Yx backed up his thesis with his reasoning. Anyone is free to disagree, but it might be a more compelling argument if it was supported by reasoning. Other than china faces a real estate bubble, are there other reasons anyone thinks india presents a compelling investment profile?
In my view a caste system is not consistent with entrepreneurial capitalism (except maybe among the brahmins) but I’d love to hear someone argue why I am wrong.
southof8
Communism is also not consistent with entrepreneurial capitalism (except maybe among the members of communist party).
I am sure you can see the similarity
I agree and have voiced my deep skepticism of china many times. But why does that make india a good investment profile? My choices are not limited to china and india.
Nice views yall. Southof8 lmao on the brahmins comment.
I am Indian and I see the growth. Most of my investments are in Indian stocks and have got good returns. One of the best stock in the US – CTSH is Indian in actual sense. Just check its performance.
My posts are clearly listed above and anyone is free to judge it’s India-bashing or something else. In can understand that my posts won’t make Indians happy. So be it.
My poor India. Every time it’s someone else’ fault!
yx. you should read more history before bashing other countries.
india did not go to war with pakistan once.
bangladesh was rescued from pakistan regime when beloved USA was supporting pakistan.
how many countries fought wars in such a short time????? I can name one big one which is actually screwing up.
india spending on science when people are in trouble???? what about spending billions in NASA with so many internal problems, including medicare.
every country has their own problem. but the purpose of this board is to gain money from investing ideas.
there are good opportunities in all BRIC countries. lets share them and keep out other bashings somewhere…
yx – wow. Why the vitriol? I hate to say – you have come across as judgmental in quite a few of your postings, but this one is just over the top. Why the hatred?
I have some Bangladeshi friends, so I know from them first-hand that they view India as liberators. You can blame West Pakistani racism (they are lighter skinned than Bangladeshis) and Richard Nixon for the oppression. (Look up Wikipedia on the Blood telegram and Operation Searchlight).
Speaking of nuttiness and India invading Sikkim, how could you ignore China’s nuttiness in invading a much bigger country – Tibet. Or American nuttiness over the past 60 years – Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea, Grenada. Yet, you don’t seem to disagree that the USA and China are bad investment destinations.
Our country spends more on defense than several of our rivals combined. And what is our poverty rate here? Just drive around DC or Chicago south side or Detroit or St. Louis. China’s defense budget is much larger than India’s. How much better is the standard of living there as compared to the US?
China’s demographics could be as much of an issue as India’s. We don’t know yet.
I did follow the Tata Motors issue. It was caused by a politician from communist West Bengal who for whatever reason put up hindrances for their venture. Guess what Tata did? Moved to a state on the west coast. Not too different from Toyota skipping union-friendly Michigan to business-friendly Alabama.
Don’t rush to judge others, or you will be judged likewise.
@georic
Everyone I spoke to told me that 1991 was the changing point because of the financial crisis. That’s around the time Manmohan Singh was brought in to run the Finance Ministry. What I learned was that in the 1970s, India Gandhi actually nationalized the banks and curtailed the private sector. So I don’t know where you heard this whole thing about India being the next big thing in the 1970s.
Deng Xiaoping, on the other hand, started opening up China around 1978. So China has been in the right direction for a decade or so before several other countries which started moving towards capitalism after the events of 1989. (Mother Russia, all of eastern Europe, India and several other countries.)
@yx – there is no finish line. Human development is a continuum. Heck, even our country has so many problems to tackle that it is far from the so-called finish line.
In the end, freedom is not a gilded cage. I would rather live in a mediocre democracy than in a rich totalitarian country (Saudi Arabia?). The freedom to say what you want to say, to not worry about getting picked up in the middle of the night by the Gestapo, the opportunity to run in an election to change your country – or to vote for that matter – are far more important.
Guys calm down, we all know yx has anti India agenda just ignore him. lies & trumpeting doesn’t change the fact that India is great investment oppertunity.
Jim is duing great job in educating us about Investing, lets just keep this board for investment discussions…
My 2 cents,
My own two cents on India…
I am not comfortable with India. As deceptive as China can be, I can never seem to find out what I need to know about India in order to invest there. Sure, the basic info is out there, like it is on any country.
Here is the difference: China puts it’s info out there, and people have enough other info to throw darts at it. That is an openness, however ugly it may be. But India just seems to be a bit more closed off. I suspect this comes down to a cultural difference between the two countries. China knows how to play the capitalism game, and India hasn’t learned that yet.
To non-Indian readers who are interested in India:
Just little explanation and recap of all my India related posts, the two long one above and couple of others before.
Early this year, when BRIC or emerging market was the subject of the day, I posted “India is the most OVER RATED emerging market in the world” which drew no response as I expected. Later, few months ago when Jim wrote about India is lagging behind China and Brazil in fighting inflation, I posted the same opinion again. I further said that India is lagging behind China and Brazil on just about everything. To my surprise someone asked me to “back it up with numbers and figures”. So, I quickly posted a list of about 10 areas where I think India is behind China with ball part numbers that I remembered. Then, on Friday, georic posted here (see above) that he thinks India was considered an “up and coming country” even in the 1970’s, but few changed. That’s exactly what I think. So, I posted two more here as you can see above.
All these posts are actually conclusions that became obvious to me after I studied India. (I am not an expert, but one of my degrees is international study.) As I said, I started to pay attention to India in early 1990‘s because some westerner was saying back then that India “has world’s largest mid-class” and I wanted to find out myself. My conclusion was contrary. Then few years ago, some westerner came up with the term of BRIC which drew enormous international attention. I went back to study India again. I did very frequently and intensively during the first half year of 2008.
My conclusion is that India is not a good destination for direct investment except some limited outsourcing. Selling basic consumer goods would be the best way for foreign companies can do because of the size of the population. (Think about basic foods and drinks. Forget about NIKE or Coach.) All other type companies (manufacturers, retailers, etc.) are facing huge social and political obstacles in India. Even India’s own blue chip Tata Motor had trouble to open its new factory due to ferocious land dispute which is stemmed from over population. As I said in one of the above posts that you can not get rid of the population. Opening a factory or large store need to evict many, many people whom you have absolutely no other place to put. Because all other places are all completely full or even stacked. It becomes a fight of life or death! One S. Korea car maker got so stucked in its new factory mess that they had to call the president of SK to go over there. Then, there is political obstacle which has kept Wal-Mart and Carrefour off India for many years and to this day these retailers are still not let in. (I attached a link on that story few days ago. There are many, many such reports in financial media in the past few years.)
I also found that India is not a place for indirect investment or I shall say that I searched India’s stocks and bonds. So far haven’t found anything for my appetite. Jim probably wrote about two India companies before. One is bank, another is IT. The Indian bank just can not compare to other choices of banking stocks for my portfolio. In other words, there are many other better choices for emerging market banking exposure. So, only one India company left, the IT company which I would not mind to buy, not as a key holding, but as a supplement just giving some exposure to the soon-to-be world’s most populated nation. Unfortunately, that company has been consistently traded at very high PE over long time, I finally dropped it. (I learned my lessen about paying high PE before.) I particularly want to mention here that all India’s large well known companies are run by family dynasties, not a place that I want to get in.
I want to go back to the marathon runner with two (actually three) grinding stones. After all the readings about India, if you ask me to describe India in a simple and easy way (forget about numbers or figures), I’d describe it that way. Because that’s how India appears in front of my eyes. I am glad that you see India as an up and coming fresh prince riding on a white horse and ready to rescue your portfolio and I wish you luck. But I just don’t see it that way. As I said previously that even the good news often leave bad taste to people. For example, the AFP’s report (carried by Yahoo) on Delhi’s newly opened airport also described the old one which is totally depressing. Reuter’s recent report on Abbot’s purchase of India phama also told readers that India made drugs have quality problems with FDA. Needless to say the latest NY Time article on India’s honor killings is just painful!
India’s population is the easiest to understand among the three “grinding stones”. However, India’s thousand years old tradition may not be well understood. The NY Times recent article (link again below) is really a good reminder of that. (There are many reports on this subject too.) The third “grinding stone”, the nuttiness, is the most over looked by westerners, particular Americans who live in very short news cycle. “Nuttiness” is actually a mild term that I found to substitute the word of “radicalism”. The biggest failure of western media including financial media about India is that they failed to examine India’s not so accent aggressive past. My post of India’s war records are just trying to remind people of that. (There are many writings on that subjects too. You can read and judge it yourself.) Think about. Three wars with Pakistan, one war with China, officially “swallowed” one independent country, practically “swallowed” another independent country all in last 60 years. How many countries have that kind of records since WWII?
I used the words of “grinding stones” because they are too heavy, heavier than any problems that I saw in other countries. The reason I used the word of “chained” because they can not be get rid of.
During my readings, I also found that many India’s highly praised qualities are actually quite mysterious. From its “world’s largest democracy” to its “English speaking work force” to its education to “Bollywood’s global appeal”, on and on. I find it’s hard to substantiate. I’ll briefly address the democracy issue and leave the rest to you.
To make a long story short, India’s government officials may seem chosen through election, but candidates of elections are from parties whose power is passed along blood line. If you have any doubt about it, go to read the history of India’s most prominent political party the National Congress Party and its dynasty ruler the Gandhi family.
All I wrote are from what I read. If you don’t agree, go to search and read it yourself. I will be very glad if my posts can stir people to readings.
To Indian readers of this blog:
I have completely expected Indian readers (at least some, if not all) jumping out and shouting all bad words that they can find. No need to answer to that. But I do have one question for all Indians. Ever since your country tested the first atom bomb in late 1990’s, do you think India and the sub-continent became safer or even more volatile?
Anti-India agenda? Flattened by your elevation of my capacity. Bashing India? I let this NY Times article do my defense. The end.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38178101/
Ok Ed thank you for your comment about non-transparency showed by Indian companies that hinders one from investing in it. I am not even a beginner in investing so I cannot say for sure that it could be true. But I value your opinion highly in the matter of investing.
YX: I can understand there are a lot of problems in investing in India. One should not invest if they eye so many problems in financial areas.
But why are you so hell bent on bashing India upon thousand year old tradition. Just look at US. It was established by wiping off all the Native Indians and their establishments. Most of them right now leave in reserves, where they get free money and land. So they remain drunk and retarded. That’s what happens when you give people free money (communism, socialism, etc.)
US has used nuclear bomb and other lethal weapons in so many countries and it is selling so many weapons it is unimaginable. China, Japan, Russia, France and US are producing highest number of lethal weapons than any other country in the world. US is trying to spread peace by fighting wars. Vietnam, Iraq, Afganistan, etc. It has recently started heavy naval exercise with S. Korea just yesterday or day before. Do you think all these are intentions to leave peacefully. My point is that compared to India all these countries are much prone to attack. Still we invest and leave in these places. I leave in US but I don’t want my son to be reading about his country (US) being the aggressor. I say his country because I dont have a green card yet. If other countries don’t want democracy let them leave in stone ages and fend themselves. Forced democracy is a kind of dictatorship too. Anything forced is violent.
India has more number of muslims than Pakistan. They won’t find the freedom that India offers them in Pakistan. Abdul Kalam Azad a muslim minority in India was the best president India had. People are proud of him in India. He helped ISRO (Indian space research center) tremendously and he was a scientist himself. Manmohan Singh is a Sikh (a minority) and currently Prime Minister of India. Indira Gandhi (a woman and daughter of Nehru) became prime minister in India and remained of 17 years with a short gap of 2 to 4 years WHEN WOMEN IN USA DID NOT HAVE A RIGHT TO VOTE. Sure there is nepotism and lot of countries have that in politics. I am bringing out these facts so you know that you cannot look with a prejudice otherwise the study would be flawed. Sure honor killings are contemptful and cannot be allowed. But a country just doesn’t get built in a day or so.
I don’t hate US but I certainly love India. India would have made a very good neighbor to US. But dreams are dreams.
YX: you certainly have prejudice against India not only investment wise. That is for sure. I would like to discuss more. Your international study is tremendously flawed. You can call me on my cell phone: 404-512-9024. Whenever you get a chance in this life time.
I want to be a world citizen and not belong to any country. But I certainly know the beauty of US and beauty of India too. And their ugliness too. I won’t write peace at the end because peace comes only when one remains undisturbed in all situations without exception.
I am sorry Jim and others that you had to read this long comment. But facts have to produced in defense.
Thanks for ALL above comments.
As I said, I wrote what I read. They are all things that I read somewhere, often from very reputable places. I did not claim as an expert, but I do tend to keep my information from being washed away by fast news cycles and I connect the dots. Use the recent NYT article as an example (link in my above post) to show how I process things that I read, how I connect the dots and where I draw the lines.
What I learned from the article are not honor killing and caste which are not news to me, but village elders can control their villages’ votes or “blocks of vote”. (Read the article carefully.) Unless you tell me it’s a fiction, it does give me some idea on how India’s election works at some places. Did I draw conclusion that all India’s votes are fixed? Of course NOT. Behind everything that I wrote, there is a process of information analysis which keeps and stores creditable information and eliminates untrustworthy one. This NYT’s report on village elders’ control of votes is likely to be kept and stored in my head. Next time, when the same subject comes out, it’s very likely that I pull it out for comparison (Actually I have read couple of reports on that matter.) Another thing that I learned from the article is that how strongly some Indians stick to its tradition even if it’s things like caste. (Actually this is not the first time that I learned about it either.) Read carefully how the accused family responded in the article. The tradition existed longer than the constitution, therefore tradition (not constitution) should be followed. Unless someone tells me this report is untrue or rare case (BTW, NYT made it clear that it’s common), this information is also likely to be stored in my head and compared in the future. But does that mean I think all Indians are like that? Of course NOT.
If anyone learned about honor killing or controlled votes or even amused by newspaper ad placed by parents recruiting future mates for their children from this NYT article and repeated it later somewhere, will you call him/her “India basher” or “having an anti-India agenda” or even “prejudice against India”? If yes, I suggest you to tell NYT not to print that kind of articles again. If no, then why should I be called such? I basically did same thing. I think we are all “judgmental”.
I welcome first hand experience (the pizza story, etc.) and I of course welcome correction of any inaccurate or misinformation. Providing summery of your counter information is the best way, name callings are not going to prove your points.
CALLOFDUTY:
I like your pizza experience in India. (I’d like to see more of that kind.) I have heard of Domino’s emerging market expansion doing well but I did not know it’s also doing well in India. Proves my point, basic consumer goods will do well there. I am also glad to hear that Bangladesh people are thankful to India’s help. According to what you implied, because Bangladesh people is happy with India, so should the rest of the world on that matter. No problems. I am happy things worked out well for both. But can we also apply the same standard in nearby Afghan? Pakistan reportedly is very actively involving in Afghan’s internal affair aiming at influencing (if not controlling) that country once US withdraws. That causes great concern in India (in US too). I read only few days ago on MSN that a proxy war may break out in Afghan between India and Pakistan once US leaves, obviously because India can not sit back and watch Pakistan influencing Afghan. I think we can bet on that once US leaves, Taliban will control Afghan and you can further bet on a close relationship with Pakistan. Should India sit back and let Pakistan influence Afghan?
Regarding Tata motor’s new factory, I also heard of Maoists’ presence in West Bengal which actually proves georic’s point. But the Tata story was reported as one of the land dispute cases in this Business Week article (http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_42/b4151038045277.htm). I am little disagree with your comment that Tata’s relocation is same as foreign car makers investment in the south instead of Detroit. Tata’s had to abandon of its already selected factory site and relocate to another. Compare to that, foreign car makers SKIPPED the union dominated Detroit area and wen to the business friendly south at the first place. (They may have some suppliers in the north though), These two are not exactly same. It actually shows a potential risk or extra cost for companies planning factories in India that they may have to relocate as Tata did.
I let you ALL have the last words.