Comments on: Maybe the U.S. consumer is never coming back–and the global economy will stay awash in excess capacity http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/ Sun, 12 Feb 2012 18:19:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: twoyrfixed http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/comment-page-1/#comment-3908 twoyrfixed Thu, 04 Feb 2010 23:14:59 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2935#comment-3908 Jim, I don't understand this "is it a recession or not" thought process. Am I wrong in thinking that, (very, very, very) simply put, we're a broke country that prints money? If we can keep printing money, the market goes up (generally). If we can't, poof, then we become investors again because assets are priced fairly to the rules of the game. As I told my son 3 years ago "19 of 20 times, the doomsayers are wrong. This is the 20th time". Talking about whether this is a recession or not seems to be missing a MUCH more important picture. By the way, (he asks jokingly) how long do you think we keep printing/borrowing????? Jim,
I don’t understand this “is it a recession or not” thought process. Am I wrong in thinking that, (very, very, very) simply put, we’re a broke country that prints money? If we can keep printing money, the market goes up (generally). If we can’t, poof, then we become investors again because assets are priced fairly to the rules of the game. As I told my son 3 years ago “19 of 20 times, the doomsayers are wrong. This is the 20th time”. Talking about whether this is a recession or not seems to be missing a MUCH more important picture. By the way, (he asks jokingly) how long do you think we keep printing/borrowing?????

]]> By: Jim Jubak http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/comment-page-1/#comment-3691 Jim Jubak Tue, 02 Feb 2010 19:52:35 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2935#comment-3691 Hey bsorge, glad to see you found your way here. I'd agree. If things go to hell in a handbasket, almost nothing will make money. (Ammo and shotguns, perhaps). But I don't think we're talking about global depression or even U.S. depression but something like really painfully slow growth in the U.S. and slower than expected growth in the rest of the world. By the numbers it won't count as a recession, but it sure will feel like it. Hey bsorge, glad to see you found your way here. I’d agree. If things go to hell in a handbasket, almost nothing will make money. (Ammo and shotguns, perhaps). But I don’t think we’re talking about global depression or even U.S. depression but something like really painfully slow growth in the U.S. and slower than expected growth in the rest of the world. By the numbers it won’t count as a recession, but it sure will feel like it.

]]> By: amtrend10 http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/comment-page-1/#comment-3623 amtrend10 Sat, 30 Jan 2010 14:28:24 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2935#comment-3623 Regarding the political aspects, a fellow investor suggested that the pres missed his calling; he should have been an alchemist; by uttering a few random portions of half truths he is able to change gold to lead. lol. I 'm thinking we are all becoming traders more than investors. Regarding the political aspects, a fellow investor suggested that the pres missed his calling; he should have been an alchemist; by uttering a few random portions of half truths he is able to change gold to lead. lol.

I ‘m thinking we are all becoming traders more than investors.

]]> By: Gerarddm http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/comment-page-1/#comment-3619 Gerarddm Sat, 30 Jan 2010 04:13:32 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2935#comment-3619 A solid, pithy post, Jim. You have hit on some points also covered by Prechter's viewpoint about socionomics, i.e. social moods drives the markets, not the other way around. Lower/poorer employment will be endemic for awhile; that will color US spending for quite some time. I think spending will NOT be back to normal at all. A solid, pithy post, Jim. You have hit on some points also covered by Prechter’s viewpoint about socionomics, i.e. social moods drives the markets, not the other way around. Lower/poorer employment will be endemic for awhile; that will color US spending for quite some time. I think spending will NOT be back to normal at all.

]]> By: twoyrfixed http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/comment-page-1/#comment-3613 twoyrfixed Fri, 29 Jan 2010 22:13:35 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2935#comment-3613 Jim, Frankly, I'm with those that say spending will go back to normal. Except, obviously for the foreseeable future, it can't. I think most people still want a McMansion and a Beemer, the difference is there is no credit to buy such things. Anyway, what I've seen for 3+ years now, is what I'd call "the 60's effect". Meaning, vacationing via car at Yosemite for a week vs. Hawaii. Staying home and watching football on TV vs. going to a game. In-home poker games vs. Vegas. After reading your insights, I always pass your thoughts through my 1960's test and then invest (where applicable). Just my .02 Maybe you know a hot polyester manufacturer? Jim,
Frankly, I’m with those that say spending will go back to normal. Except, obviously for the foreseeable future, it can’t. I think most people still want a McMansion and a Beemer, the difference is there is no credit to buy such things. Anyway, what I’ve seen for 3+ years now, is what I’d call “the 60′s effect”. Meaning, vacationing via car at Yosemite for a week vs. Hawaii. Staying home and watching football on TV vs. going to a game. In-home poker games vs. Vegas. After reading your insights, I always pass your thoughts through my 1960′s test and then invest (where applicable). Just my .02

Maybe you know a hot polyester manufacturer?

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