Comments on: My guide to how to worry: Know what to worry about and when if you don’t want to get spooked out of a rally–or get killed in a correction http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/18/know-what-to-worry-about-and-when-if-you-dont-want-to-get-spooked-out-of-a-rally-or-get-killed-in-a-correction/ Sun, 14 Mar 2010 11:18:11 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: dblwyo http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/18/know-what-to-worry-about-and-when-if-you-dont-want-to-get-spooked-out-of-a-rally-or-get-killed-in-a-correction/comment-page-1/#comment-1877 dblwyo Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:51:25 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=1646#comment-1877 Thought it was a great column at the time and as much as know. Might be worth re-visiting each touchpoint from time to time. 1) CRE - worse (cf. Lockhart's speech) and draining credit from small business => no jobs! 2) Not so good at all. Earnings beats were still a) lowered guidance, b) game-playing and shilling (numerous sources including Kass and WSJ) and c) cost cutting. Try this: http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/11/reality_vs_delustion_check_ear.html 3) General consensus from Kasriel to OECD (yesterday) to OMB that we're facing years of 2.5% real growth. Takes 5% to reduce unemployment. Political induced backlash on "stimulus" means no more. Danger, Will Robinson, Danger. 4) Modified Taylor Rule (cf. Krugman's recent columns) indicates low rates thru 2011 and into 2012. As does Kasriel and CalculatedRisk. 5) Cf. #3 - no jobs, no demand, no growth. No support no more stimulus. Reduce deficit now and oops. Cf. Bruce Bartlett among others already cited. We're playing in an over-valued trader's market here not fundamentals (as you've pointed out). Thought it was a great column at the time and as much as know. Might be worth re-visiting each touchpoint from time to time.
1) CRE – worse (cf. Lockhart’s speech) and draining credit from small business => no jobs!
2) Not so good at all. Earnings beats were still a) lowered guidance, b) game-playing and shilling (numerous sources including Kass and WSJ) and c) cost cutting. Try this:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/11/reality_vs_delustion_check_ear.html
3) General consensus from Kasriel to OECD (yesterday) to OMB that we’re facing years of 2.5% real growth. Takes 5% to reduce unemployment. Political induced backlash on “stimulus” means no more. Danger, Will Robinson, Danger.
4) Modified Taylor Rule (cf. Krugman’s recent columns) indicates low rates thru 2011 and into 2012. As does Kasriel and CalculatedRisk.
5) Cf. #3 – no jobs, no demand, no growth. No support no more stimulus. Reduce deficit now and oops. Cf. Bruce Bartlett among others already cited.
We’re playing in an over-valued trader’s market here not fundamentals (as you’ve pointed out).

]]> By: jgial http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/18/know-what-to-worry-about-and-when-if-you-dont-want-to-get-spooked-out-of-a-rally-or-get-killed-in-a-correction/comment-page-1/#comment-1868 jgial Thu, 19 Nov 2009 03:23:27 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=1646#comment-1868 GREAT INFO JIM. and dddont mind typos GREAT INFO JIM. and dddont mind typos

]]> By: DJBarber http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/18/know-what-to-worry-about-and-when-if-you-dont-want-to-get-spooked-out-of-a-rally-or-get-killed-in-a-correction/comment-page-1/#comment-1860 DJBarber Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:06:51 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=1646#comment-1860 Mr. Jubak, Thats the one I was looking for but could not find (Even with the c"Tags" below. ) Thanks much, I'll paste it to my forhead ! DJBarber Mr. Jubak,

Thats the one I was looking for but could not find (Even with the c”Tags” below. )
Thanks much, I’ll paste it to my forhead !

DJBarber

]]> By: Astrid http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/18/know-what-to-worry-about-and-when-if-you-dont-want-to-get-spooked-out-of-a-rally-or-get-killed-in-a-correction/comment-page-1/#comment-1858 Astrid Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:31:06 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=1646#comment-1858 Very helpful. Thanks so much! Very helpful. Thanks so much!

]]> By: Billy T http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/18/know-what-to-worry-about-and-when-if-you-dont-want-to-get-spooked-out-of-a-rally-or-get-killed-in-a-correction/comment-page-1/#comment-1430 Billy T Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:16:40 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=1646#comment-1430 #4 (Unwinding dollar carry trade) need not wait for FED to raise interest rates. Today Brazil placed a 2% tax (called IOF) on all FDI into Brazil. The IOF (tax on financial transactions) applies to both FDI buying and also then after selling asset to the repatriation of funds (a 4% total burden). The flood of dollars into Brazil has caused great problems for Brazil's exporters as the Real grew stronger. In some sense, the US pumping out liquidity damaged Brazil so this is only a self defense measure. #4 (Unwinding dollar carry trade) need not wait for FED to raise interest rates. Today Brazil placed a 2% tax (called IOF) on all FDI into Brazil.

The IOF (tax on financial transactions) applies to both FDI buying and also then after selling asset to the repatriation of funds (a 4% total burden).

The flood of dollars into Brazil has caused great problems for Brazil’s exporters as the Real grew stronger. In some sense, the US pumping out liquidity damaged Brazil so this is only a self defense measure.

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