Comments on: The next bubble? Here’s a logical and surprising place to look http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/23/the-next-bubble-heres-a-logical-and-surprising-place-to-look/ Tue, 22 May 2012 22:19:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: swilson60 http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/23/the-next-bubble-heres-a-logical-and-surprising-place-to-look/comment-page-1/#comment-2067 swilson60 Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:56:54 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2272#comment-2067 I'm about to jump in TGBAX for a big portion of the bond allocation of my portfolio. Is TGBAX sovereign debt? I’m about to jump in TGBAX for a big portion of the bond allocation of my portfolio. Is TGBAX sovereign debt?

]]> By: willrwright http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/23/the-next-bubble-heres-a-logical-and-surprising-place-to-look/comment-page-1/#comment-2007 willrwright Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:26:10 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2272#comment-2007 Maybe Dubai's troubles will force investors to consider sovereign defaults more seriously. I think it's mostly an issue for countries that cannot print their way out of it -- Italy and Greece for example. Maybe Dubai’s troubles will force investors to consider sovereign defaults more seriously. I think it’s mostly an issue for countries that cannot print their way out of it — Italy and Greece for example.

]]> By: joshpaul http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/23/the-next-bubble-heres-a-logical-and-surprising-place-to-look/comment-page-1/#comment-1943 joshpaul Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:51:21 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2272#comment-1943 Jim, Thanks for another insightful article. One thing I don't understand: you say that for the sovereign debt bubble to burst "...a default or near default on sovereign debt by a major developed country, would have to send the prices of sovereign debt plunging." I don't understand what might cause a default by the three major developed countries that you mention:The US, UK and Japan. If any of these three were on the brink of default, would they not simply turn on the presses and print new money to meet their obligations? Of course there are inflationary consequences to that, but that would seem preferable to another systemic collapse. Or would markets interpret this monetizing the debt as a de facto default anyway? Jim,
Thanks for another insightful article. One thing I don’t understand: you say that for the sovereign debt bubble to burst “…a default or near default on sovereign debt by a major developed country, would have to send the prices of sovereign debt plunging.”
I don’t understand what might cause a default by the three major developed countries that you mention:The US, UK and Japan. If any of these three were on the brink of default, would they not simply turn on the presses and print new money to meet their obligations? Of course there are inflationary consequences to that, but that would seem preferable to another systemic collapse. Or would markets interpret this monetizing the debt as a de facto default anyway?

]]> By: Rostov http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/23/the-next-bubble-heres-a-logical-and-surprising-place-to-look/comment-page-1/#comment-1942 Rostov Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:27:04 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2272#comment-1942 I don't understand this paragraph: "Let’s not forget that one of the major causes of the crisis in the financial system—the reliance of banks and other big financial institutions the short-term commercial paper market—hasn’t changed significantly for many institutions. If banks can access that market to raise new cash or to roll over existing commercial paper borrowings, it would indeed produce another crisis." Did you mean to say " If banks can NOT access that market..." ? I don’t understand this paragraph:

“Let’s not forget that one of the major causes of the crisis in the financial system—the reliance of banks and other big financial institutions the short-term commercial paper market—hasn’t changed significantly for many institutions. If banks can access that market to raise new cash or to roll over existing commercial paper borrowings, it would indeed produce another crisis.”

Did you mean to say ” If banks can NOT access that market…” ?

]]> By: georic http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/23/the-next-bubble-heres-a-logical-and-surprising-place-to-look/comment-page-1/#comment-1941 georic Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:20:48 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2272#comment-1941 Jim, if I read you right, catastrophy is around the corner: in "killed in a correction" Oct 14th, you foresaw big danger lurking in 2010, second half, now, if we make it, Countries defaulting on their debt in 2011. Can you suggest a survival kit? Jim, if I read you right, catastrophy is around the corner: in “killed in a correction” Oct 14th, you foresaw big danger lurking in 2010, second half, now, if we make it, Countries defaulting on their debt in 2011. Can you suggest a survival kit?

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