Comments on: Will bad commercial real estate loans set off Banking Crisis II?

By: Spammin

Spammin — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:52:27 +0000

Hi Jim,
Any thoughts on the earnings reports on ZION and CMA yet? I suspect you are waiting for the third shoe to drop before commenting, but I think many of us are waiting with baited breath on that since it is the last hurdle until March in your “What to Worry About” article.

By: Jim Jubak

Jim Jubak — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:27:56 +0000

dblwyo, in the long run the financial markets will accurately reflect fundamental values–at least that’s the traditional wisdom. What no one ever tells you is that the long run can be really, really long. Or as Keynes said, In the long run we’re all dead. He also said, and should be hung over the desk of every investor: The market can stay irratiional longer than investors can stay solvent.

By: dblwyo

dblwyo — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 00:16:54 +0000

This is actually kind of funny, in bleak sort of way. Don’t I recall a JJ column on commercial problems and regional banks from Jan08? And of course our good buddy CalculatedRisk has been banging thest pots for about that long as well.

By: mp3106

mp3106 — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 21:22:09 +0000

a lot of these bad loans have been “hidden” by the way they have been renewed. One of the signs to look for is how they structure the interest payments. They are loaning the interest forward in the loan to pay it back to the bank. It makes the loan appear current but it is really a non performer.most of those loans will be nitemares when they mature.

By: terryw

terryw — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 20:22:07 +0000

But im sure the usual suspects like HSBC and ING will be mentioned.