Comments on: The unemployment rate is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do before an upturn in hiring http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/06/the-unemployment-rate-is-doing-exactly-what-its-supposed-to-do-before-an-upturn-in-hiring/ Sat, 19 May 2012 20:47:22 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: dflynn1162 http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/06/the-unemployment-rate-is-doing-exactly-what-its-supposed-to-do-before-an-upturn-in-hiring/comment-page-1/#comment-1696 dflynn1162 Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:33:53 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2073#comment-1696 Some reporters/experts have suggested that our economy is changing from a consumption based economy to a discovery- or knowledge-based economy. Whatever is happening these days, I feel like our economy is being reconfigured from what it was into something very different. In a way, these may be very historic times. So, it's I think it will be interesting to see where we land when employment picks up and new businesses take off with new business paradigms. But, meanwhile, my heart breaks whenever I hear a story of a decent, working-class individual who lost their job and can't find a new one. I hope this changes very soon. Some reporters/experts have suggested that our economy is changing from a consumption based economy to a discovery- or knowledge-based economy. Whatever is happening these days, I feel like our economy is being reconfigured from what it was into something very different. In a way, these may be very historic times. So, it’s I think it will be interesting to see where we land when employment picks up and new businesses take off with new business paradigms. But, meanwhile, my heart breaks whenever I hear a story of a decent, working-class individual who lost their job and can’t find a new one. I hope this changes very soon.

]]> By: dermp1 http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/06/the-unemployment-rate-is-doing-exactly-what-its-supposed-to-do-before-an-upturn-in-hiring/comment-page-1/#comment-1695 dermp1 Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:13:13 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2073#comment-1695 I am not sure that we will see a recovery in the job market anytime soon. The fiscal policies occurring in Washington are making businesses sqeamish about hiring especially small businesses which represent a large engine for job creation in this country. The health care proposal before the House could raise the cost for small business substantially. In addition, the so called Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2010- this is a double whamy. The "Cap and Trade" proposal if implemented will also be a job buster as far as business is concerned. So the Congress and Administration seem bent on implementing policies that will hurt job growth in this land for the forseeable future. This does appear to be a jobless recovery, at least at this time, and I personally don't see better times in the near term. For the long haul I believe things will improve but very slowly with policies in place at this time. For this reasoning, I am cautious but I like Jim's idea on LYNAS CORP as well as other commodity based investment opportunities. Mr. Buffet's recent deployment of capital suggests however that he is optimistic, but he is paying a big price and it may take time to see any fruit come off that tree. Time will tell. As my father used to say, time is the salve for all wounds . I am not sure that we will see a recovery in the job market anytime soon. The fiscal policies occurring in Washington are making businesses sqeamish about hiring especially small businesses which represent a large engine for job creation in this country. The health care proposal before the House could raise the cost for small business substantially. In addition, the so called Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2010- this is a double whamy. The “Cap and Trade” proposal if implemented will also be a job buster as far as business is concerned. So the Congress and Administration seem bent on implementing policies that will hurt job growth in this land for the forseeable future.

This does appear to be a jobless recovery, at least at this time, and I personally don’t see better times in the near term. For the long haul I believe things will improve but very slowly with policies in place at this time. For this reasoning, I am cautious but I like Jim’s idea on LYNAS CORP as well as other commodity based investment opportunities.

Mr. Buffet’s recent deployment of capital suggests however that he is optimistic, but he is paying a big price and it may take time to see any fruit come off that tree.

Time will tell. As my father used to say, time is the salve for all wounds

.

]]> By: kelvinator http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/06/the-unemployment-rate-is-doing-exactly-what-its-supposed-to-do-before-an-upturn-in-hiring/comment-page-1/#comment-1692 kelvinator Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:14:09 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2073#comment-1692 Economists everywhere repeat that unemployment is a lagging indicator. However, stats released today showed consumer credit contracting for the 8th straight month and surprising hugely to the downside for September, with a contraction of -$14.8 billion when -$9.9 billion was expected. 3Q credit card debt had a record -10% annual decline. Like unemployment, these unhappy stats could be lagging indicators, too, the darkest point before the dawn - but given the also familiar saying that consumers are 70% of the economy, it has to be acknowledged in this particular recession, these stats could take on a life of their own and turn unemployment into a leading indicator driving the economy downward into a double dip. Jim's job is to be a risk taker in stocks, and he's one of the best, making an intelligent guesstimate that the huge amount of government money and underwriting will underwrite the economy and market, at least for now. That seems like a reasonable view to me. Every investor, though, has to weigh the risk of being wrong vs the reward for being right. Risking a 35% loss to gain 15%, may not be a great bet, for example. Right now, many stock professionals tend to be in risk taking mode, having a variation of Jim's view. Almost all of them, including Jim, didn't see the bottom about to drop out last time. Shall we assume that they will this time? My own solution at this point has been to keep a large portion of assets in gold, be long commodity stocks of various sorts including some of which Jim recommends and hedge against a general market decline. I consider this a risky environment - not that predictable. Economists everywhere repeat that unemployment is a lagging indicator. However, stats released today showed consumer credit contracting for the 8th straight month and surprising hugely to the downside for September, with a contraction of -$14.8 billion when -$9.9 billion was expected. 3Q credit card debt had a record -10% annual decline. Like unemployment, these unhappy stats could be lagging indicators, too, the darkest point before the dawn – but given the also familiar saying that consumers are 70% of the economy, it has to be acknowledged in this particular recession, these stats could take on a life of their own and turn unemployment into a leading indicator driving the economy downward into a double dip.

Jim’s job is to be a risk taker in stocks, and he’s one of the best, making an intelligent guesstimate that the huge amount of government money and underwriting will underwrite the economy and market, at least for now. That seems like a reasonable view to me. Every investor, though, has to weigh the risk of being wrong vs the reward for being right. Risking a 35% loss to gain 15%, may not be a great bet, for example. Right now, many stock professionals tend to be in risk taking mode, having a variation of Jim’s view. Almost all of them, including Jim, didn’t see the bottom about to drop out last time. Shall we assume that they will this time?

My own solution at this point has been to keep a large portion of assets in gold, be long commodity stocks of various sorts including some of which Jim recommends and hedge against a general market decline. I consider this a risky environment – not that predictable.

]]> By: brian@shamblen.com http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/06/the-unemployment-rate-is-doing-exactly-what-its-supposed-to-do-before-an-upturn-in-hiring/comment-page-1/#comment-1691 brian@shamblen.com Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:06:38 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2073#comment-1691 reponse to Shunngai about productivity: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125742744080829139.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_news reponse to Shunngai about productivity:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125742744080829139.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_news

]]> By: shunngai http://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/06/the-unemployment-rate-is-doing-exactly-what-its-supposed-to-do-before-an-upturn-in-hiring/comment-page-1/#comment-1689 shunngai Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:35:44 +0000 http://jubakpicks.com/?p=2073#comment-1689 Agree, but wouldn't the productivity per each employee increase first before they actually start hiring full time, and is there any information about that? Agree, but wouldn’t the productivity per each employee increase first before they actually start hiring full time, and is there any information about that?

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