Comments on: Alcoa delivers bad news for global profits http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/12/alcoa-delivers-bad-news-for-global-profits/ Sun, 12 Feb 2012 04:57:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: brucegolden http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/12/alcoa-delivers-bad-news-for-global-profits/comment-page-1/#comment-3043 brucegolden Wed, 13 Jan 2010 12:03:23 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2711#comment-3043 Jim - Looks like opportunity here right? should not there be an investment opportunity with the new lost cash cost aluminum producers/ If not Alcoa then are there investable companies who will proper/ I understand that most if not all of the Chinese suppliers are not investable but do you have a suggestion (maybe not Picks quality) of an opportunity? Jim – Looks like opportunity here right? should not there be an investment opportunity with the new lost cash cost aluminum producers/ If not Alcoa then are there investable companies who will proper/ I understand that most if not all of the Chinese suppliers are not investable but do you have a suggestion (maybe not Picks quality) of an opportunity?

]]> By: Jim Jubak http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/12/alcoa-delivers-bad-news-for-global-profits/comment-page-1/#comment-3028 Jim Jubak Tue, 12 Jan 2010 21:38:16 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2711#comment-3028 DJ, I think molybdenum is still in, but I'm getting concerned not about all fertilizers but about potash since there's a lot of capacity out there getting ready to go into production. Timing is all important on when that happens. DJ, I think molybdenum is still in, but I’m getting concerned not about all fertilizers but about potash since there’s a lot of capacity out there getting ready to go into production. Timing is all important on when that happens.

]]> By: DJBarber http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/12/alcoa-delivers-bad-news-for-global-profits/comment-page-1/#comment-3024 DJBarber Tue, 12 Jan 2010 19:31:01 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2711#comment-3024 Jim, You said "I don’t think it takes a whole lot of imagination to see how the aluminum crunch applies to other industries. In everything from potash to car parts the world has a tremendous amount of idle production capacity that’s just waiting to come back on line." Do you still stand by your opinion, "look for areas of tight supply that are likely to lead to sustainable price gains in 2010. Three areas to target, in my opinion, are iron ore (with annual price negotiations pointing to higher prices in 2010), fertilizer (with rising corn prices giving farmers more cash to put to work in their fields), and molybdenum (on rising auto global auto production.)” Or is Moly out (With China making it harder and more expensive to get auto loans) -Djbarber Jim,
You said “I don’t think it takes a whole lot of imagination to see how the aluminum crunch applies to other industries. In everything from potash to car parts the world has a tremendous amount of idle production capacity that’s just waiting to come back on line.”

Do you still stand by your opinion,

“look for areas of tight supply that are likely to lead to sustainable price gains in 2010. Three areas to target, in my opinion, are iron ore (with annual price negotiations pointing to higher prices in 2010), fertilizer (with rising corn prices giving farmers more cash to put to work in their fields), and molybdenum (on rising auto global auto production.)”

Or is Moly out (With China making it harder and more expensive to get auto loans)

-Djbarber

]]> By: DJBarber http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/12/alcoa-delivers-bad-news-for-global-profits/comment-page-1/#comment-3021 DJBarber Tue, 12 Jan 2010 19:17:19 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2711#comment-3021 I guess the bigger question is, is this impetus that traders need to confirm that the “recovery” isn’t what it seemed. Seems like what Jim said not to long ago, that this will be a year for selective recovery in commodities, is playing itself out…. Just wonder how far down we go across the board before traders believe that things have cooled off significantly enough to place bets on those selective commodities…. Could this be the start of the first 10 – 15% correction of the year…… Hmmmmmmmm……. I guess the bigger question is, is this impetus that traders need to confirm that the “recovery” isn’t what it seemed.
Seems like what Jim said not to long ago, that this will be a year for selective recovery in commodities, is playing itself out…. Just wonder how far down we go across the board before traders believe that things have cooled off significantly enough to place bets on those selective commodities…. Could this be the start of the first 10 – 15% correction of the year…… Hmmmmmmmm…….

]]> By: EdMcGon http://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/12/alcoa-delivers-bad-news-for-global-profits/comment-page-1/#comment-3017 EdMcGon Tue, 12 Jan 2010 18:23:49 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2711#comment-3017 Jim, conversely, shouldn't this work to the benefit of low-cost producers in other countries? You say that Alcoa needs to scrap it's high cost plants and build new ones in low-cost countries, but doesn't that also mean that the companies already in the low-cost countries have a leg up? In other words, should we look for the manufacturers already in the emerging markets? Jim, conversely, shouldn’t this work to the benefit of low-cost producers in other countries? You say that Alcoa needs to scrap it’s high cost plants and build new ones in low-cost countries, but doesn’t that also mean that the companies already in the low-cost countries have a leg up?

In other words, should we look for the manufacturers already in the emerging markets?

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