Comments on: My thin reeds say the first half of 2010 will be surprisingly strong in the U.S. http://jubakpicks.com/2010/02/18/my-thin-reeds-say-the-first-half-of-2010-will-be-surprisingly-strong-in-the-u-s/ Thu, 24 May 2012 00:51:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: rolfer1 http://jubakpicks.com/2010/02/18/my-thin-reeds-say-the-first-half-of-2010-will-be-surprisingly-strong-in-the-u-s/comment-page-1/#comment-4543 rolfer1 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 15:34:07 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3168#comment-4543 Jim, thin reeds indeed. Yes, consensus is now decent growth in Q1 & 2 of this year, then slow or no growth thru 2011 (that consensus has been in place for at least 6 months now.) How does credit card mailings (> 1 card per person in the US if your numbers are correct!), imply anything about growth or spending? Having a card is not spending. I haven't held anything but 0% cards for over 3 years now, but still only "spend" when a real need arises. OK, I can see some uptick in M&A activity by larger, solid companies, but true growth? No. Unemployment must come down first (M&A also results in reduced staffs, no?). Jim, thin reeds indeed. Yes, consensus is now decent growth in Q1 & 2 of this year, then slow or no growth thru 2011 (that consensus has been in place for at least 6 months now.)

How does credit card mailings (> 1 card per person in the US if your numbers are correct!), imply anything about growth or spending? Having a card is not spending. I haven’t held anything but 0% cards for over 3 years now, but still only “spend” when a real need arises.

OK, I can see some uptick in M&A activity by larger, solid companies, but true growth? No. Unemployment must come down first (M&A also results in reduced staffs, no?).

]]> By: viwi http://jubakpicks.com/2010/02/18/my-thin-reeds-say-the-first-half-of-2010-will-be-surprisingly-strong-in-the-u-s/comment-page-1/#comment-4499 viwi Sun, 21 Feb 2010 22:02:25 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3168#comment-4499 Jim, Whole Food is, indeed, not as expensive, as some people might think. You buy less junk (since now you start paying attention to all the prices of the junk food you buy) and you do not buy more food than you actually need. As a result, our bill went down. P.S. You can also notice that an average shopper at Whole Food weighs at least 20 pounds less than at Sam's Club. Jim,
Whole Food is, indeed, not as expensive, as some people might think. You buy less junk (since now you start paying attention to all the prices of the junk food you buy) and you do not buy more food than you actually need. As a result, our bill went down.
P.S. You can also notice that an average shopper at Whole Food weighs at least 20 pounds less than at Sam’s Club.

]]> By: Jim Jubak http://jubakpicks.com/2010/02/18/my-thin-reeds-say-the-first-half-of-2010-will-be-surprisingly-strong-in-the-u-s/comment-page-1/#comment-4476 Jim Jubak Fri, 19 Feb 2010 18:59:13 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3168#comment-4476 djpoints, WFMI launched a huge campaign during the recession to convince folks that it wasn't as expsensive as many people thought it was.(The company's nickname was Whole Paycheck.) And they emphasize the low prices--I'd agree with you there--of their private label goods. I'd still call it an aspirational store. Last time I was there I aspired to buy some Berkshire pork. Do you know how good these piggies are? Damn tghe cost. And I saved 40 cents on 2 packages of organic Mac and Cheese. djpoints, WFMI launched a huge campaign during the recession to convince folks that it wasn’t as expsensive as many people thought it was.(The company’s nickname was Whole Paycheck.) And they emphasize the low prices–I’d agree with you there–of their private label goods. I’d still call it an aspirational store. Last time I was there I aspired to buy some Berkshire pork. Do you know how good these piggies are? Damn tghe cost. And I saved 40 cents on 2 packages of organic Mac and Cheese.

]]> By: djpoints http://jubakpicks.com/2010/02/18/my-thin-reeds-say-the-first-half-of-2010-will-be-surprisingly-strong-in-the-u-s/comment-page-1/#comment-4459 djpoints Fri, 19 Feb 2010 15:54:39 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3168#comment-4459 Just a comment on Whole Foods being an "aspirational" retailer. Many people, and so many other families such as mine began shopping there much more during the recession, as reflected in their same-store sales. The reason? Because we're all looking for a more affordable substitue to nights that we used to eat out. Whole foods fills that need very well. And even more suprisingly, it's not that much more expensive than any of the other lesser grocery stores - we've noticed that about 30-40% of the stuff is actually cheaper. For this reason, I'm not sure Whole Foods is really the aspirational retailer that these researches think it is. And also the reason, I regret not buying more of it last year, when I noticed how busy the stores were and continue to be. I guess when it comes down to it, quality food is not something most people are willing to part with, especially when there is a relatively affordable option such as WF. Just a comment on Whole Foods being an “aspirational” retailer. Many people, and so many other families such as mine began shopping there much more during the recession, as reflected in their same-store sales. The reason? Because we’re all looking for a more affordable substitue to nights that we used to eat out. Whole foods fills that need very well. And even more suprisingly, it’s not that much more expensive than any of the other lesser grocery stores – we’ve noticed that about 30-40% of the stuff is actually cheaper.

For this reason, I’m not sure Whole Foods is really the aspirational retailer that these researches think it is. And also the reason, I regret not buying more of it last year, when I noticed how busy the stores were and continue to be. I guess when it comes down to it, quality food is not something most people are willing to part with, especially when there is a relatively affordable option such as WF.

]]> By: Brownte47 http://jubakpicks.com/2010/02/18/my-thin-reeds-say-the-first-half-of-2010-will-be-surprisingly-strong-in-the-u-s/comment-page-1/#comment-4452 Brownte47 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 12:20:17 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=3168#comment-4452 The Fed move will be interesting on Today's market. I do see some pent up demand. I helped a friend load a newly purchased washer the other day. I need to buy one too! (Computer, car and maybe a bigger house!) I have to admit that a government tax program does seem to get me off my duff to pull the trigger! Did I mention I have my first starting college in the fall. The Fed move will be interesting on Today’s market. I do see some pent up demand. I helped a friend load a newly purchased washer the other day. I need to buy one too! (Computer, car and maybe a bigger house!) I have to admit that a government tax program does seem to get me off my duff to pull the trigger! Did I mention I have my first starting college in the fall.

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