Comments on: Is China about to start exporting inflation? http://jubakpicks.com/2010/03/08/is-china-about-to-start-exporting-inflation/ Thu, 24 May 2012 00:51:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: EdMcGon http://jubakpicks.com/2010/03/08/is-china-about-to-start-exporting-inflation/comment-page-1/#comment-5135 EdMcGon Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:37:59 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3315#comment-5135 Here's a question folks: What would happen if the Fed raised rates tomorrow? I'll give you the answer: deflation. For now, stay away from gold and inflation-sensitive commodities like oil. If the Fed tries to pull liquidity too soon, all bets on inflation are off: there won't be any inflation. As for China exporting inflation, don't bet on it. If anything, they will do a small adjustment to the RMB/$ peg (maybe 1% or less). The Chinese government is notoriously conservative. The only time they make big economic moves is when the economy seems to be running beyond their conservative targets. Here’s a question folks: What would happen if the Fed raised rates tomorrow?

I’ll give you the answer: deflation.

For now, stay away from gold and inflation-sensitive commodities like oil. If the Fed tries to pull liquidity too soon, all bets on inflation are off: there won’t be any inflation.

As for China exporting inflation, don’t bet on it. If anything, they will do a small adjustment to the RMB/$ peg (maybe 1% or less). The Chinese government is notoriously conservative. The only time they make big economic moves is when the economy seems to be running beyond their conservative targets.

]]> By: amtrend10 http://jubakpicks.com/2010/03/08/is-china-about-to-start-exporting-inflation/comment-page-1/#comment-5133 amtrend10 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:26:10 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3315#comment-5133 Inflation figures are a joke. The two obvious contributors to rising cost are energy and food. That is why they are not included. If I reverse the numbers and just count bread and energy and not say tech and autos then my personal cost increase over 5 years is around 200%. The real joke is how the namby-pamby investors react to these reports like they are reliable. So the poll takers control the market which is really sending mixed messages on a regular bases. No wonder the volume is down. No one likes to be manipulated. Inflation figures are a joke. The two obvious contributors to rising cost are energy and food. That is why they are not included. If I reverse the numbers and just count bread and energy and not say tech and autos then my personal cost increase over 5 years is around 200%. The real joke is how the namby-pamby investors react to these reports like they are reliable. So the poll takers control the market which is really sending mixed messages on a regular bases. No wonder the volume is down. No one likes to be manipulated.

]]> By: brianthisse http://jubakpicks.com/2010/03/08/is-china-about-to-start-exporting-inflation/comment-page-1/#comment-5130 brianthisse Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:39:11 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3315#comment-5130 Jim, What do you think of the American workers future, and our American tax base shrinking with so many jobs being exported to cheaper countries? Won't this affect the U.S. stock market? Jim,
What do you think of the American workers future, and our American tax base shrinking with so many jobs being exported to cheaper countries? Won’t this affect the U.S. stock market?

]]> By: andante http://jubakpicks.com/2010/03/08/is-china-about-to-start-exporting-inflation/comment-page-1/#comment-5129 andante Tue, 09 Mar 2010 06:13:11 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3315#comment-5129 For what it is worth, a chief economist at Deutsche Bank (Sieminski) when interviewed on Bloomberg today predicted that gold will fall back to $800/oz. He said this is predicted by looking at the relationship of the US dollar to the Euro and how it trades against the Euro and the prices of gold and oil. Says his FOREX people predict the dollar will strengthen this year while the Euro may test 1.30. Then, over the next few years, the dollar will continue to strengthen as the Fed raises interest rates. And the strength of the dollar will contribute to weakness in gold and oil prices. He said investors can continue to exploit China's commodity deficits but says aluminum will be a better opportunity than copper. For what it is worth, a chief economist at Deutsche Bank (Sieminski) when interviewed on Bloomberg today predicted that gold will fall back to $800/oz. He said this is predicted by looking at the relationship of the US dollar to the Euro and how it trades against the Euro and the prices of gold and oil. Says his FOREX people predict the dollar will strengthen this year while the Euro may test 1.30. Then, over the next few years, the dollar will continue to strengthen as the Fed raises interest rates. And the strength of the dollar will contribute to weakness in gold and oil prices. He said investors can continue to exploit China’s commodity deficits but says aluminum will be a better opportunity than copper.

]]> By: wsm http://jubakpicks.com/2010/03/08/is-china-about-to-start-exporting-inflation/comment-page-1/#comment-5118 wsm Mon, 08 Mar 2010 23:13:05 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3315#comment-5118 sigli: I don't see the kind of world wide demand that would absorb such price increases. What I do see is over-leveraged governments and consumers around the world, most of whom are cutting back out of necessity. sigli: I don’t see the kind of world wide demand that would absorb such price increases. What I do see is over-leveraged governments and consumers around the world, most of whom are cutting back out of necessity.

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